Midas Oracle .ORG » Ryan http://www.midasoracle.org Prediction Markets, etc. Mon, 13 Feb 2012 22:24:30 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/22/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-4/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/22/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-4/#comments Tue, 23 Jun 2009 00:10:45 +0000 Ryan http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14795 Continue reading →]]> Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

World

On Sunday Tehran was relatively quiet compared to the past weeks street violence, but with fresh calls from the opposition for reforms and a new election it’s doubtful we’ve seen the worst of it. Despite the spirit of protesters, Hubdub forecasts there’s only a 16% chance Ahmadinejad is disempowered.

Politics
The battle for universal health care is heating up and any chances of a well behaved and restrained fight are quickly diminishing. How likely is that we’ll get the damn thing this year? Hubdub says we’ve only got a 48% chance.

Entertainment

After Indiana Jone’s last adventure involving aliens, the thought of another Lucas and Spielberg pillaging of a classic doesn’t have me too enthusiastic. Better yet it’s 96% likely the next Indiana Jones doesn’t have Harrison Ford in it.

Business
Is Steve Job’s return to Apple imminent? Well, judging from predictions on Hubdub and the latest news the answers yes!

Sport

The oldest and most prestigious tennis tournament in the world has had some of the most exciting matches, including last year’s instant classic with Nadal and Federer. Although Nadal is skipping Wimbledon, it’s no less exciting. Currently Roger Federer is the frontrunner with a 44% chance of wining Wimbledon.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets. Posted from the Hubdub blog.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/22/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-4/feed/ 0 Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/08/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-3/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/08/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-3/#comments Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:42:22 +0000 Ryan http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14515 Continue reading →]]> Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World
The complete tragedy of Air France Flight 447 may never be known, but with some luck those tasked with finding the remains of the plane and its passengers may discover the coveted ‘black box.’ It won’t be easy though, and within the working deadline for finding the ‘black box,’ Hubdub has the chances of recovery at only 44%.

Sport
The most anticipated sporting event this week is still the ongoing NBA playoffs. Last week the Lakers had only a even chance of wining compared to the Orlando Magic, this week though Hubdubbers make it a surefire bet it’s the Lakers for the win.

Politics

For anyone who thought British politics was boring and mundane, the recent expenses scandal in the UK is certainly creating a right fuss… Will it bring down Gordon Brown though? Well the expenses scandal and Brown’s staggering loss in recent elections in the UK, has his chances of being forced out in 2009 as high as 62% as of now.

Entertainment
David Carradine’s tragic death last week under ‘mysterious’ circumstances was shocking. His odd demise whether it was suicide or accidental, perhaps was caused by drugs? Hubdubber’s seem to think drugs a quite likely cause. There’s a 72% chance a autopsy shows drugs were in Carradine’s system.

This weekend three main movies are vying for contention at the box office, Up, The Hangover and The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3. Up has already received critical acclaim, but the comedy The Hangover is gaining ground this week. As of now Up though still seems to the be the likely winner at the box office.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets. Posted from newspundits blog.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/08/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-3/feed/ 0 Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/01/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-2/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/01/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-2/#comments Mon, 01 Jun 2009 12:57:12 +0000 Ryan http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=14278 Continue reading →]]> Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

World

The doomsday clock probably moved up another notch this week with North Korea flexing its military might. First a nuclear detonation, then missile tests and now the world awaits more irrational action. More missile tests between June 1 – June 7 have a 48% chance of occurring, and a new war in Asia has a 36% chance.

Sports
The NBA final is now underway, it’s a best of seven series, and as of now Hubdubbers only slightly favor the LA Lakers over the Orlando Magic.

The NHL playoffs are also underway this week. The final is between the Detroit Red Wings and the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Red Wings are certainly the front runners to win the best of seven series.

Science
The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins this week and the initial outlook calls for a 50% chance of a normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. Hubdub forecasts that in June and July there’s a equal 32% probability that we have either no storms or only one.

Politics
Barack Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor has evoked some criticism from the right, from questions of her sexuality to her views on abortion, but for now she seems to have weathered the storm. Abortion being the sticky issue it is, Sonia Sotomayor has a 69% chance of not specifying whether she is or isn’t pro-choice.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Cross Posted from Newspundits blog.

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/06/01/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week-2/feed/ 0 American Idol: The final two http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/18/american-idol-the-final-two/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/18/american-idol-the-final-two/#comments Mon, 18 May 2009 10:39:10 +0000 Ryan http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13853 Continue reading →]]> As we face the end of season eight, I find myself looking back. I knew from the first semi-final round that Kris Allen would be my favorite contestant and week after week he has performed brilliantly. Conventional wisdom suggests that Adam will carry the finale easily, however there are hints that this contest may be a little closer than many suspect. Ryan reported that only 1 million votes separated Adam and Kris in the penultimate episode and now during the finale the preponderance of Danny’s supporters are likely to switch to Kris. Unless Adam pulls out another “Mad World” level performance, I expect the odds to tighten up again before the finale.

But winning the competition is just part of the story. Ruben Studdard beat out Clay Aiken in season 2 and yet Clay has outsold him 2 to 1… Chris Daughtry came in fourth in his season and is the 4th most successful Idol ever… Some Idols just don’t make albums that anyone is interested in buying (*cough* Taylor Hicks *cough*). So, even assuming Adam wins, will the audience for his album be as big as Kris’s easy adult alternative sound? Or Allison’s “rocker chick”? Or Danny’s (um what’s his sound again?)? The unintentional release of the iTunes popularity bars for the contestants might suggest that Adam will win this competition hands down, but it’s hard to know exactly how appealing his actual album will be to fans and non-Idol consumers.

No matter who wins on Wednesday night, I’m looking forward to a great night of singing on Tuesday by two of the best singers in the competition (sorry you couldn’t join in Allison). Hopefully, there will be some fun guest stars (is Jason Mraz free??) and some chuckles at the expense of some truly awful performers (Tatiana/Norman Gentle duet?). But at the end of the day, its clear that both Adam and Kris have successful albums in their future and I know I’ll be buying Kris’ the day it comes out!

All the American Idol markets

Cross Posted from Hubdub Blog, written by Jenni

]]> http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/18/american-idol-the-final-two/feed/ 0 Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/04/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/05/04/hubdub-hot-predictions-this-week/#comments Mon, 04 May 2009 14:12:10 +0000 Ryan http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=13737 Continue reading →]]> Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week – and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics
Undoubtedly the biggest news coming out of Washington last week was the retirement of Justice Souter. As the dust settles, the focus is now on who will replace him. A smart trader wouldn’t forecast anyone just yet. That said though Sonia Sotomayor is getting a surprising amount of activity, now given a 42% chance of replacing Souter.

Science
Apparently the end isn’t nye, which is a bummer since for the last week I thought the zombie apocalypse might be upon us, and we all know how cool those look! There’s still a chance we face imminent annihilation though! Hubdubbers give the Swine Flu alert level rasing to 6 a 62% chance. Alert level 6 means we’re in a pandemic.

Entertainment
Yes that’s right American Idol will soon be over, and whatever your feeling about the show in general it has to be said it’s developing into a American Institution. This season Hubdub is forecasting Adam and Danny have a 79% chance of being the last two contestants standing.

Sport
This week the main NBA playoff game is between the Boston Celtics and Orlando Magic. Who will win? Hubdub says the current front-runner is Boston and the forecast is that they’re likely to win in 6 games.

World

Don’t hate the player hate the game! Or in bad Italian Non odiare il giocatore odia il gioco. Silvio Berlusconi, Italy’s Prime Minister is on the prowl for a ‘new thing,’ after his wife decided the 71 year-old’s flirtatious eye was too much. Currently Berlusconi, known for his young taste is 29% likely to next marry a 30 to 39 year-old.

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Cross Posted From NewsPundits

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