Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Author Archives: Robin Hanson

Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo

Written by Robin Hanson on February 2, 2008 — 12 Comments

HP began to explore prediction markets in 1996, but did not even consider applying them to the 2002 HP-Compaq merger. Similarly, Yahoo and Microsoft are two of the companies mentioned most often as being involved in prediction markets (along with their main competitor Google), but I’ll bet none are considering the by-far-most-valuable markets they could [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Proposals) | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Rushkoff on Crowd Sourcing

Written by Robin Hanson on January 14, 2008 — Leave a Comment

Douglas Rushkoff answering this year’s Edge question:
The Internet. I thought that it would change people. I thought it would allow us to build a new world through which we could model new behaviors, values, and relationships. … For now, at least, it’s turned out to be different. … The open source ethos has been [...]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry) | Tagged , , ,

Prediction Markets Definitions

Written by Robin Hanson on November 21, 2006 — 30 Comments

We should try to be more careful about our distinctions and definitions. I’m less concerned about whether we use the phrase “prediction market,” “information market,” “decision market,” or whatever; I’m more concerned about what exactly these phrases are intended to mean. Here are some possible concepts to distinguish (I’ll avoid naming them). [...]

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Explainers | Tagged