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The market moved but is it news?
In financial markets there is strong evidence to suggest that news gets priced into markets within 15 minutes of its release and sometimes even more quickly. Recent research into prediction markets suggests that they aren’t nearly as efficient with researchers from University of Pennsylvania showing that prices on IEM can be predicted using public news [...]
Polls over prediction markets?
‘Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors’ is a paper by Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezian that calls into question whether prediction markets, and specifically IEM, is as accurate as proponents of prediction markets claim. The paper was highlighted here where it was suggested that advocates of prediction markets were turning a [...]
Person-to-person freeform betting
Some time ago on Midas Oracle there was reference to flutter.com as one of the first sites that allowed users to create their own markets. I was lucky enough to be a product manager with flutter from mid-2000 through to early 2002 so I know the story very well. Flutter merged with Betfair in early [...]
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