Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Author Archives: Mike Linksvayer

PredictionBook

PredictionBook is a new prediction tracking site, as described at LessWrong, which:
lets you make predictions and then track your calibration – see whether things you assigned a 70% probability happen 7 times out of 10.
The major challenge with a tool like this is (a) coming up with good short-term predictions to track (b) maintaining your [...]

Intrade’s “Super Quick 8 Question Survey”

Intrade is promoting a “Super Quick 8 Question Survey” from their home page. [UPDATE: Results.] My answers:

Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts

I’ve used the Bob Barr contracts at Intrade to poke fun at the totally unrealistic expectations of Libertarian Party advocates (a couple times at Midas Oracle), so here’s a brief (and completely amateur) analysis of those contracts (and Nader contracts), post-election.
You may need to click on each chart to see the whole thing.
The probability of [...]

Futarchy Lite 2008

Below is a copy of a post yesterday on my personal blog. First, a couple asides for Midas Oracle readers.
After 2008
Two of Peter McCluskey’s four sets of contracts produced interesting results while all of Polimetrics’ were duds. (Not complaining; I’ll take the successes.) What should we take from this, other than a subsidy being helpful? [...]

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following?

In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM.
Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat nominee?

Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets

I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only [...]

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

I wonder if the following is a joke:
Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is strengthening.
Here is stock-type technical analysis applied to this contract. There is a large “cup” going back [...]

Bob Barr markets

Reason, a libertarian periodical, writes that the Bob Barr effect is “confirmed.” Because Obama’s campaign manager says it is.
Yes, pathetically a pro-market publication heeds the remarks of a political operative rather than markets that say Bob Barr will not make an impact.
Admittedly we have very little signal from prediction markets and lots of noise from [...]

Bob Barr candidacy fails market test.

Yesterday at about 5:30PM EDT the Libertarian Party (U.S.) nominated ex-Congressperson Bob Barr for U.S. President. Barr’s nomination does not appear to have been certain — it took five rounds of voting, including two rounds where he tied for first and one in which in placed second.
So what do the relevant prediction markets make of [...]

Small comforts of prediction markets

Yesterday I had dinner with a friend I hadn’t seen for a few years. I asked what he’d been doing, apart from being a nerd, and he said he’d been spending too much time following the U.S. presidential campaigns (actually just the Ron Paul campaign, but that’s not particularly relevant here). I realized that I [...]