Author Archives: Mike Linksvayer

About Mike Linksvayer

VP at Creative Commons - California, U.S.A. I place my original contributions at Midas Oracle in the public domain.

PredictionBook

Posted on October 19, 2009 by Mike Linksvayer

PredictionBook is a new prediction tracking site, as described at LessWrong, which: lets you make predictions and then track your calibration – see whether things you assigned a 70% probability happen 7 times out of 10. The major challenge with … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Forecasting (Science & Practice) | Tagged forecasting, forecasts, predicting, PredictionBook, Predictions | 1 Comment

Intrade’s “Super Quick 8 Question Survey”

Posted on September 5, 2009 by Mike Linksvayer

Intrade is promoting a “Super Quick 8 Question Survey” from their home page. [UPDATE: Results.] My answers:

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged InTrade, poll | Leave a comment

Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts

Posted on November 9, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

I’ve used the Bob Barr contracts at Intrade to poke fun at the totally unrealistic expectations of Libertarian Party advocates (a couple times at Midas Oracle), so here’s a brief (and completely amateur) analysis of those contracts (and Nader contracts), … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US presidential elections, Bob Barr, InTrade, prediction markets, Ralph Nader | 3 Comments

Futarchy Lite 2008

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

Below is a copy of a post yesterday on my personal blog. First, a couple asides for Midas Oracle readers. After 2008 Two of Peter McCluskey’s four sets of contracts produced interesting results while all of Polimetrics’ were duds. (Not … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Charting System, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged conditional prediction markets, decison-aid markets, futarchy, InTrade, prediction markets | 3 Comments

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008

Posted on September 11, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

How frequent are arbitrage opportunities such as the following? In addition to title, the reverse is true of OBAMA/DEM. Do traders really think there’s some probability of McCain being elected as an idependent and Obama being replaced as the Democrat … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hillary Clinton, InTrade, Joe Biden, John McCain, Politics, prediction market analysis, prediction markets, Sarah Palin, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 6 Comments

Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets

Posted on July 20, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Proposals), Philanthropy, Politics | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Independent Institute, Open Organizations, policy recommendations, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | 1 Comment

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts

Posted on June 28, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

I wonder if the following is a joke: Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Humor, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged event derivative markets, event derivatives, Humor, InTrade, Iran, Iran bombings, Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, prediction markets, war | 8 Comments

Bob Barr markets

Posted on June 26, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

Reason, a libertarian periodical, writes that the Bob Barr effect is “confirmed.” Because Obama’s campaign manager says it is. Yes, pathetically a pro-market publication heeds the remarks of a political operative rather than markets that say Bob Barr will not … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Prediction Journalism | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Bob Barr, campaign manager, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hallucinations, InTrade, Libertarian Party, political operative, Politics, prediction markets, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections | 2 Comments

Bob Barr candidacy fails market test.

Posted on May 26, 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

Yesterday at about 5:30PM EDT the Libertarian Party (U.S.) nominated ex-Congressperson Bob Barr for U.S. President. Barr’s nomination does not appear to have been certain — it took five rounds of voting, including two rounds where he tied for first … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, Bob Barr, InTrade, Libertarian Party, Politics, prediction markets, President, United States, US elections, US politics, US President, US presidential elections, Wayne Allen Root | 2 Comments

Small comforts of prediction markets

Posted on November 19, 2007 by Mike Linksvayer

Yesterday I had dinner with a friend I hadn’t seen for a few years. I asked what he’d been doing, apart from being a nerd, and he said he’d been spending too much time following the U.S. presidential campaigns (actually … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Politics, Prediction Journalism, Psychology | Tagged InTrade, prediction markets, United States | 3 Comments