Author Archives:
PredictionBook
PredictionBook is a new prediction tracking site, as described at LessWrong, which:
lets you make predictions and then track your calibration – see whether things you assigned a 70% probability happen 7 times out of 10.
The major challenge with a tool like this is (a) coming up with good short-term predictions to track (b) maintaining your [...]
Intrade’s “Super Quick 8 Question Survey”
Intrade is promoting a “Super Quick 8 Question Survey” from their home page. [UPDATE: Results.] My answers:
Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets
I was happy to notice that the Independent Institute, the pro-market think tank that published Entrepreneurial Economics in 2002, featuring a Robin Hanson chapter on decision markets (and much else good), published a blog post titled Forget Polls: Look at Prediction Markets on the Election. Unfortunately, while the post mentions prediction markets, they are only [...]
Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts
I wonder if the following is a joke:
Events these past few weeks make an airstrike on Iran more likely. The Intrade contract reinforces this view. While the probability remains moderate at 32%, the chart shows a market that is strengthening.
Here is stock-type technical analysis applied to this contract. There is a large “cup” going back [...]
Small comforts of prediction markets
Yesterday I had dinner with a friend I hadn’t seen for a few years. I asked what he’d been doing, apart from being a nerd, and he said he’d been spending too much time following the U.S. presidential campaigns (actually just the Ron Paul campaign, but that’s not particularly relevant here). I realized that I [...]