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- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Author Archives: Michael Giberson
Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets
Last year while working out a few thoughts on arbitrage opportunities in basketball tournament prediction markets at Inkling, it occurred to me that the Inkling pricing mechanism was just a little bit off for such applications. The question is whether … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated)
Tagged American League, basketball, Chris Hibbert, combinatorial markets, Daniel Reeves, David Pennock, George Levchenko, Inkling, inkling markets, internet users, Major, Major League Baseball, Market Scoring Rules, MLB, National League, NCAA, online office pool, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Sharad Goel, Tournaments, Yahoo!, Yiling Chen
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The future of futurism: crowds or entrepreneurs?
Chris Masse has already linked to The Economist story on futurists, which ends with a plug for prediction markets: The most heeded futurists these days are not individuals, but prediction markets, where the informed guesswork of many is consolidated into … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged Chris Masse, economist, entrepreneur, event derivative markets, event derivatives, futurism, futurists, futurology, George Bush, hedge funds, InTrade, Islamic Republic of Iran, John Seo, Lewis Scooter Libby, Michael Lewis, NYT Magazine, Osama bin Laden, prediction markets, risk
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Inkling’s Dead Radiohead Market
Radiohead’s pick-your-own-price experiment, industry redefining move, publicity stunt for their album “In Rainbows†has had its 15 days or so of fame. Is there anybody out there still caring? Maybe not. In fact, judging by Inkling’s own Radiohead prediction market, … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged Caveat Bettor, exchange manager, Global warming market, In Rainbows, Inkling, inkling markets, manager, prediction markets, pretty good marketing tool, Radiohead, Trader, USD
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Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs
— In his book, Plight of the Fortune Tellers, Riccardo Rebonato describes how an invitation to bet can be used to separate cheap talk from truly held beliefs (and, in the process, ruin an otherwise engaging dinner conversation). In the … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Betting, Prediction Journalism
Tagged Ann Coulter, author, Chris Masse, CJD, Julian Simon, London, Long bets, mad cow disease, Michael Moore, Naomi Klein, Pat Buchanan, Paul Erhlich, prediction markets, Riccardo Rebonato, Robin Hanson, simon exchange, United Kingdom, United States, university lecturer
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Austan Goolsbee on Iraq and the Collective Wisdom of Bond Markets
Austan Goolsbee, writing in the New York Times, discusses Michael Greenstone’s paper (discussed here at Midas Oracle in September) that examines the market for Iraq’s bonds for an assessment of the long-term future of the Iraq government. Goolsbee’s quick conclusion: … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Finance
Tagged Austan Goolsbee, bond market, Chris Masse, Collective Intelligence, French government, German government, Iraq, Iraq government, Iraqi government, Michael Greenstone, military officer, Professor, the New York Times, United Kingdom, USD, wisdom of crowds
2 Comments