Author Archives: Michael Giberson

About Michael Giberson

Energy Economist - Center for Energy Commerce, Rawls College of Business, Texas Tech University. - Texas, U.S.A.

CFTC approves box-office futures exchange —but might not approve its markets.

Today, the CFTC approved Media Derivatives Inc.’s request to create a futures exchange based on box office receipts.  The exchange “is primarily focused on the development of a variety of products to benefit the entertainment industry with one if its initially … Continue reading

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“Wisdom of crowds” in popular culture, again

“The wisdom of crowds” has apparently seeped a bit into popular culture, or at least the geekier end of it. On the heels of British illusionist Derren Brown’s invoking of “the wisdom of crowds” as a (false) part of his … Continue reading

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Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees?

President Barack Obama has created the “SAVE Award,” a process by which U.S. government employees can submit ideas for “how their agency can save money and perform better.” A committee of senior officials from the Office of Management and Budget … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 18 Comments

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts?

Contrary to the suggestion of Hendry and Reade, I don’t think “model averaging” is a useful explanation of what prediction markets do. Continue reading

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What’s the big deal about the fluff on prediction markets in The Economist?

Chris Masse has posted several times about the recent piece on prediction markets in The Economist. Among his recent grand pronoucements: “If you are a prediction market consultant, and have nothing to say about the negative piece from The Economist, … Continue reading

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Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance?

Giberson asks, “Where is the 2008 post-election academic conference on prediction market performance going to be?” Continue reading

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Quit mulling over the VP-choice prediction markets, today’s real story is in the election winner markets.

I would suggest that the VP selections and the performance of the VP-choice markets at InTrade and elsewhere lend some validity to Chris Masse’s views on such markets. But enough about the VP markets, already. The interesting developments are in … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

What public interests are served by event contracts?

Comments continue to trickle in at the U.S. CFTC, in response to the agencies request for comments on its “concept paper on event contracts.” You can find the comments posted so far, all seven of them, on the CFTC’s website. … Continue reading

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Is the promise of prediction markets in the United States best explored in limited, small stakes markets under a CFTC safe harbor declaration?

I haven’t turned up the latest edition of Science magazine mentioned yesterday by Chris F. Masse, but a version of the Science article “The Promise of Prediction Markets“, is available from the AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies (find … Continue reading

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The CFTC takes a necessary step toward sorting out its role with respect to prediction markets.

As noted here in multiple posts over the past few days, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is thinking about prediction markets. Last week it released a “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts” and invited public … Continue reading

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