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Author Archives: Michael Giberson
CFTC approves box-office futures exchange —but might not approve its markets.
Today, the CFTC approved Media Derivatives Inc.’s request to create a futures exchange based on box office receipts. The exchange “is primarily focused on the development of a variety of products to benefit the entertainment industry with one if its initially … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Financial Markets, Regulations
Tagged betting markets, Cantor Exchange, Cantor Fitzgerald, CFTC, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, derivatives, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, MDEX, movie box office, movie business, movies, prediction markets, Trend Exchange
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“Wisdom of crowds” in popular culture, again
“The wisdom of crowds” has apparently seeped a bit into popular culture, or at least the geekier end of it. On the heels of British illusionist Derren Brown’s invoking of “the wisdom of crowds” as a (false) part of his … Continue reading
What’s the big deal about the fluff on prediction markets in The Economist?
Chris Masse has posted several times about the recent piece on prediction markets in The Economist. Among his recent grand pronoucements: “If you are a prediction market consultant, and have nothing to say about the negative piece from The Economist, … Continue reading
Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance?
Giberson asks, “Where is the 2008 post-election academic conference on prediction market performance going to be?” Continue reading
Is the promise of prediction markets in the United States best explored in limited, small stakes markets under a CFTC safe harbor declaration?
I haven’t turned up the latest edition of Science magazine mentioned yesterday by Chris F. Masse, but a version of the Science article “The Promise of Prediction Markets“, is available from the AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies (find … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Economics, Politics, Regulations
Tagged AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies, American Enterprise Institute, CFTC, Charles R. Plott, Chris F. Masse, Congress, Daniel Kahneman, event derivative markets, event derivatives, hard-core PM, Iowa Electronic Markets, prediction markets, Regulations, Robert Hahn, Shyam Sunder, sports events, United States, USD
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The CFTC takes a necessary step toward sorting out its role with respect to prediction markets.
As noted here in multiple posts over the past few days, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is thinking about prediction markets. Last week it released a “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts” and invited public … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Politics, Regulations
Tagged CFTC, Chris F. Masse, Chris Hibbert, Chris Masse, Congress, David Pennock, event derivative markets, event derivatives, laws, prediction markets, regulation, Regulations, United States, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission
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