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What’s the big deal about the fluff on prediction markets in The Economist?
Chris Masse has posted several times about the recent piece on prediction markets in The Economist. Among his recent grand pronoucements:
“If you are a prediction market consultant, and have nothing to say about the negative piece from The Economist, then you don’t matter anymore.”
Really?
What is it that The Economist said that prediction market consultants should [...]
Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance?
Giberson asks, “Where is the 2008 post-election academic conference on prediction market performance going to be?”
Is the promise of prediction markets in the United States best explored in limited, small stakes markets under a CFTC safe harbor declaration?
I haven’t turned up the latest edition of Science magazine mentioned yesterday by Chris F. Masse, but a version of the Science article “The Promise of Prediction Markets“, is available from the AEI Center for Regulatory and Market Studies (find link to article on this page).
The first thing of note is that the extensive list [...]
The CFTC takes a necessary step toward sorting out its role with respect to prediction markets.
As noted here in multiple posts over the past few days, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is thinking about prediction markets. Last week it released a “Concept Release on the Appropriate Regulatory Treatment of Event Contracts” and invited public comments on several questions as it attempts to sort out its proper role, if any, [...]
Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets
Last year while working out a few thoughts on arbitrage opportunities in basketball tournament prediction markets at Inkling, it occurred to me that the Inkling pricing mechanism was just a little bit off for such applications. The question is whether something better can be done. An answer comes from the folks at Yahoo Research: yes.
Inkling’s [...]
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