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How much betting will we see?
There is almost always a huge run-up in betting activity on prediction markets right before and during an event (this is equally true for sports as well as elections). In my posting about this over at Betfair’s new blog, I show that in the 2004 Presidential cycle over half of all bets were made on [...]
The Value of Tom Brady?
New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday’s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport’s contract on whether the Pats would win the Super Bowl fell about 5 points (from 21 to 16). Then at about [...]
Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
There has been an unexploited arbitrage opportunity in the Intrade Democratic VP market (”2008 Democratic VP Nominee (others upon request)”). As the attachment shows, you can sell the slate of candidates for 123.2 (just sum the bids) while you will only have to payout 100. This possibility has existed for at least three weeks, and [...]
Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets
hile prediction markets have been in the spotlight this year, they are still unfamiliar to many folks. As one small step towards improving their visibility, along with my colleague James Lemieux I ran a prediction market at the University of Kansas School of Business. The markets ran for three and a half months and almost [...]
Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November)
The conference will be held next Thursday (1 November) at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007) and the schedule is listed below.
I am pleased to note that Mat Fogarty (Founder and CEO, Xpree) and Alexander Costakis (Managing Director, HSX) have been added to [...]
Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007)
I have organized a conference on corporate prediction markets which may be of interest to Midas Oracle readers. It will take place on 1 November at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007/PredictionMarketsConference.html) with some background available on the conference flier (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007/PredictionMarketsConference_Flier.html). Note that this [...]
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