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- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
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Author Archives: Koleman Strumpf
How much betting will we see?
There is almost always a huge run-up in betting activity on prediction markets right before and during an event (this is equally true for sports as well as elections). In my posting about this over at Betfair’s new blog, I … Continue reading
The Value of Tom Brady?
New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady suffered a season-ending injury during yesterday’s game with the Kansas City Chiefs. After he left the game and before the extent of the injury was known, the TradeSport’s contract on whether the Pats would … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Sports
Tagged American football, experiment, football, National Football League, New England Patriots, NFL, prediction markets, Sports, Super Bowl, Tom Brady, TradeSports
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Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
There has been an unexploited arbitrage opportunity in the Intrade Democratic VP market (“2008 Democratic VP Nominee (others upon request)”). As the attachment shows, you can sell the slate of candidates for 123.2 (just sum the bids) while you will … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, arbitrage, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Politics, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, trading data analysis, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, US Vice President, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VPs
18 Comments
Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets
hile prediction markets have been in the spotlight this year, they are still unfamiliar to many folks. As one small step towards improving their visibility, along with my colleague James Lemieux I ran a prediction market at the University of … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Cases, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged Adam, Adam Siegel, Business School, classroom, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Finance, Google, Inkling, James Lemieux, Koleman Strumpf, market administrators, Nate Kontny, pedagogical tool, prediction markets, traders, trading participation, University of Kansas School of Business
11 Comments
Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November)
The conference will be held next Thursday (1 November) at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the conference webpage (http://people.ku.edu/~cigar/PMConf_2007) and the schedule is listed below. I am pleased to note that Mat … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Events & Meetings
Tagged AEI-Brookings Joint Center on Regulatory Studies, Alexander Costakis, Arizona, Best Buy, Brookings Institution, CEO, Chapman University School of Law, Christina Ann LaComb, Co-Founder and CEO, Co-Founder and President, Consensus, David Perry, Dawn Keller, Department of Economics, Director, Discussion, Eller College of Management, Eric Zitzewitz, Founder and CEO, General, George Mason, George Mason Department of Economics, Google, Henry Berg, Hollywood Stock Exchange, HSX, InTrade, Jim Lavoie, John Delaney, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kellogg, Managing Director, Marco Ottaviani, Mat Fogarty, Microsoft, Paul Rhode, prediction markets, President, Rite, Robert E. Litan, Robin Hanson, School of Management, Senior Fellow, Tom W. Bell, University of Arizona, VP Research and Policy, Xpree, Xpree Inc
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Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007)
I have organized a conference on corporate prediction markets which may be of interest to Midas Oracle readers. It will take place on 1 November at the Kauffman Foundation in Kansas City. All of the details are available on the … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Events & Meetings
Tagged AEI-Brookings Joint Center on Regulatory Studies, Arizona, Best Buy, Brookings Institution, CEO, Chapman University School of Law, Christina Ann LaComb, Co-Founder and CEO, Co-Founder and President, Consensus, David Perry, Dawn Keller, Department of Economics, Director, Discussion, Eller College of Management, Eric Zitzewitz, Founder and CEO, General, George Mason, George Mason Department of Economics, Google, Henry Berg, InTrade, Jim Lavoie, John Delaney, Kansas City, Kauffman Foundation, Kellogg, Marco Ottaviani, Microsoft, Paul Rhode, prediction markets, President, Rite, Robert E. Litan, Robin Hanson, School of Management, Tom W. Bell, University of Arizona, VP Research and Policy
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