Author Archives: Keith Jacks Gamble

About Keith Jacks Gamble

PhD Candidate - Economics (University of California, Berkeley) - California, U.S.A.

Market’s Bubble Bursts: Predictions Tie for Last Among 30 Experts

Posted on March 12, 2007 by Keith Jacks Gamble

Tradesports.com’s market for which bubble teams would make it to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament mis-predicted three selections. This performance ties for last among the selections of thirty experts. The top performer was The Bracket Project, which wrongly predicted only … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , | 10 Comments

simExchange a Keynesian Beauty Contest

Posted on March 6, 2007 by Keith Jacks Gamble

There’s an important difference between shares of ownership in real companies and these game shares. Shares of ownership in real companies have intrinsic value. Even for stocks that don’t pay dividends, shares of a real company represent ownership of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Trading | Tagged , , | 1 Comment

Top 5 Plays of the Super Bowl? Market says No.

Posted on February 10, 2007 by Keith Jacks Gamble

Someone pointed out to me that Protrade has posted their top 5 impact plays of the Super Bowl. But note that they derive the probability impact of each play from an unspecified algorithm. This algorithm estimated that the Bears had … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Super Bowl Analysis Highlights

Posted on February 9, 2007 by Keith Jacks Gamble

The Colts entered the game with a 68% chance of winning. The Bears winning the coin toss made them 0.5% more likely to win. Devin Hester’s kick return for a touchdown made the Bears 10.25% more likely to win. Thomas … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , | 31 Comments