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Market’s Bubble Bursts: Predictions Tie for Last Among 30 Experts
Tradesports.com’s market for which bubble teams would make it to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament mis-predicted three selections. This performance ties for last among the selections of thirty experts. The top performer was The Bracket Project, which wrongly predicted only one team, Syracuse instead of Arkansas. The consensus opinion of the thirty experts [...]
Top 5 Plays of the Super Bowl? Market says No.
Someone pointed out to me that Protrade has posted their top 5 impact plays of the Super Bowl. But note that they derive the probability impact of each play from an unspecified algorithm. This algorithm estimated that the Bears had a 50% chance of winning at the start of the game, which is far from [...]
Super Bowl Analysis Highlights
The Colts entered the game with a 68% chance of winning.
The Bears winning the coin toss made them 0.5% more likely to win.
Devin Hester’s kick return for a touchdown made the Bears 10.25% more likely to win.
Thomas Jones’ 52 yard run to the Colts’ 5 yard line had the biggest impact of any offensive play. [...]
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