Author Archives: Justin Wolfers

About Justin Wolfers

Business and Public Policy (University of Pennsylvania) - Pennsylvania, U.S.A.

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.

Posted on May 31, 2007 by Justin Wolfers

Both Eric Zitzewitz and I have recently noticed some suspicious activity in the InTrade market for whether Hillary Clinton will be elected President, with someone bidding up her odds from about 25 to around 40 (currently hovering at 38). This … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , | 4 Comments

The Economic Derivatives Market

Posted on March 8, 2007 by Justin Wolfers

For my money, the Economic Derivatives market is one of the most interesting prediction markets around. For starters, this market – run by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange – involves serious money, and it involves forecasting something we really care about … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

How important will the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act be? Markets think pretty important.

Posted on October 3, 2006 by Justin Wolfers

With news that the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act has passed the House, all eyes seem glued on Washington to see just how regulation of online gaming is going to change the industry. Looking at stockmarket reactions, it seems pretty … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments