Both Eric Zitzewitz and I have recently noticed some suspicious activity in the InTrade market for whether Hillary Clinton will be elected President, with someone bidding up her odds from about 25 to around 40 (currently hovering at 38). This just strikes as us too high, relative to her chances of even garnering the [...]
For my money, the Economic Derivatives market is one of the most interesting prediction markets around. For starters, this market – run by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange – involves serious money, and it involves forecasting something we really care about – the future of the economy.
I started studying this market over a year ago [...]
With news that the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act has passed the House, all eyes seem glued on Washington to see just how regulation of online gaming is going to change the industry.
Looking at stockmarket reactions, it seems pretty serious.
From today’s Guardian:
The online gaming industry’s bet that American legislators would never get around to outlawing [...]
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