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- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
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- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Author Archives: James Hamilton
Risk premia creeping higher
Since Halloween, financial markets seem to be getting spooked again. Larry Kudlow writes: Until recently, I thought the Fed could stand pat at their December 11th meeting. However, I have completely changed my mind in light of the continuing credit … Continue reading
GDP up, recession probability down
Fret as we all might, the U.S. economy just keeps on growing. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.9% annual rate in the third quarter. Housing remains in very bad shape, and … Continue reading
Inferring market expectations from changes in fed funds futures prices
I recently completed a new research paper studying how interest rates of different maturities change with market expectations of what the Fed is going to do next. Settlement on a fed funds futures contract is based on the average effective … Continue reading
Recession probability index rises to 16.9%
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, moving our recession probability index up to 16.9%. This post provides some background on how that … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Leading & Lagging Indicators, The Global Economy
Tagged Bureau of Economic Analysis, California, Emporia Telecom Isoetec IDS, James Hamilton, Marcelle Chauvet, National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, probability law, Professor, professor of economics, San Diego, t - 1, The Bureau of Economic Analysis, United States, University of California
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Combining forecasts
I have been suggesting that the best statistical approach, when confronted with conflicting signals such as the employment estimates from the BLS payroll survey, the separate BLS household survey, or the huge database from the private company Automatic Data Processing, … Continue reading
What will the Fed do next?
In talking about the Fed’s likely next move, it’s useful first to review how we got to where we currently are. The Fed now clearly understands that it overdid the stimulus in 2002-2004, and brought us uncomfortably close to a … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets
Tagged Ben Bernanke, Chair, Delaware, Dow Jones Construction, energy, energy prices, Federal Reserve Bank, Federal Reserve System, food, food prices, President, St. Louis, though at that point it, William Poole, Wilmington
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2006 and the Econbrowser crystal ball
This seems like a good time to review some of the occasions over the last year when I’ve been brave (or foolish) enough to make a specific quantitative prediction. December 8, 2005. Only 17 more (oil) shopping days until December … Continue reading
Accuracy of futures prices as predictors of the fed funds rate
I’m just finishing writing a new research paper whose goal is to come up with a better measure and understanding of the lagged effect of monetary policy on the economy. One of my claims is that the public’s expectations of … Continue reading
One way or the other
Something for everyone in this week’s data on housing from the Census Bureau. Pessimists will note the alarming 6% plunge during the month of September in seasonally adjusted new building permits. That one-month drop from the already low levels of … Continue reading