Author Archives: Guest Author

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Various blog authors - World, Planet Earth

Are InTrade lying about the number of ‘predictions’ they process? — [GUEST AUTHOR]

Posted on September 13, 2011 by Guest Author

Intrade now post the following claim on their home page: Platform Metrics (More Soon) Platform operational: Since 2001 Total Predictions: 619,141,899 Average Daily Predictions: 169,589 This is just a preposterous misrepresentation of the volume of activity on the site. The … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged BetFair, bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, liquidity, prediction, prediction markets | Leave a comment

The Robin Hanson manipulation papers make unrealistic assumptions, but it’s not like prediction markets are a bad idea…!!…

Posted on November 30, 2009 by Guest Author

In terms of unrealistic assumptions in Robin Hanson’s series of papers on manipulation, the major ones have been out there since at least 2004. Despite some limited evidence, the insistence on traders needing to know the direction of manipulation isn’t … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged Collective Forecasting, error, long-term markets, long-term prediction markets, manipulation, manipulations, market manipulation, market manipulations, prediction markets, Robin Hanson, self-fulfilling prophecy | 2 Comments

Deep Throat’s take of Emile’s take of the SAVE AWARD program

Posted on September 24, 2009 by Guest Author

Emile’s idea is a half-beauty contest, but if Emile thinks the OMB officials have expertise that won’t be swayed by the crowd, then the original SAVE AWARD process was half-good as well. The officials would be able to count the … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged Barack Obama, Collective Intelligence, information aggregation, Keynesian beauty contest, NewsFutures, SAVE Award, wisdom of crowds | 2 Comments

Annoying InTrade Outages

Posted on July 10, 2009 by Guest Author

InTrade usually closes the session for end of the day processing at 2am EST for 10-15 minutes. Yesterday (Thursday, July 10, 2009), it was 2.5 hours and counting. No advance notice and no explanation… —vintage InTrade. 2.5 hours is 10% … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged InTrade, InTrade outages, web servers | Leave a comment

Betdaq’s financials

Posted on July 3, 2009 by Guest Author

[This article by a guest author has been contested, for the reason that information about the bigger picture was missing. It is retired.]

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Business, Ethics, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged accounts, Betdaq, financials | Leave a comment

Intrade Meltdown

Posted on May 26, 2009 by Guest Author

Intrade has been experiencing a technical meltdown over the last 8 hours. The site was completely down from about 7pm EST Monday to 3am EST Tuesday. When it came back up there was no email explanation, no forum explanation. Those … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged customer service, InTrade, prediction markets, servers | Leave a comment

You’re the first to know that, because you’re listening to midasoracle.org, the group blog that digs deep to deliver you the latest on anything related to prediction markets (including rumors, bombastic statements and odd factoids).

Posted on January 29, 2009 by Guest Author

According to a source, Robin Hanson is awaiting delivery of a brand-new Apple Macintosh MacBook Pro 17″. – Previously -

Posted in Miscellaneous | Tagged Apple Macintosh, MacBook Pro, prediction markets, Robin Hanson | Leave a comment

Is this man the Cantor Exchange project leader?

Posted on December 9, 2008 by Guest Author

Richard Jaycobs??? UPDATE: Confirmed. He seems to be a man open to suggestions. – Previously: Cantor Exchange -

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange & Market Management, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, People | Tagged Cantor Exchange, Hollywood Stock Exchange, prediction markets, Richard Jaycobs | Leave a comment

Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets

Posted on September 19, 2008 by Guest Author

from: Cody Stumpo subject: Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets mailed-by: gmail.com Hi there, I am writing you as experts on prediction markets to ask what you think of some work I have done. At InTrade, you can … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Resources - References | Tagged Cody Stumpo, InTrade, prediction markets | Leave a comment

It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue.

Posted on August 26, 2008 by Guest Author

Signed: Deep Throat. APPENDIX: CNBC video + CNBC video #2 UPDATE: YouTube video (the last part was censored by InTrade-TradeSports CEO John Delaney – PRECISION: the discussion between the journalists and the guest on the TV set was suppressed) UPDATE: … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Prediction Journalism | Tagged CNBC, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, laws, legality, prediction markets, real-money prediction markets, Regulations | 1 Comment

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