Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Author Archives: George Tziralis

GIGO and prophets, tears and markets

Prediction markets failed to accurately predict the unexpected effect a few tears had on the New Hampshire primaries; and some analysts rushed to blame the tool and undermine its reliability and applicability. Let me restate some fundamentals and my view, in a snapshot:

Markets are not prophets, prophets do not exist.
A mechanism’s forecastability should not be [...]

50 askmarkets invites for Midas Oracle readers

Aiming at providing high-quality prediction markets services, both of unique elegance and zero learning curve, we plan to start deploying by going deep. And by deep we don’t refer to techcrunch, or walmart (yet), but to the biggest active community of prediction markets experts, midas oracle.
So, we start by giving you, the most demanding audience [...]

ads, auctions and markets: a proposal

Ads make the web go round. US internet advertisement expenditure is expected to surpass $21 billions in 2007, while the share of web ads in the UK is already bigger than ad spending in radio and newspapers. More specifically, adwords (+adsense) is maybe the single reason behind growth and sustainability of the biggest business fairytale [...]

The truth of the source code

Call it Occam’s razor, minimization of information entropy, or just KISS principle. Call it ‘less is more‘, usability or just common sense.
The question is, are the currently available prediction markets web services compliant with the era of attention economics? Are we able to attract a critical mass of users, thereby surpassing the tipping [...]

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today.

In a few hours, the workshop The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications starts at Palm Desert, California.
The quality of presenters is excellent and the workshop has succeeded in attracting high level contributions. The program and complete list of papers to be presented are available here, while directly related to prediction [...]

Hybrid Prediction Markets

Adam highlights the inevitability of prediction markets’ integration with CRM/ERP systems. Bo leads discussion to the right direction. I’d like to speculate further on Bo’s first point.
The integration with business intelligence software, corporate data warehouses and document indexes will definitely facilitate the task of information collection by traders. I claim that such an integration will [...]

An Extended Literature Review on Prediction Markets

Dear Midas Oracle readers,
I’m happy to report you the findings of my latest work, which has been accepted for publication in the inaugural issue of The Journal of Prediction Markets and is entitled as Prediction Markets: An Extended Literature Review. The final draft is available for download here.
The article, performed for the needs [...]

Prediction Markets Search Engine

Dear MidasOracle readers,
after using the Google Custom Search Engine, which was launched yesterday, I made an attempt to create one on prediction markets. The result Prediction Markets Search Engine focuses on a directory of nearly 100 websites, which are highly relevant to the concept and produces promising results. For example, you can see the [...]

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