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VP conditional probabilities
BetFair is running markets on both who will be the next vice president and who will be nominated by the two parties.
As we’ve discussed before in other contexts, one can divide two probabilities like these to obtain a conditional probability: e.g., if the Democrats put X on the ticket, they will win the general [...]
Volumes on InTrade are way up from 2004.
Just thought this might interest some of you:
Total volume in 2004 Democratic nomination markets: $5.2 million (data is taken from a talk I gave in San Diego)
Volume in 2008 Dem and GOP nomination markets (with 7 months to go before the primaries start): $24 million
Update:
CFM asks below whether the higher cumulative volumes on the 2008 [...]
Manipulation can affect prices.
For the last two weeks a very interesting manipulation has been going on in Intrade’s “Hillary Clinton for President” contract.
1. The contract had been trading between 23 and 26 all year. It has consistently been about half the price of the “Hillary to get nominated” contract price. This ratio implies that, conditional [...]
XM-Sirius merger
So at Justin’s and my suggestion, Intrade has just listed a contract on whether the XM-Sirius merger will close.
(We’ve been waiting for a nice, juicy, controversial merger like this ever since Hp-Compaq.)
Interestingly, the MM has it at 60 bid/70 ask to close by June 08, but if you look at the stock prices of XMSR [...]
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