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Recent Posts
- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Author Archives: Eric Zitzewitz
Is weather betting legal if you bundle it with auto leasing?
Pride Motors, a Boston area car dealer, is advertising the following special: Lease a car before August 26, and if it’s above 96 degrees at Boston Logan Airport on Labor Day, they will make your first 12 lease payments for … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Economics, Gambling, Regulations
Tagged Betting, Eric Zitzewitz, Gambling, Insurance, Jordan Furniture, laws, Pride Motors, Regulations, WeatherBill
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VP conditional probabilities
BetFair is running markets on both who will be the next vice president and who will be nominated by the two parties. As we’ve discussed before in other contexts, one can divide two probabilities like these to obtain a conditional … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics
Tagged 2008 US elections, 2008 US presidential elections, BetFair, Clinton, conditional probabilities, event derivative markets, event derivatives, guard, guard candidate, odds, Politics, prediction markets, probabilities, Republican Party, US elections, US politics, US presidential elections, vice president, vice presidents, VP, VP conditional probabilities
BetFair, VP conditional probabilities
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Volumes on InTrade are way up from 2004.
Just thought this might interest some of you: Total volume in 2004 Democratic nomination markets: $5.2 million (data is taken from a talk I gave in San Diego) Volume in 2008 Dem and GOP nomination markets (with 7 months to … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity
Tagged Republican Party, San Diego, USD
2 Comments
Manipulation can affect prices.
For the last two weeks a very interesting manipulation has been going on in Intrade‘s “Hillary Clinton for President” contract. 1. The contract had been trading between 23 and 26 all year. It has consistently been about half the price … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Market Calls), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged Bush, Greg Mankiw, Hanson, Hillary Clinton, media mention, Palm Desert, President, Republican Party, slightly weaker general election candidate, Tyler Cowen, USD
10 Comments
XM-Sirius merger
So at Justin’s and my suggestion, Intrade has just listed a contract on whether the XM-Sirius merger will close. (We’ve been waiting for a nice, juicy, controversial merger like this ever since Hp-Compaq.) Interestingly, the MM has it at 60 … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Business, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets
Tagged Compaq, XM
4 Comments