Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

Author Archives: Emile Servan-Schreiber

The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count

I’m puzzled by the way Intrade projects the electoral vote count on its home page. Two methods are proposed: (a) add up the votes of all the states that are “leaning” (>50%) for a candidate, or (b) compute a price-weighted average. The latter is obviously meaningless because electoral votes are winner-take-all in pretty much every [...]

NewsFutures Election Contest – Actually Win Something

Yesterday, NewsFutures launched a new contest on the US election, focusing on swing states. A way for us to beta test some new technology and some new UIs (this blogger/trader seems to like it so far.) As a reward, we’re offering X$5,000,000 to the best traders. That’s play money, but it’s significant play money: if [...]

NewsFutures Invents “Prediction Market Movies”.

A “prediction market movie” allows one to relive the excitement of past trading in a prediction market. For instance, the widget below brings back fond memories of the epic Clinton vs Obama primary battle. Isn’t it more fun than looking at a price chart?

(If you are reading this in a feed and the widget doesn’t [...]

NewsFutures Enterprise Prediction Market Workshop, NYC, 10/27

For aspiring practitioners and those intrigued by the applications of collective intelligence in the workplace, the typical prediction markets conference can be frustrating for lack of focus on practical knowledge and hands-on experience with the tools. That’s why NewsFutures is organizing a Wisdom of Crowds Consulting Workshop, in New York City, on October 27.
It [...]

Is Intrade out on a limb?

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind still favor a Democrat in the White House. That disconnect prompted Chris to wonder aloud [...]

La Sagesse Des Foules

Good news this week for French-speaking Midas Oracle readers: The French version of Surowiecki’s book has at last been released. Here’s wishing it the success it deserves! Early reviews are very positive: One reviewer writes poetically about “crowds so wise that they become revolutionary.” Cute, and telling: As the country celebrates the student uprisings of [...]

How political prediction markets save lives

Over the years there has been a lot of talk in this community about how prediction markets could be “socially valuable”. The discussion has often focused on the value of the information and/or predictions that the markets could generate, especially in a political context. Election-based decision markets a la Hanson are thus being held as [...]

Enterprise 3.0: new representations, new markets

Later this week, NewsFutures will have another great opportunity to introduce prediction markets into the consciousness of mighty American businessmen and women.
At the invitation of the organizers of the September 2007 DiamondExchange event, I will take part in a panel discussion on “technologies to raise your organization’s IQ” led by Chunka Mui, author of [...]

NewsFutures’ Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant technologies are both featured on UC Riverside’s eLab eXchange

UC Riverside’s Sloan Center for Internet Retailing has just launched their eLab eXchange, a website for gathering collective predictions about marketing in the digital world. The New York Times had a nice write up about it this morning. I mention this because the eLab eXchange features two NewsFutures knowledge aggregation mechanisms of which there are [...]

Demise of a Sarko Killer

She was billed as the only one who could steal this election from Nicolas Sarkozy. The media had dubbed her “the queen of the polls”, so towering was her popularity over her socialist rivals for the party’s nomination. She was strikingly beautiful (for a politician), feminine yet tough, motherly yet authoritative, reassuring yet unafraid to [...]

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