Author Archives: Emile Servan-Schreiber

About Emile Servan-Schreiber

CEO, NewsFutures - Maryland, U.S.A. & France, E.U.

The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count

Posted on November 3, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

I’m puzzled by the way Intrade projects the electoral vote count on its home page. Two methods are proposed: (a) add up the votes of all the states that are “leaning” (>50%) for a candidate, or (b) compute a price-weighted … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , | 10 Comments

NewsFutures Election Contest – Actually Win Something

Posted on October 24, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Yesterday, NewsFutures launched a new contest on the US election, focusing on swing states. A way for us to beta test some new technology and some new UIs (this blogger/trader seems to like it so far.) As a reward, we’re … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

NewsFutures Invents “Prediction Market Movies”.

Posted on September 23, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

A “prediction market movie” allows one to relive the excitement of past trading in a prediction market. For instance, the widget below brings back fond memories of the epic Clinton vs Obama primary battle. Isn’t it more fun than looking … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Charting System | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

NewsFutures Enterprise Prediction Market Workshop, NYC, 10/27

Posted on September 17, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

For aspiring practitioners and those intrigued by the applications of collective intelligence in the workplace, the typical prediction markets conference can be frustrating for lack of focus on practical knowledge and hands-on experience with the tools. That’s why NewsFutures is … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Consulting, Events & Meetings | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Is Intrade out on a limb?

Posted on September 12, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

As I write this, Intrade gives the advantage to McCain over Obama and has the Republican party even with the Democratic party to win the election, whereas all the other prediction markets, meaning IEM, Betfair, and the NewsFutures play-money kind … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 34 Comments

La Sagesse Des Foules

Posted on April 12, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Good news this week for French-speaking Midas Oracle readers: The French version of Surowiecki’s book has at last been released. Here’s wishing it the success it deserves! Early reviews are very positive: One reviewer writes poetically about “crowds so wise … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta), Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , | 5 Comments

How political prediction markets save lives

Posted on February 5, 2008 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Over the years there has been a lot of talk in this community about how prediction markets could be “socially valuable”. The discussion has often focused on the value of the information and/or predictions that the markets could generate, especially … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Enterprise 3.0: new representations, new markets

Posted on September 24, 2007 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Later this week, NewsFutures will have another great opportunity to introduce prediction markets into the consciousness of mighty American businessmen and women. At the invitation of the organizers of the September 2007 DiamondExchange event, I will take part in a … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Events & Meetings | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

NewsFutures’ Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant technologies are both featured on UC Riverside’s eLab eXchange

Posted on September 17, 2007 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

UC Riverside’s Sloan Center for Internet Retailing has just launched their eLab eXchange, a website for gathering collective predictions about marketing in the digital world. The New York Times had a nice write up about it this morning. I mention … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Analysis (Meta), Cases, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Mechanism Designs, Software | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Demise of a Sarko Killer

Posted on May 24, 2007 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

She was billed as the only one who could steal this election from Nicolas Sarkozy. The media had dubbed her “the queen of the polls”, so towering was her popularity over her socialist rivals for the party’s nomination. She was … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment