Author Archives: David Pennock

About David Pennock

Research Scientist at Yahoo! Research - New York, U.S.A.

What’s different about Predictalot?

A predictalot user asked: What’s the difference between predict a lot y Bolsa de predicciones? they have the same things or at least very similar. ?Are you the same? They have predictions, groups, events etc. the only difference is the … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Market Prices & Probabilities, Research | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot

Why should you try Predictalot? Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Sports fans: Check the crowd’s odds: Is St. Mary’s the next Cinderella? Economists: Play with a true combinatorial … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Research, Software, Sports | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

World Blogging Month (WoBloMo)

Our fearless conductor Chris Masse has mastered the art of blogging, including the key ingredient of consistent daily posts. He knows what Stephen King knows: quantity and quality can be friends. For a pseudo-blogger like me intimidated by those seven … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

New Yahoo! News election dashboard

Cross-posted on Oddhead Blog. The Yahoo! News Political Dashboard has re-launched for the general election stretch run of the 2008 US Presidential election. From the main map you can see the status of the election in every state according to … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Market Prices & Probabilities, Resources - References, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 16 Comments

Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick.

Cross posted from Oddhead Blog. We’ve just added a new feature to Yoopick especially for Frenchmen Chris and Emile and citizens of nineteen other countries to place their swagor* on how many medals their country will win. We’ve argued that … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago

Please join us at the Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, in Chicago on the afternoon of July 9, 2008. We plan academic talks, an industry panel, and open discussion. Participation is open to anyone, and we hope to be as … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Events & Meetings | Tagged , , , , , , , | 10 Comments

The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming

Over on Oddhead Blog, I give a lengthy pitch for linear programming as the “right” way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market. I argue that the simplest and most common approach — to treat a multi-outcome market as a bunch … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Mechanism Designs | Tagged , | 4 Comments

Search engine futures!

Cross posted from Oddhead Blog. I am happy to report that on my suggestion intrade has listed futures contracts for 2008 search engine market share. Here is how they work: A contract will expire according to the percentage share of … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 17 Comments

Yahoo! Election 2008 Political Dashboard

(Cross posted from Oddhead Blog.) I’m happy to report the launch of the Yahoo! Election ’08 Political Dashboard. Using the dashboard, you can navigate through a wealth of election-related data, including prediction market data from intrade.com, polling data from Real … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Resources - References | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Seeking nominations for an industry panel at the Second Workshop on Prediction Markets

PM affectionados: We’re seeking nominations for participants in an industry panel that will take place at the Second Workshop on Prediction Markets on June 12 in San Diego. We’d love to hear from both producers and consumers of prediction markets … Continue reading

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