I am usually very sympathetic to Inkling Markets and Adam Siegel. I think they are the most professional prediction market consultants. However, I am more impressed by the recent Xpree hiring than by the recent Inkling hiring. Leslie Fine is a market design specialist and a fine researcher, who will bring credibility and expertise to Xpree. Very good coup by mister Mat Fogarty. I am very impressed. Wow.

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• Inkling Markets grabs a VP away from Northern Trust.
• Red Herring’s list of the top 100 North-American high-tech startups includes Inkling Markets —but not NewsFutures, Consensus Point, or Xpree.
• STRAIGHT FROM THE DOUBLESPEAK DEPARTMENT: NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber, well known to chase tirelessly the Infidels who dare calling “prediction markets” their damn polling system, is eager to sell the confusion to his clients and whomever would listen.
• “Xpree, the leader in prediction market forecasting technology for corporations”
• Inkling Markets, one year later
• Inkling Markets’ GodFather Speaks Out.
• Prediction Market Management — Foresight Exchange vs. Inkling Markets & HubDub

Boston.com

At times, Justin Wolfers posts raw data on Freakonomics to tease the other economic researchers.

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• Justin Wolfers = Open Researcher
• Justin Wolfers on Rudy Giuliani = not convincing… yet
• Today Is JUSTIN WOLFERS Day.
• Justin Wolfers vs. Chris Hibbert
• STRAIGHT FROM THE TRUISM DEPARTMENT: Money buys happiness.
• Justin Wolfers and Bill Cassano: How many divisions??
• Justin Wolfers should have his own Wikipedia entry.

Time:

QUESTION: One of the biggest moments in the campaign is going to be your announcement of a vice president. What is that decision going to tell voters about you?

BARACK OBAMA: Hopefully, the same thing that my campaign has told the American people about me. That I think through big decisions. I get a lot of input from a lot of people, and that ultimately, I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press, but our focus on what’s best for the American people.

I think people will see that I’m not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths and who are independent. I’m not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.

“Not about ego”… is no good for Joe Biden.

“Complement”…. is no good for Kathleen Sebelius and Tim Kaine.

So, it might be Evan Bayh.

UPDATE: Or Jack Reed.

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• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.
• Pschhtt… The Joe Biden hot balloon is deflating as fast as Louis Armstrong’s cheecks. Is Nigel Eccles’s reputation as a prediction market analyst now in tatters?
• Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
• Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket —and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).
• VP conditional probabilities

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• Xpree vs. Inkling Markets
• The most significant thing in the Inkling Markets festival (past and future) is the Gartner imprimatur (”Cool Vendor in Emerging Technologies”). Tremendous impact in the business community, where CEOs are addicted to consultants. The Inkling Markets phone switchboard is red hot right now.
• Will Inkling Markets Abandon Ruby On Rails, One Day?
• Plenty of great news coming from Inkling Markets in the coming weeks
• Inkling Markets’ Advisory Board… which does not want to tell its name
• Inkling Markets is one of the “Hot Companies To Watch In 2008″, according to Forrester.
• Adam Siegel of Inkling Markets has computed that blogging is important to a small business.

-

The Real Clear Politics webpage that features InTrade’s probabilistic predictions.

Thanks to Koleman Strumpf for the RCP tip, some time ago.

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• Did you know that Real Clear Politics (a political news aggregator in bed with InTrade) is now owned by Forbes?
• Here’s how John McIntyre of the political blog Real Clear Politics defines InTrade-TradeSports.
• Once again, the US journalistic team of The Economist loves the political prediction markets.
• US ELECTORAL MAP: Prediction Markets for the 2008 Electoral College
• GOP to media and bloggers: BEWARE OF EXIT POLLS
• Prediction exchanges, please do use a liquid layout for your sites.
• Community Prediction Markets = X Groups

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• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. — Might be Evan Bayh.
• Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket —and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).
• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• Pschhtt… The Joe Biden hot balloon is deflating as fast as Louis Armstrong’s cheecks. Is Nigel Eccles’s reputation as a prediction market analyst now in tatters?
• Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
• Barack Obama will finish off Hillary Clinton by June 15.

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• You know what I thought when I first saw that picture (little Fogarty planted next to Master Of Credit Alan Greenspan)?… I thought, well, it’s about time that the prediction market industry does the “product endorsement by celebrity” marketing thing. BetFair premiered that with John McCririck.
• What prediction market software improvement did Alan Greenspan suggest to Xpree’s Mat Fogarty?
• The best researchers on prediction markets
• Excellent article about enterprise prediction markets and Inkling Markets —with a good word for Robin Hanson, who invented MSR.
• Zocalo, open-source software for enterprise prediction markets
• Innovation Mechanism = Voting Mechanism + Prediction Market Mechanism
• STRAIGHT FROM THE DOUBLESPEAK DEPARTMENT: NewsFutures CEO Emile Servan-Schreiber, well known to chase tirelessly the Infidels who dare calling “prediction markets” their damn polling system, is eager to sell the confusion to his clients and whomever would listen.

New York Times publishes the portraits of all the VP candidates.

I have just read the article on Kathleen Sebelius… and that has strongly reinforced my view that she is the best pick for Barack Obama.

I am less opinionated as for what should be the ideal Republican ticket. (Wait… I want Ron Paul as VP candidate. )

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• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. — Might be Evan Bayh.
• Inexperienced Illinois senator (and presumptive Democratic nominee) Barack Obama should pick Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius as vice president candidate to bring executive experience to the Democratic ticket —and to piss off Hillary Clinton (which will delight me).
• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.
• TURNING POINT: BARACK OBAMA EVENT DERIVATIVE NOW AHEAD
• Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market

Who will be Obama’s choice for VP?

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• ENDLESS VEEPSTAKES: Why you should never trade on VP prediction markets, and why their probabilistic predictions are as stochastic as Paris Hilton’s daily dress picks.
• Thoughts on the Democrats’ debate
• HedgeStreet’s Robert Dubil is now blogging…
• Prediction markets = A tool for quantifying the conventional wisdom
• NewsFutures prices = NewsFutures probabilities = NewsFutures visual representations
• Bob Barr markets
• Intrade: Obama and Clinton at near-parity

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Midas Oracle = 1,600 daily readers (600 visitors on the Web + 1,000 feed subscribers)

Midas Oracle .ORG = Site Map + Archives + Best + Charts + Exchanges + Software + Links + Midas Oracle Network + Connect With Us On LinkedIn + Prediction Markets Group At LinkedIn + Shared Items + Login + Register + Upgrade Your Status + Write A Post Or A Page + How To Publish

• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• Barack Obama + Kathleen Sebelius
• Barack Obama drops hints about who his VP candidate will be. — Might be Evan Bayh.
• Pschhtt… The Joe Biden hot balloon is deflating as fast as Louis Armstrong’s cheecks. Is Nigel Eccles’s reputation as a prediction market analyst now in tatters?
• Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market
• I told you that vice presidential search committees and VP prediction markets are complete bullshit, didn’t I?
• VP conditional probabilities