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- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
- NASA has finally understood the theorical basis of LENR (low-energy nuclear reactions). — [VIDEO]
Author Archives: Chris Hibbert
Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence
A few months ago I announced that my work on the Zocalo open source Prediction Market project is being supported by consulting contracts with two universities, but was unable to name the second one. I’m pleased to publicly announce that … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Cases, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets, Software
Tagged bet exchanges, betting exchanges, betting markets, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction exchanges, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction exchanges, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, internal prediction exchanges, internal prediction markets, MIT CCI, MIT Center for Collective Intelligence, MIT's Center for Collective Intelligence, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, private prediction exchanges, private prediction markets, Tom Malone, wisdom of crowds, Zocalo
5 Comments
CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon.
I want to quibble with one of Dave Pennock’s comments on the CFTC request. Pennock wrote “It’s not often that an industry in its infancy cries out for more government oversight.” It’s actually quite common. The term in the economics … Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets, Regulations
Tagged BetFair, CFTC, Chris Hibbert, DAVE PENNOCK, David Pennock, event derivative markets, event derivatives, event futures markets, innovation, laws, prediction markets, public prediction markets, public relations problems, Regulations, socially valuable prediction markets, TradeSports
20 Comments
Safe Harbor Letter too Timid
This is an edited version of a post on pancrit.org commenting on the public letter advocating safe harbor for small-scale academic prediction markets. I can see why they limited their goals as they did, and I agree that everything they … Continue reading
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting
After people have used Prediction Markets for a while and have gotten used to their ability to provide forecasts, they start thinking about different scenarios. Who would be the best Republican to face Clinton? How are the prospects for a market boom or crash effected by the winner of the election? How will poverty be affected by a proposed World Bank program? These kinds of questions can be posed in a number of ways using Prediction Markets. Markets can allow betting on conditional (if) or conjunctive (and) questions. Either one can be used to answer the what if questions, but they provide different choices to the bettors, and some make it easier for observers to decode the answers. Continue reading
Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Explainers, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Software
Tagged Clinton, cross-product, DAVE PENNOCK, Eric Zitzewitz, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Justin Wolfers, Osama bin Laden, Peter McCluskey, prediction markets, Prime Minister, Robin Hanson, Todd Proebsting, USD
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Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers
Dave Pennock gave a gentle introduction on his blog to the Market Scoring Rule invented by Robin Hanson. In the comments, Sid asked for an explanation of how to integrate the MSR with an order book. Dave asked me privately if I’d be willing to tackle that, and this post is the result. Continue reading