according to GISS. Assuming the Intrade “Top 5″ global warming contract expires according to the Land Ocean Index, May - Dec 2008 temperatures will need to average 0.65 Celsius over baseline. The record was set back in 2005, 0.62 Celsius over baseline.

Intrade needs to specify the expiry conditions more precisely.

Still, I’m remain short the contract:

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

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• Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
• A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets…
• The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).
• CAVEAT BETTOR, YOU NEED A GLOBAL MODEL TO BE ABLE TO PREDICT FUTURE TEMPERATURES.
• InTrade’s global warming prediction markets are more socially interesting than BetFair’s ones.
• Only 7 web publications took the BetFair bait on global warming.
• What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?

Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party’s nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.

Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.

-

Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

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• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade
• Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
• The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Barack Obama is the 44th US president.
• Prediction markets are forecasting tools of convenience that feed on advanced indicators.

The announcement is here.

I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later.

The Contract Rules need more precise specification. While Intrade did use my suggestion of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies data to value the contract, I think Intrade must specifically state that the “J-D” January-December annual mean temperature series is being used, and on either the Global Mean Monthly data set, or else the Global-Land Ocean Temperature Index data set.

I personally prefer the latter, as ocean temperatures play a huge role in ice melts as well as other weather phenomena (e.g. hurricane frequency and intensity, even this political advocacy group pretending to be scientific says so). In any case, the two series are generally correlated well, so I have no strong preference which one Intrade specifies.

I used the latter of course, in working with Adam Siegel and the folks at Inkling Markets to create the very first Global Warming prediction market.

Cross-posted from Caveat Bettor.

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• What does climate scientist James Annan think of InTrade’s global warming prediction markets?
• Caveat Bettor…
• Only 7 web publications took the BetFair bait on global warming.
• A climate scientist takes a close look at InTrade’s global warming prediction markets…
• The definitive proof that FOR-PROFIT prediction exchanges (like BetFair and InTrade) are the best organizers of socially valuable prediction markets (like those on global warming and climate change).
• BetFair’s Global Warming Prediction Markets — CFM’s Views
• The London School of Economics chose InTrade-TradeSports over BetFair-TradeFair for floating event derivatives on global warming.

Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on election eve, while Zogby indicated a tie in NJ and Romney in California.

Contest-by-contest breakdown at Caveat Bettor.

I was disappointed that Zogby only presented polling on 7 of the 20 contests on Super Tuesday.

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• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Latest Intrade v. Zogby contest is up.
• The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton.
• WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.

Up at Caveat Bettor.

Zogby poll numbers here. Intrade snapshots taken at 1pm. Here are the notable divergences between the pollster and the prediction market:

NJ Dem: Intrade calling for Clinton, while Zogby in a tie.

CA Rep: Intrade calling for McCain, while Zogby calling for Romney.

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• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade
• Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
• WHY THE PREDICTION MARKETS WILL LIKELY F**K UP SUPER TUESDAY 2008.
• The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Super Tuesday, The Morning After — Wednesday Morning US Presidendial Elections To Death

If Clinton or Edwards wins, Zogby will be declared the winner. If any other candidate wins, the contest will be called as a draw. The Intrade snapshot was taken at 2:20pm today.

Details posted at Caveat Bettor.

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• The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Latest Intrade v. Zogby contest is up.
• The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade
• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
• Political Strategy and Prediction Markets

and ties Intrade after seven state contests. Details here.

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• Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• InTrade is no psychic —but what if that bit of truth is systematically said BEFORE, as opposed to AFTER.
• Can InTrade predict the future of foreign governments?
• Legalized Internet Gaming in New York

If McCain wins SC, the GOP contest will be called for Intrade. If Thompson or Romney wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If any other GOP candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.

If Obama wins NV, the Dem context will be called for Intrade. If Edwards wins, that contest will be called for Zogby. If H.Clinton or another candidate wins, the contest will end in a draw.

Zogby does not have recent information posted about the GOP in NV nor the Dems in SC, so a meaningful contest with Intrade cannot be had. While it’s not a forfeiture by Zogby, at least it’s a tiebreaker for Intrade.

Election eve candidate probabilities posted at Caveat Bettor.

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• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade
• The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Latest Intrade v. Zogby contest is up.
• Intrade markets and Zogby polls agree in New Hampshire
• Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday

The Michigan GOP Showdown, at Caveat Bettor:

If McCain wins, then the contest will be called for Intrade. If either Romney, Huckabee, Paul, Giuliani or Thompson win, the contest will be called for Zogby. If any other candidate wins, a draw will be called.

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• The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade
• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
• The best headline of the day –post Michigan

My hypothesis is that they are better than polls. And in my Intrade v. Zogby contest, so far so good.

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• The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results
• Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
• VENERABLE LAW SCHOLAR CASS SUNSTEIN REBUTS PAUL KRUGMAN AND COMES OUT TO DEFEND THE PREDICTION MARKETS.
• Prediction Market Industry Association = useless, so far
• Polls Vs. Prediction Markets
• Polls over prediction markets?