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Global Warming Exchange update
up at Caveat Bettor. An excerpt:
For the first 8 months of the year, the index has averaged 0.52 Celsius over baseline, slightly warmer than 2008’s 0.44 Celsius, but still trending lower since the peak of 0.62 in 2005.
Temperatures are rising over the last century. Alarmists claim its our increased carbon emissions; skeptics like me [...]
My response on high frequency trading, price discovery, liquidity, and transaction costs is up.
Here, in response to this, which has Wall Street abuzz today.
An excerpt from “Bovine Scatology”:
Ten years ago, your mutual fund manager would have to use Goldman or a competitor’s block desk to move 100,000 shares of Proctor and Gamble. And they would have to trade an eighth wide, i.e. 12.5 cents per share. The financial [...]
Chris Masse appears in a fly-by analogy.
Here:
http://www.haloscan.com/comments/caveatbettor/3098722113787876052/
The 2009 Global Warming prediction contract is up.
The contract, listed at Inkling Markets, is based on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index, reported monthly.
Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
according to GISS. Assuming the Intrade “Top 5″ global warming contract expires according to the Land Ocean Index, May – Dec 2008 temperatures will need to average 0.65 Celsius over baseline. The record was set back in 2005, 0.62 Celsius over baseline.
Intrade needs to specify the expiry conditions more precisely.
Still, I’m remain short the contract:
Cross-posted [...]
Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
The announcement is here.
I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later.
The Contract Rules need more precise specification. While Intrade did use my suggestion of the Goddard Institute [...]
Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on election eve, while Zogby indicated a tie in NJ and Romney in California.
Standings
Wins
Losses
Ties
Pct
Contender
Avg Eve Prob
5
2
9
59.4%
Intrade
69.6%
2
5
9
40.6%
Zogby
39.2%
Contest-by-contest [...]
Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby
Up at Caveat Bettor.
Zogby poll numbers here. Intrade snapshots taken at 1pm. Here are the notable divergences between the pollster and the prediction market:
NJ Dem: Intrade calling for Clinton, while Zogby in a tie.
CA Rep: Intrade calling for McCain, while Zogby calling for Romney.
Standings
Wins
Losses
Ties
Pct
Contender
3
2
4
0.556
Intrade
2
3
4
0.444
Zogby
Schedule
Score
Date
State
Party
Intrade
Zogby
Winner
3-2-4
29-Jan
FL
Rep
McCain
2-way-tie
McCain
2-2-4
26-Jan
SC
Dem
Obama
Obama
Obama
2-2-3
19-Jan
SC
Rep
McCain
McCain
McCain
2-2-2
19-Jan
NV
Dem
Obama
Clinton
Clinton
2-1-2
15-Jan
MI
Rep
McCain
2-way tie
Romney
2-0-2
8-Jan
NH
Dem
Obama
Obama
Clinton
2-0-1
8-Jan
NH
Rep
McCain
McCain
McCain
2-0-0
3-Jan
IA
Dem
Obama
3-way tie
Obama
1-0-0
3-Jan
IA
Rep
Huckabee
2-way tie
Huckabee
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