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- Native apps are reigning on mobiles, but Jakob Nielsen strategically bets on web apps. — [LINK]
- Steven Krivit continues to trash Andrea Rossi and his LENR technology. — [LINK]
- Interview with Adam Lashinsky — [VIDEO]
- Why some people are more innovative — [VIDEO]
- Forbes editor deciphers Steve Jobs’s Apple. — [VIDEO]
- Jason Ruspini rebuts Eric Zitzewitz on the regulation of political prediction markets. — [COMMENT]
- Eric Zitzewitz petitions the CFTC in favor of real-money prediction markets about politics. — [TEXT]
- Global warming is a big scam. — [LINK]
- A Swarm of Nano Quadrotors — [VIDEO]
- The Tragedy of the Commons — [VIDEO]
- Guy Kawasaki on Steve Jobs — [VIDEO]
- Inside Apple — [VIDEO]
- Mitt Romney’s taxes — [LINKS]
- A critique of Apple’s multimedia iBooks. — [LINK]
- Does Apple lack “generosity”? — [LINKS]
- Apple Education Push — [LINKS]
- Water Crystals — [DOCUMENT]
- Apple’s e-book software will allow publishers to make textbooks more interactive. — [LINKS + VIDEO]
- Alain Soral is France’s most dangerous intellectual… (dangerous for the French plutocrats, that is). — [VIDEO]
- Computers thru time — [CHART]
Author Archives: Caveat Bettor
The 2010 Global Warming Exchange has been closed.
Here. 2010 was a warm year, despite record snow and ice in highly populated areas. Here is the message I provided on the expiry: The NASA GISS GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2010 averaged out to 0.6325 Celsius above baseline. … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities
Tagged betting markets, climate, event derivative markets, global climate, global cooling, global warming, Global Warming Exchange, play-money prediction markets, prediction markets, weather
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Global Warming Exchange update
up at Caveat Bettor. An excerpt: For the first 8 months of the year, the index has averaged 0.52 Celsius over baseline, slightly warmer than 2008′s 0.44 Celsius, but still trending lower since the peak of 0.62 in 2005. Temperatures … Continue reading
My response on high frequency trading, price discovery, liquidity, and transaction costs is up.
Here, in response to this, which has Wall Street abuzz today. An excerpt from “Bovine Scatology”: Ten years ago, your mutual fund manager would have to use Goldman or a competitor’s block desk to move 100,000 shares of Proctor and … Continue reading
Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Finance
Tagged Finance, high frequency trading, liquidity, price discovery, transaction costs
6 Comments
Chris Masse appears in a fly-by analogy.
Here: http://www.haloscan.com/comments/caveatbettor/3098722113787876052/
The 2009 Global Warming prediction contract is up.
The contract, listed at Inkling Markets, is based on the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index, reported monthly.
Posted in Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets
Tagged climate change, global warming, prediction markets
1 Comment
Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline
according to GISS. Assuming the Intrade “Top 5″ global warming contract expires according to the Land Ocean Index, May – Dec 2008 temperatures will need to average 0.65 Celsius over baseline. The record was set back in 2005, 0.62 Celsius … Continue reading
Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts!
The announcement is here. I asked for them at the end of 2006/beginning of 2007 (the post was on Jan 10 2007, but I think I requested them first). A conversation at Midas Oracle, a few months later. The Contract … Continue reading
Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday
Both the prediction market and the pollster called 5 of the 7 head-to-head contest winners, so it was mostly ties between them. But in the NJ Democratic primary and the California Republican primary, Intrade contracts pointed to the winner on … Continue reading