Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Author Archives: Barry Ritholtz

Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures

Every now and again, I read something that simply makes my head spin. This [] New York Times article on prediction markets was just such a head-spinning column. It reached such a bizarre conclusion that it begs for comment.
Longtime readers are familiar with my views on prediction markets. I believe they have some value, when [...]

Odds of GOP Retaining Congressional Control

A recent comment to yesterday’s Citibank Panic/Euphoria discussion led to this post being inserted in the weekend linkfest:
According to Tradesports, the odds of the Republican Party retaining control of each Congressional House in the 2006 Mid Term Election is mixed.
In the Senate, only one third of the 100 seats are up for re-election. Votes are [...]

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