Prediction Markets + Market Predictions = Collective Forecasting That Pays Off

Author Archives: Alex Kirtland

Predictocracy Book Review

I did a modest review of Michael Abramowicz’s new book: Predictocracy: Market Mechanisms for Public and Private Decision Making.
You can read it here.
In short, interesting, in an odd sort of way, yet worth the read.
~alex
UsableMarkets

If you care about this kind of media coverage: Predictify on Marketplace

It can be found here.
~alex (usablemarkets.com)

What is a usable market?

A usable market is: a market where you exert the least effort for the greatest understanding possible, that allows you to comfortably engage at the level (and in the role) you wish, results in your maximum possible satisfaction, and where your actions in the market feed back positively into the market.
You can jot down your [...]

More Caution on Prediction Markets …

… this time from American Public Radio’s Marketplace.
~alex

Since Chris must sleep at some time (I think)…

… I’ll alert you to a developing story. [Slate's Daniel Gross: Why were the political futures markets so wrong about Obama and Clinton?]
Thanks to a friend.
~alex

Prediction Markets as Content, Part 2

Cross posted from UsableMarkets
Back in April I started talking about how Prediction Markets will be part of many news organizations’ “citizen-generated” content strategy going forward.
To quote myself (which seems kind of a rude thing to do, doesn’t it …?):
It seems as if no self-respecting news organization can ignore the Web 2.0 movement these days. Many [...]

PMIA Search Needs an Explanation.

Fellow blog friend Alt Search Engine wants to understand more about the new PMIA prediction market search.
Help him out here. Improve on my meager comment.
~alex
www.usableMarkets.com

UsableMarkets Reports from the NYC Prediction Market Conference (Yes, a little, er, a lot, late)

I recently published some thoughts resulting from the NYC Prediction Market Conference.
There were three items:
1. Contract Content which discusses “whether having related content and links appear alongside a contract make any difference as to how well informed the traders are when trading that contract … and therefore, does it have any impact on the price [...]

O’Reilly Media Money:Tech Conference

If you haven’t seen this take a look: http://conferences.oreillynet.com/pub/w/64/about.html
The relevant bit:
Sample sessions and topics for Money:Tech include:

Prediction markets work better than that other market
Prediction markets are finally coming of age, becoming spooking-effective at predicting everything from movements in financial markets to American Idol winners. They are poised to go mainstream, and here’s how.

In a brief [...]

Shorting on Prediction Markets

What does it mean to “short” on prediction markets?
This is probably one of those questions that only geeks and PM aficionados are interested in … and fitting that description I took my own shot at answering the question.
My own view, fully expressed over at Usable Markets, is that no true shorting, as I understand the [...]

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