Author Archives: Alex Forshaw

About Alex Forshaw

Collegian - University of Notre Dame - Concentration: Economics, Chinese Interests: Politics, interaction between political and apolitical economies, futures trading, prediction markets industry, seeking out a job, etc. - Indiana, U.S.A.

Intrade: Obama and Clinton at near-parity

Posted on July 6, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Full disclosure: I trade real money in all markets mentioned. Both preceding and after the utterly uninformed pronouncements from the past week or so that Hillary was “the one to beat,” that she was “in a league with Tiger Woods … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , | 3 Comments

Ron Paul’s zealot(s) on Intrade

Posted on June 9, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

It doesn’t take a latte-sipping DC elitist to understand that Ron Paul has a 0% chance of winning the Republican 2008 presidential nomination. Ok, fine: .1%. I’ll even concede .2% for the sake of argument. One funny feature of the … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , | 2 Comments

Flipping off your base: a cautionary tale

Posted on May 22, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Any guesses as to when that immigration bill made the news? Anyone? McCain has blown nearly 40 percent of his contract’s value in one week. With the obvious exception of speculative attacks, I have never seen a (sustained) decline of … Continue reading →

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Intrade politics roundup, May 18

Posted on May 18, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Monsieur Masse asked me to offer another nomination-futures roundup. I was happy to oblige. First, the Republicans. Fred Thompson has not impressed at his two “policy” speeches thus far (the first in OC, the second at the “Council for National … Continue reading →

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Political futures, exam-week edition

Posted on May 9, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Since last week’s poli futs post was so popular, M. Masse and I agreed that a sequel was not just right, but necessary. First, the Democratic frontrunners… I have not been able to figure these two. Through good news (April … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

2008 candidates: the bottom line

Posted on April 29, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Here are some candlestick graphs of the major Republican and Democratic 2008 contenders over the past 50 days (when Fred Thompson’s contract began trading). The bottom graph for each measures the percentage fluctuations in trading volume relative to previous trading. … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , | 1 Comment

Ruminating on political futures activity

Posted on April 28, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

With regards especially to the Republican side of the field, the markets are having a difficult time pricing the two unannounced heavyweights of their respective parties’ nominations: namely, Fred Thompson and Al Gore. On the Republican side, there has been … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Thoughts on the Democrats’ debate

Posted on April 27, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

Dennis Kucinich is stupid; Mike Gravel is utterly insane. Both make Barack Obama’s pacifist tendencies look like the second coming of Genghis Khan. Edwards’ performance was mediocre. When he wasn’t disavowing his $400 haircut, he needed to have a question … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Data), Analysis (Market Calls), Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Leading political indicators

Posted on April 24, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

American politics does not suffer from a shortage of polls. Zogby. Gallup. Rasmussen. SurveyUSA. Mason-Dixon. Polimetrix… In an information-glutted world, what matters is not the supply of sources, but the ability to glean trustworthy information from the larger swath of … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Leading & Lagging Indicators, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Danger of “self-fulfilling prophecy” in political event markets

Posted on February 6, 2007 by Alex Forshaw

People near the eye of the storm in DC have a way of always getting drawn to one side or the other, with very few exceptions. Those biases also creep into the polling business, making the outcomes of American politics … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Meta) | Tagged , , , , , , | 8 Comments