Guest Posts

The Midas Oracle Guest Posts

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Betdaq’s financials by Guest Author

How confidential is your confidential data in the hands of online payment solutions? Is Moneybookers fully in tune with the law? by Caruso

Wimbledon Betting Markets by Niall O’Connor

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week by Ryan

eLab eXchange – Will Twitter Rule the World? by Lawrence Wright

The “efficient markets” hypothesis is dead. by Niall O’Connor

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts? by Michael Giberson

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week by Ryan

Prediction Markets for Valuing Private Companies by Daniel Horowitz

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week by Ryan

A History of Betfair by Niall O’Connor

American Idol: The final two by Ryan

Chris Masse appears in a fly-by analogy. by Caveat Bettor

The liability of Betfair as regarding its forum by Niall O’Connor

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week by Ryan

Betfair and the notion of a global exchange by Niall O’Connor

Journal of Predictions Markets: Special Issue on Corporate Applications by Koleman Strumpf

eLab eXchange – Which real estate search site will see the most traffic? by Lawrence Wright

Global Horse Race Betting Exchange by Niall O’Connor

Wrong Tomorrow Here today by Niall O’Connor

How the bandwagon wrecked the wisdom of market crowds by Niall O’Connor

Microgaming poker trouble: $5,300,000 owed to players of failed licensee, and a deafening silence from the oldest software provider in the business by Caruso

The Malta LGA and the Alderney AGCC at the London ICE: no answers and nobody available. by Caruso

Enterprise prediction markets: Usability innovation is the answer. by Mat Fogarty

World Blogging Month (WoBloMo) by David Pennock

UK’s Guardian lambasts Mr Crystal Balls Nate Silver. by Niall O’Connor

Betbull exits Betting Exchange Space. by Niall O’Connor

HubDub takes home the Gold at the Oscars. by Jenni Peterson

Dealing with public perception and general anti-market sentiment by Jason Ruspini

Mario Galea and the Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the continuing corruption of this puppet online gambling licensing body by Caruso

Prediction Market Journalism by William Hudson

Is this man the Cantor Exchange project leader? by Guest Author

She seems to be real. by Adam Siegel

It wasn’t about the predictions. by Jason Ruspini

Analysis of Barr and Nader 2008 Intrade contracts by Mike Linksvayer

The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Futarchy Lite 2008 by Mike Linksvayer

How much betting will we see? by Koleman Strumpf

Are the polls accurate? — Electoral college map prediction for the 2008 US presidential election by Chris F. Masse

How the Tampa Bay Rays went from $7.00 to $750.00 on yoonew.com. by Claudio Cabrera

InTrade offers an explanation of strange trading. by Jason Ruspini

The gamble of downplaying manipulation by Jason Ruspini

Positives for prediction markets by Jason Ruspini

Where is the post-election academic conference on prediction market performance? by Michael Giberson

Hubdub Election Map Released (Including Dynamic Widget) by Nigel Eccles

NewsFutures Invents “Prediction Market Movies”. by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Simulating joint dynamics of InTrade’s electoral prediction markets by Guest Author

NewsFutures Enterprise Prediction Market Workshop, NYC, 10/27 by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Is Intrade out on a limb? by Emile Servan-Schreiber

2008 US Elections Prediction: John McCain is now the favorite at InTrade, while all the other prediction exchanges still have Barack Obama ahead. Is InTrade quicker to incorporate the latest polls because of the bigger liquidity of its prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse

Intrade 2008.PRES.McCAIN > PRESIDENT.REP2008 by Mike Linksvayer

The Value of Tom Brady? by Koleman Strumpf

New Yahoo! News election dashboard by David Pennock

Zocalo in use at MIT’s Center for Collective Intelligence by Chris Hibbert

Quit mulling over the VP-choice prediction markets, today’s real story is in the election winner markets. by Michael Giberson

Gambling Commission and DCMS stance on the Alderney Gambling Control Commission, a regulator which condones its licensees’ unlawful behaviour by Caruso

It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue. by Guest Author

Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market by Koleman Strumpf

Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick. by David Pennock

Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard. by Jason Ruspini

The Alderney Gambling Control Commission: you follow the rules but you still don’t get paid. Why bother with regulation at all? by Caruso

Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets by Mike Linksvayer

HubDub question by Chris F. Masse

Free Speech in Event Market Claims by Tom W. Bell

The CFTC Deadline . . . Wavers by Tom W. Bell

My response to the CFTC on event contracts by Jason Ruspini

Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the non-regulating regulator by Caruso

Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go. by Tom W. Bell

How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Davis’s political career (to be used for ethical purposes only) by Guest Author

Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts by Mike Linksvayer

Bob Barr markets by Mike Linksvayer

The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets by Jay Graziani

VP conditional probabilities by Eric Zitzewitz

Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism. by Tom W. Bell

Who will write to the CFTC? by Guest Author

Why do BetFair Games (regulated in Malta, E.U.) have a timer on games? by Guest Author

Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) by Guest Author

What public interests are served by event contracts? by Michael Giberson

The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets by Jason Ruspini

CFTC regulation and election contracts by Jason Ruspini

Bob Barr candidacy fails market test. by Mike Linksvayer

Asymmetry in Obama nomination market by Jason Ruspini

IN-PLAY BETTING: BetFair is already compliant with the Gambling Commission’s first pointer. by Guest Author

Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)? by Chris F. Masse

Rumor Mill — Wednesday morning by Guest Author

Protecting Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell

Building Exits into CFTC Regulation by Tom W. Bell

Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline by Caveat Bettor

Is the promise of prediction markets in the United States best explored in limited, small stakes markets under a CFTC safe harbor declaration? by Michael Giberson

Conference on Prediction Markets by Guest Author

Prediction Markets: A new Special Interest Group on forecastingprinciples.com by Andreas Graefe

How BetFair did treat its customers on the day that the BetFair Starting Price system crashed down by Guest Author

How BetFair markets are settled in the situation where their integrity team are unhappy about some aspect of the betting on that event by Guest Author

The CFTC takes a necessary step toward sorting out its role with respect to prediction markets. by Michael Giberson

Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets by Koleman Strumpf

Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell

Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results by Caveat Bettor

eLab eXchange Web of Misery – Which Online Indicators of Distress Will Grow Most? by Donna Hoffman

Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago by David Pennock

Who is behind the CFTC’s request? by Guest Author

CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon. by Chris Hibbert

InTrade’s Software Glitch? – [See Jason Ruspini's comment, at the bottom of the post.] by Guest Author

Zocalo News by Chris Hibbert

Deep Throat on the journalists’ fatigue for reporting on prediction markets by Guest Author

Prediction Markets: Powerful enough to be dangerous? by Jason Ruspini

This VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception. by Guest Author

Who would you back, the market consensus or a book-writing pundit? by Michael Giberson

La Sagesse Des Foules by Emile Servan-Schreiber

A picture worth 10,979 words? by Guest Author

New Betfair bet matching system is a step backwards. by Niall O’Connor

Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts! by Caveat Bettor

Predictocracy Book Review by Alex Kirtland

Getting from Collective Intelligence to Collective Action by Tom W. Bell

2009 tax futures yielding 1.5% by Jason Ruspini

Quake Markets by Tom W. Bell

The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming by David Pennock

Intrade, with carry by Jason Ruspini

Talking tax futures on BNN, Canada’s business channel by Jason Ruspini

Tax Futures, “In Real Life” by Jason Ruspini

Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday by Caveat Bettor

If you care about this kind of media coverage: Predictify on Marketplace by Alex Kirtland

How political prediction markets save lives by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Super Tuesday = Free money, if you are smarter than the crowd by Michael Giberson

Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby by Caveat Bettor

Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo by Robin Hanson

Xpree = Innovations + Prediction Markets by Mat Fogarty

The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby by Caveat Bettor

Search engine futures! by David Pennock

Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton. by Caveat Bettor

The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby by Caveat Bettor

More Caution on Prediction Markets … by Alex Kirtland

Rushkoff on Crowd Sourcing by Robin Hanson

Latest Intrade v. Zogby contest is up. by Caveat Bettor

Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets by Michael Giberson

Defining Probability in Prediction Markets by Panos Ipeirotis

GIGO and prophets, tears and markets by George Tziralis

Five Reasons the Prediction Market Critics Are Wrong. by Steve Roman

New Hampshire is just another “Pentagon moment” for political prediction markets by Michael Giberson

Who said prediction markets were perfect? by Caveat Bettor

Since Chris must sleep at some time (I think)… by Alex Kirtland

CNN Political Market officially launches. by Adam Siegel

How will the prediction markets respond? by Niall O’Connor

Intrade markets and Zogby polls agree in New Hampshire by Caveat Bettor

Prediction Markets as Content, Part 2 by Alex Kirtland

The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade by Caveat Bettor

Cav likes bots more than Chris does. by Caveat Bettor

The future of futurism: crowds or entrepreneurs? by Michael Giberson

The market moved but is it news? by Nigel Eccles

Yahoo! Election 2008 Political Dashboard by David Pennock

Text Mining and Prediction Markets by Guest Author

Fallon “Betfair Trial” Collapses by Niall O’Connor

Prediction markets do react to stale news. by Niall O’Connor

Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets by David Jack

50 askmarkets invites for Midas Oracle readers by George Tziralis

Risk premia creeping higher by James Hamilton

Inkling’s Dead Radiohead Market by Michael Giberson

Betfair may be forced to raise its commission charges. by Niall O’Connor

Slides of presentations from Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City by Koleman Strumpf

Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs by Michael Giberson

Could a political campaign use prediction markets? by Adam Siegel

The war against online gambling by Niall O’Connor

PMIA Search Needs an Explanation. by Alex Kirtland

The eLab eXchange Has Some Fun With Online Shopping This Holiday Season. by Donna Hoffman

Polls over prediction markets? by Nigel Eccles

Small comforts of prediction markets by Mike Linksvayer

ads, auctions and markets: a proposal by George Tziralis

Massachusetts governor’s proposal to send the TradeSports-InTrade traders to jail is foolish. by Steve Roman

Austan Goolsbee on Iraq and the Collective Wisdom of Bond Markets by Michael Giberson

How to sell art short by Jason Ruspini

If Musharraf goes, should we celebrate? by Eric Zitzewitz

How long will the writers’ strike last? And can prediction markets help answer this question? by Michael Giberson

Summary of Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City by Koleman Strumpf

BetFair will xxxxxx xxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx, soon. by Guest Author

TimeForm-i = BetFair’s innovative TimeForm = UK horse racing publication by Guest Author

The Global Betting Exchange by Guest Author

The Racing Post and TimeForm/BetFair are two competitors in the UK horseracing data publication business. by Guest Author

Overview of Henry Manne’s, “Insider Trading: Hayek, Virtual Markets, and the Dog that Did Not Bark” by Michael Giberson

GDP up, recession probability down by James Hamilton

Presentation of Private Prediction Markets’ Legality Under U.S. Law by Tom W. Bell

BetFair will soon announce plans to publish their own starting prices. by Guest Author

PurePlay’s Patented Legal Hack by Tom W. Bell

Prediction markets or insider trading could reveal information hidden from upper management by Michael Giberson

Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November) by Koleman Strumpf

Is sports betting legal if you bundle it with furniture? by Eric Zitzewitz

YooNew, fears and hopes by Jason Ruspini

Are Prediction Markets Constitutional? by Caveat Bettor

Academics to discuss prediction market experience by Michael Giberson

Beware before citing the probabilistic predictions given by the prediction markets by Steve Roman

Demand forecasting systems: Spending a lot on software doesn’t guarantee success. by Michael Giberson

Great quote for the prediction markets faithful by Caveat Bettor

Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery by Michael Giberson

Inferring market expectations from changes in fed funds futures prices by James Hamilton

UsableMarkets Reports from the NYC Prediction Market Conference (Yes, a little, er, a lot, late) by Alex Kirtland

Betfair must display its revolutionary credentials. by Niall O’Connor

New Prediction Markets Software Site – Qmarkets by Noam Danon

Political Strategy and Prediction Markets by Steve Roman

Betcha’s Continuing Legal Struggles, Updated by Michael Giberson

Prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations by Michael Giberson

Bayesian World Series outlook by Michael Giberson

Encouraging participation in long-term information markets by Jason Ruspini

Profits to be down at Betfair by Niall O’Connor

Germany favored to win FIFA Women’s World Cup by Michael Giberson

Inkling forums are back. by Michael Giberson

The Consumer Behavior of Prediction Markets by Donna Hoffman

Global Warming prediction exchange is set up. by Caveat Bettor

Inkling Free Pilot Program by Adam Siegel

Enterprise 3.0: new representations, new markets by Emile Servan-Schreiber

US Online Gambling: Don’t bet on it. by Niall O’Connor

Author urges friends and fans to show support by buying shares at Media Predict. by Michael Giberson

Enthusiasm and Arbitrage Opportunities at Media Predict by Michael Giberson

Pennock & Sami on “Computational aspects of prediction markets” by Chris Hibbert

NewsFutures’ Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant technologies are both featured on UC Riverside’s eLab eXchange by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007) by Koleman Strumpf

Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson by Michael Giberson

Extracting Market Predictions from Financial Data: Is the ‘Surge’ Working? by Michael Giberson

Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets by Chris Hibbert

The ultimate proof that InTrade and TradeSports are still the same entity. by Guest Author

Creating a Prediction Market on Inkling for the Women’s World Cup was Easy! by Michael Giberson

Barone on America’s Three Regimes, by Morton Keller by Caveat Bettor

Goff comments on Vegas vs. Sports Pundits at The Sports Economist by Michael Giberson

David Eisenthal’s Final Look at His Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market by Michael Giberson

Betfair partner goes to the wall. by Niall O’Connor

The simExchange on July video game sales by Brian Shiau

Some global warming updates from GISS by Caveat Bettor

O’Reilly Media Money:Tech Conference by Alex Kirtland

Shorting on Prediction Markets by Alex Kirtland

How to profit from tournament betting on Betfair by Pete Nordsted

Can prediction markets be gamed? by Caveat Bettor

Betfair results eagerly awaited by Niall O’Connor

Widespread Corruption in Sports Gambling: Fact or Fiction? by Rick Borghesi

Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports by Rick Borghesi

Inkling Forums disappear. by Michael Giberson

The NFL’s Home Underdog Bias: Timing and Weather by Rick Borghesi

Betcha’s Continuing Legal Struggles by Michael Giberson

U.S. Prediction Markets May Want to Review Court Decision in NYMEX v. Intercontinental Exchange. by Michael Giberson

Person-to-person freeform betting by Nigel Eccles

Interpreting fed funds futures by James Hamilton

The truth of the source code by George Tziralis

Adam Siegel interviews first “Million Inkle Trader”. by Michael Giberson

The Most Active Inkling Market Ever? by Michael Giberson

IPO Price Discovery by Brian Shiau

How to win on the Betfair markets by Pete Nordsted

Point Shaving in the NBA: An Economic Analysis of the NBA’s Point Spread Betting Market by Jonathan Gibbs

NPD June sales data reviewed by Brian Shiau

Prediction markets and Pinker’s dangerous ideas by Caveat Bettor

Deep Throat on the George Mason University exodus to Chapman University. by Guest Author

All GMU’s ICES faculty except Houser and McCabe are leaving to join Chapman University. by Guest Author

New Kid on the Blog: Nosco. by Jesper Muller-Krogstrup

Deep Throat on HedgeStreet — Again by Guest Author

More Business Cases? by Guest Author

Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World by Koleman Strumpf

Justice, Washington State Gambling Commission Style by Nick Jenkins

Deep Throat on the expiry of the Harry Potter event derivative by Guest Author

Terrorism Futures = Repugnant Market? by Michael Giberson

The intelligent solution can sometimes be more damaging than the problem. by Caveat Bettor

New Fee Structure At TradeSports Causes Confusion. by Jay Graziani

Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short. by Guest Author

Fox Business News Channel Beginning Oct. 15th by Caveat Bettor

Betcha.com: On Steamroller Justice and Reports of our Demise by Nick Jenkins

What should be Done about Manipulation of Prediction Markets? by Michael Giberson

Overview of Robin Hanson’s Paper, “Insider Trading and Prediction Markets” by Michael Giberson

Like I’ve been saying about global warming contracts by Caveat Bettor

Shifting from stocks to futures by Brian Shiau

Volumes on InTrade are way up from 2004. by Eric Zitzewitz

Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. by Eric Zitzewitz

Supporting Your Candidate on Inkling? by Michael Giberson

If They Can’t Use It, Train Them! by Alex Kirtland

Deep-Pocketed Manipulators are a Prediction Market’s Friend. by Michael Giberson

Intrade: Obama and Clinton at near-parity by Alex Forshaw

Organizations That Do Not Need People Anymore — HedgeStreet Edition by Guest Author

Tradesports announces fee refunds. by Caveat Bettor

Deep Throat’s third thoughts on TradeSports Cost of Service by Guest Author

Structure and Behavior of Commodities Markets by Rod Carvalho

The Second Workshop on Prediction Markets by Yiling Chen

Any trader who is riding a winning position for the past few months has to hold it to expiry now or else pay 4% to take profit on his OLD position, which was clearly not written into the contract when he PUT THE POSITION ON. No exchange governed by U.S. law could ever get away with this without being sued into oblivion. by Guest Author

Deep Throat is asking a clarification from TradeSports on its cost of service. by Guest Author

How the Fed accelerated the inflation it is now confronting by Caveat Bettor

TradeSports Cost of Service Charts by Todd Griepenburg

Wisdom of outliers helps crowds, or Average > Median by Caveat Bettor

Paper on Corporate Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell

Macro reflections on private equity hypocrisy, and recent dollar history by Caveat Bettor

Rank order rankles me more than Jed. by Caveat Bettor

Deep Throat on the Red Monitor Prognosemarkt by Guest Author

Tradesports announces new fee structure. by Caveat Bettor

World context for US publicly held debt by Caveat Bettor

Betcha.com’s Hack of Anti-Internet Gaming Laws by Tom W. Bell

NPD releases May sales data, Crowd vs Expert compared by Brian Shiau

Deep Throat on the latest InTrade-TradeSports so-called incident. by Guest Author

Libertarian reflections on the Sopranos and prediction markets by Caveat Bettor

After Predicting an Event Outcome, Does Anticipated Regret Take All of the Fun Out of Watching the Event? by Michael Giberson

European Foresight Project Launches Prediction Market. by Andreas Graefe

Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It. by Michael Giberson

Ron Paul’s zealot(s) on Intrade by Alex Forshaw

Marketplace Radio says: Don’t bet on Internet gambling ban’s reversal. by Michael Giberson

An Employee Stock Option Prediction Market by Eric Zitzewitz

Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) by Koleman Strumpf

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux. by Justin Wolfers

Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? by Koleman Strumpf

Manipulation can affect prices. by Eric Zitzewitz

Demise of a Sarko Killer by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Policy Event Derivatives by Jason Ruspini

Media Predict’s Brent Stinski interviewed by Sandra Ruttan by Guest Author

Seeking nominations for an industry panel at the Second Workshop on Prediction Markets by David Pennock

Flipping off your base: a cautionary tale by Alex Forshaw

The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today. by George Tziralis

The law of one price by Niall O’Connor

MEDIA PREDICT, INKLING AND PATENTS by Guest Author

Meet Chris. F. Masse. by Guest Author

Intrade politics roundup, May 18 by Alex Forshaw

NPD releases April sales data, prediction market and analyst compared by Brian Shiau

Rite-Solutions’ Innovation Engine is based on Lotus Notes. by Guest Author

The human time constant by Caveat Bettor

Accounting sales of digitally downloaded games by Brian Shiau

Squawk on Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell

Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts by Menzie Chinn

There are three US-based, HedgeStreet-like prediction exchanges in the tube. by Guest Author

A HedgeStreet-like prediction exchange is planned in an African country. by Guest Author

Glen Boyle has received funding to start up a political prediction exchange in New Zealand. by Guest Author

Prediction Power of Options Markets by Peter Seed

Safe Harbor Letter too Timid by Chris Hibbert

The limitations of logic (and the need for passion) by Caveat Bettor

Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities by Michael Giberson

HedgeStreet showing new preview site… by Mark Rose

Critical Mass Matters. by Mark Rose

Political futures, exam-week edition by Alex Forshaw

Statement on Prediction Markets by Guest Author

US resorts to sleight of hand in WTO case. by Niall O’Connor

No prediction market bloggers on Blogshares by David Pennock

Can Prediction Markets Help Eliminate Poverty? by Michael Strong

A lesson in stock trading mechanics by Brian Shiau

Tony Soprano, poster child for fast burn gamblers by Caveat Bettor

2008 candidates: the bottom line by Alex Forshaw

Ruminating on political futures activity by Alex Forshaw

The Civil War Gold Hoax by Jason Ruspini

Recession probability index rises to 16.9% by James Hamilton

Thoughts on the Democrats’ debate by Alex Forshaw

Hybrid Prediction Markets by George Tziralis

FIRMWARE AND PREDICTION MARKETS: INKLING IS RIGHT. by Guest Author

Yahoo Quietly Launches Real Money Poker Site. by Daniel Horowitz

Leading political indicators by Alex Forshaw

Robin Hanson as Prospective Economics Nobel Laureate by Michael Strong

There are three financial prediction exchanges in the tube. by Guest Author

Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet. by David Stalcup

Next lesson: so the “futures” aren’t really futures by Brian Shiau

So what exactly are these “futures?” by Brian Shiau

Hurricane contracts? Yes! But where are the global warming contracts? by Caveat Bettor

How prediction exchanges can best encourage participation by Guest Author

Are punters sophisticated? by Niall O’Connor

Intro to Prediction Markets Presentation by Alex Kirtland

Tax futures and the libertarian paradox by Jason Ruspini

Deep Throat on the CFTC and the prediction markets by Guest Author

Deep Throat on Longitude, the software used by CME Economic Derivatives by Guest Author

Putting crowd wisdom to work by Guest Author

The Plan To Take the Online Gaming Market – US Gaming Firms Tale of Shame by Steve Roman

Market’s Bubble Bursts: Predictions Tie for Last Among 30 Experts by Keith Jacks Gamble

The Economist is taking suggestions. by Mike Linksvayer

Soliciting Research Papers for the 2nd Workshop on Prediction Markets by David Pennock

The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back by Jason Ruspini

The Economic Derivatives Market by Justin Wolfers

Conditional and Combinatorial Betting by Chris Hibbert

What does the TradeSports/InTrade “split” really amount to? by Guest Author

InTrade-TradeSports faces a grim future. by Guest Author

What exactly does HSX sell to the movie studios? by Guest Author

HedgeStreet had a major layoff last week. by Guest Author

Third E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports by Todd Griepenburg

Second E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports by Todd Griepenburg

Designing Markets for Monthly Sales by Joey Crampton

XM-Sirius merger by Eric Zitzewitz

A Big Trader’s Open Letter to TradeSports-InTrade by Todd Griepenburg

Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures by Barry Ritholtz

Presentation on Legality of Prediction Markets Under U.S. Law by Tom W. Bell

Seeking Presenters for a “Prediction Markets in Philanthropy” Conference by Michael Strong

Top 5 Plays of the Super Bowl? Market says No. by Keith Jacks Gamble

Inkling Markets: Try Before You Buy. — REDUX by Chris F. Masse

Super Bowl Analysis Highlights by Keith Jacks Gamble

Non-obstacles to CFTC-regulated political event derivatives by Jason Ruspini

Danger of “self-fulfilling prophecy” in political event markets by Alex Forshaw

Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl by Caveat Bettor

The Recessions of 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2006 by Caveat Bettor

An invitation to join the simExchange beta by Brian Shiau

The Homebuilder Sell Sirens Call Again by Jason Ruspini

What are futures? by Guest Author

How to trade in futures market? by Guest Author

Aloha, Poker Players Alliance by Jason Ruspini

How about balanced budget contracts? by Caveat Bettor

Email Interview: Ken Kittlitz by Ken Kittlitz

Long-term housing derivatives? by Mike Linksvayer

TradeSports reincorporates in two, just in time for NETeller’s immolation. by Alex Forshaw

Does wisdom require markets? by David Pennock

Discussion about applicability of prediction markets for long-term prediction! by Christian Wiehe

Why Prohibitions on Internet Gambling Won’t Work. by Koleman Strumpf

The LindeX Currency Exchange by Jason Ruspini

Conditional Superbowl victory probabilities by Caveat Bettor

Don’t take those economic forecasts so seriously by Caveat Bettor

InTrade will charge a fee for API access and usage. by Guest Author

Global warming contract suggestion by Caveat Bettor

Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers by Chris Hibbert

E-mail from an Edwards trader. [edited] by Alex Forshaw

Humble Dr. Bob crushes Vegas handicappers. by Caveat Bettor

Yootle interest rates and inflation by Jason Ruspini

Latest conditional probabilities for NFL playoff teams by Caveat Bettor

Insight or Connection – How Kynikos Associates Profited from the Gaming Bill by Steve Roman

Combining forecasts by James Hamilton

For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes by Caveat Bettor

Thoughts on Weather Bill by Eric Zitzewitz

What will the Fed do next? by James Hamilton

Levitt’s risky prize-seeking behavior by Mike Linksvayer

Legalized Internet Gaming in New York by Steve Roman

Sports vs. Non-Sports Divestiture by Caveat Bettor

Iran – Is Something Really Up? by Jonathan Gewirtz

HP and corporate prediction markets mechanisms by Jason Ruspini

Deep Throat on Deep Throat on Deep Throat on BetBrokers, “the World’s first independent betting brokerage” by Guest Author

Deep Throat on Deep Throat on BetBrokers, “the World’s first independent betting brokerage” by Guest Author

Deep Throat’s Questions on Prediction Market Software Vendors – 2 by Guest Author

Deep Throat’s Questions on Prediction Market Software Vendors by Guest Author

Prediction Markets “Excluded” from CFTC Jurisdiction? by Tom W. Bell

“Fire: Other” Futures by Jason Ruspini

NYMEX to launch Property Damage Risk Futures by Jason Ruspini

Prediction Markets for the CFO by Eric Zitzewitz

Deep Throat on the NewsFutures’s Dutch debacle by Guest Author

Libertarian baiting by Mike Linksvayer

Perry Metzger on Peter McCluskey’s essay – Should Prediction Markets be Charities? by Guest Author

Tales from the Chart Side by Alex Kirtland

confab.yahoo on prediction markets: Update by David Pennock

2006 and the Econbrowser crystal ball by James Hamilton

Irankling Study Group by Mike Linksvayer

Futility of real-money/play-money market linkage by Alex Forshaw

Swamping the 2008 nominations market with outside capital by Alex Forshaw

Flora of North America (CFTC regulation again) by Jason Ruspini

Credit Event Futures and other fauna by Jason Ruspini

Forget the polls and computers, let markets pick the top 2. by Eric Zitzewitz

REPLY–Bo Cowgill (”Color me perplexed…”) by Alex Forshaw

How to Define EU Failure for Betting Purposes? by Jonathan Gewirtz

Recession Contract Proposal by Caveat Bettor

The HRC attack, part 2 by Alex Forshaw

TechCentralStation grasps for one too many “wisdom of crowds” straws. by Alex Forshaw

confab.yahoo on prediction markets: Sunnyvale, Dec 13 5:30p by David Pennock

Economic Derivatives Auction Trader Motivations by Jason Ruspini

Economies of scale in event markets? by Alex Forshaw

Discounting and prediction market prices by Jason Ruspini

Speaking of Definitions …. by Alex Kirtland

Gartman’s Rules of Trading by Steve Roman

Prediction Markets Definitions by Robin Hanson

Summary of the Tradesports DEMS.HOUSE.OVER29.5 issue, and the TS “credibility gap” by Alex Forshaw

Paul Tetlock’s two clarifications about the Tetlock-Hahn economic purpose test by Guest Author

No change: Mispricing is greater in illiquid markets. by Hubertus Hofkirchner

Political Factor Analysis by Jason Ruspini

The five minutes on my 15 minutes of WSJ fame. by Alex Forshaw

Deep Throat on the Hollywood Stock Exchange by Guest Author

Deep Throat on TradeSports-InTrade’s spin doctoring machine by Guest Author

Deep Throat on BetBrokers, “the World’s first independent betting brokerage” by Guest Author

Deep Throat on the upcoming CME’s Credit Event Futures by Guest Author

Accuracy of futures prices as predictors of the fed funds rate by James Hamilton

An Extended Literature Review on Prediction Markets by George Tziralis

Chinese Markets by Guest Author

Benefits and non-benefits of sports betting markets by Andrew Gelman

Best Trading Interface? Here’s One Possibility. by Robert McLister

Is the hedging economic purpose test ambiguous? by Jason Ruspini

Prediction Markets Search Engine by George Tziralis

An Email Interview: Alex Kirtland by Alex Kirtland

One way or the other by James Hamilton

Who are the market leaders in enterprise prediction market solutions??? – Deep Throat’s answer: by Guest Author

TradeSports Castro Contract and CUBA by Steve Roman

Did the Korean Bomb help the Republicans? by Sam Savage

Short Odds for Ignorance by Paul Tetlock

Odds of GOP Retaining Congressional Control by Barry Ritholtz

Safe Harbor for Prediction Markets in SAFE Port Act by Tom W. Bell

Tom W. Bell’s (skill-based) scientific prediction exchange by Jason Ruspini

Gambling and a New Approach to Regulating Information Markets by Paul Tetlock

How important will the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act be? Markets think pretty important. by Justin Wolfers

Map of TradeSports prices for US Senate election by David Pennock

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