Chris F. Masse
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The Midas Oracle Guest Posts
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Gambling Commission and DCMS stance on the Alderney Gambling Control Commission, a regulator which condones its licensees’ unlawful behaviour by Caruso
It seems like someone at CNBC decided at some point that they would NEVER address the legality issue. by Deep Throat
Arbitrage in the InTrade Dem VP Market by Koleman Strumpf
Predict Olympic medal counts on YooPick. by David Pennock
Regulated U.S. election markets might not be so hard. by Jason Ruspini
The Alderney Gambling Control Commission: you follow the rules but you still don’t get paid. Why bother with regulation at all? by Caruso
Arbitrage between play-money and real-money markets by Jed Christiansen
Independent Institute’s weak blog post on prediction markets by Mike Linksvayer
HubDub question by Chris F. Masse
Free Speech in Event Market Claims by Tom W. Bell
The CFTC Deadline . . . Wavers by Tom W. Bell
My response to the CFTC on event contracts by Jason Ruspini
Malta Lotteries And Gaming Authority: the non-regulating regulator by Caruso
Let’s Tell the CFTC Where to Go. by Tom W. Bell
How to make a MILLION POUNDS on the rotting corpse of David Davis’s political career (to be used for ethical purposes only) by Paddy Hedges
Voodoo analysis of prediction market contracts by Mike Linksvayer
Bob Barr markets by Mike Linksvayer
The Case for Decrimininalization of Prediction Markets by Jay Graziani
VP conditional probabilities by Eric Zitzewitz
A draft response to the CFTC by Jed Christiansen
Let Prediction Markets Fight Terrorism. by Tom W. Bell
Who will write to the CFTC? by Deep Throat
Why do BetFair Games (regulated in Malta, E.U.) have a timer on games? by Deep Throat
Deep Throat on the idle Prediction Market Industry Association (PMIA) by Deep Throat
What public interests are served by event contracts? by Michael Giberson
Reality Markets and InTrade announce collaboration. by Brad Stewart
The CFTC safe-harbor option for event markets by Jason Ruspini
CFTC regulation and election contracts by Jason Ruspini
Bob Barr candidacy fails market test. by Mike Linksvayer
Asymmetry in Obama nomination market by Jason Ruspini
IN-PLAY BETTING: BetFair is already compliant with the Gambling Commission’s first pointer. by Deep Throat
Did Bin Laden speculate on the US airline stock derivatives (shorting them) between September 6, 2001 (date when he learned the timing of the attacks), and September 11, 2001 (date of the 4 attacks)? by Chris F. Masse
Rumor Mill — Wednesday morning by Deep Throat
Protecting Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
Building Exits into CFTC Regulation by Tom W. Bell
Land-Ocean year-to-date temperatures 0.35 Celsius over baseline by Caveat Bettor
Is the promise of prediction markets in the United States best explored in limited, small stakes markets under a CFTC safe harbor declaration? by Michael Giberson
Conference on Prediction Markets by Deep Throat
Prediction Markets: A new Special Interest Group on forecastingprinciples.com by Andreas Graefe
How BetFair did treat its customers on the day that the BetFair Starting Price system crashed down by Deep Throat
How BetFair markets are settled in the situation where their integrity team are unhappy about some aspect of the betting on that event by Deep Throat
The CFTC takes a necessary step toward sorting out its role with respect to prediction markets. by Michael Giberson
Prediction Markets in the Classroom: Inkling Markets by Koleman Strumpf
Insider Trading and Private Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
Final InTrade v. Zogby Showdown Results by Caveat Bettor
eLab eXchange Web of Misery - Which Online Indicators of Distress Will Grow Most? by Donna Hoffman
Third Workshop on Prediction Markets, July 9 in Chicago by David Pennock
Who is behind the CFTC’s request? by Deep Throat
CFTC Oversight May Not be a Boon. by Chris Hibbert
InTrade’s Software Glitch? - [See Jason Ruspini's comment, at the bottom of the post.] by Deep Throat
Zocalo News by Chris Hibbert
Deep Throat on the journalists’ fatigue for reporting on prediction markets by Deep Throat
Prediction Markets: Powerful enough to be dangerous? by Jason Ruspini
This VC firm might have been connected with the Irish prediction exchange, at inception. by Deep Throat
Who would you back, the market consensus or a book-writing pundit? by Michael Giberson
McKinsey writes about prediction markets. by Jed Christiansen
La Sagesse Des Foules by Emile Servan-Schreiber
A picture worth 10,979 words? by Bo Cowgill
New Betfair bet matching system is a step backwards. by Niall O’Connor
Intrade lists Global Warming Contracts! by Caveat Bettor
Predictocracy Book Review by Alex Kirtland
Getting from Collective Intelligence to Collective Action by Tom W. Bell
2009 tax futures yielding 1.5% by Jason Ruspini
Quake Markets by Tom W. Bell
The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming by David Pennock
Intrade, with carry by Jason Ruspini
Talking tax futures on BNN, Canada’s business channel by Jason Ruspini
Tax Futures, “In Real Life” by Jason Ruspini
Intrade beats Zogby on Super Tuesday by Caveat Bettor
If you care about this kind of media coverage: Predictify on Marketplace by Alex Kirtland
How political prediction markets save lives by Emile Servan-Schreiber
Super Tuesday = Free money, if you are smarter than the crowd by Michael Giberson
Super Tuesday Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby by Caveat Bettor
Merger Markets on Microsoft-Yahoo by Robin Hanson
Xpree = Innovations + Prediction Markets by Mat Fogarty
The Democrat SC Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby by Caveat Bettor
Search engine futures! by David Pennock
Zogby beats Intrade in predicting Nevada caucus winner Clinton. by Caveat Bettor
The GOP SC and Dem NV Showdown: Intrade v. Zogby by Caveat Bettor
More Caution on Prediction Markets … by Alex Kirtland
Rushkoff on Crowd Sourcing by Robin Hanson
Latest Intrade v. Zogby contest is up. by Caveat Bettor
Better Pricing for Tournament Prediction Markets by Michael Giberson
Defining Probability in Prediction Markets by Panos Ipeirotis
GIGO and prophets, tears and markets by George Tziralis
Five Reasons the Prediction Market Critics Are Wrong. by Steve Roman
New Hampshire is just another “Pentagon moment” for political prediction markets by Michael Giberson
Who said prediction markets were perfect? by Caveat Bettor
Since Chris must sleep at some time (I think)… by Alex Kirtland
CNN Political Market officially launches. by Adam Siegel
How will the prediction markets respond? by Niall O’Connor
Intrade markets and Zogby polls agree in New Hampshire by Caveat Bettor
Prediction Markets as Content, Part 2 by Alex Kirtland
The Iowa Showdown: Zogby v. Intrade by Caveat Bettor
Cav likes bots more than Chris does. by Caveat Bettor
The future of futurism: crowds or entrepreneurs? by Michael Giberson
3 ways for you to be a node in the Midas Oracle Network by The Network
The market moved but is it news? by Nigel Eccles
Yahoo! Election 2008 Political Dashboard by David Pennock
Text Mining and Prediction Markets by Bo Cowgill
Fallon “Betfair Trial” Collapses by Niall O’Connor
Prediction markets do react to stale news. by Niall O’Connor
Why does Tradefair care about Prediction Markets by David Jack
50 askmarkets invites for Midas Oracle readers by George Tziralis
Risk premia creeping higher by James Hamilton
Inkling’s Dead Radiohead Market by Michael Giberson
Betfair may be forced to raise its commission charges. by Niall O’Connor
Slides of presentations from Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City by Koleman Strumpf
Separating cheap talk from truly held beliefs by Michael Giberson
Could a political campaign use prediction markets? by Adam Siegel
The war against online gambling by Niall O’Connor
PMIA Search Needs an Explanation. by Alex Kirtland
The eLab eXchange Has Some Fun With Online Shopping This Holiday Season. by Donna Hoffman
Polls over prediction markets? by Nigel Eccles
Small comforts of prediction markets by Mike Linksvayer
Prediction Market Software by Jed Christiansen
ads, auctions and markets: a proposal by George Tziralis
Massachusetts governor’s proposal to send the TradeSports-InTrade traders to jail is foolish. by Steve Roman
Austan Goolsbee on Iraq and the Collective Wisdom of Bond Markets by Michael Giberson
How to sell art short by Jason Ruspini
If Musharraf goes, should we celebrate? by Eric Zitzewitz
How long will the writers’ strike last? And can prediction markets help answer this question? by Michael Giberson
Summary of Conference on Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (1 November), Kansas City by Koleman Strumpf
BetFair will xxxxxx xxx xxxxxxx xxxxxx, soon. by Deep Throat
TimeForm-i = BetFair’s innovative TimeForm = UK horse racing publication by Deep Throat
The Global Betting Exchange by Deep Throat
Two models of forecasting by Jed Christiansen
The Racing Post and TimeForm/BetFair are two competitors in the UK horseracing data publication business. by Deep Throat
Overview of Henry Manne’s, “Insider Trading: Hayek, Virtual Markets, and the Dog that Did Not Bark” by Michael Giberson
GDP up, recession probability down by James Hamilton
Presentation of Private Prediction Markets’ Legality Under U.S. Law by Tom W. Bell
BetFair will soon announce plans to publish their own starting prices. by Deep Throat
PurePlay’s Patented Legal Hack by Tom W. Bell
Prediction markets or insider trading could reveal information hidden from upper management by Michael Giberson
Reminder: Corporate Applications of Prediction Markets Conference (1 November) by Koleman Strumpf
Is sports betting legal if you bundle it with furniture? by Eric Zitzewitz
YooNew, fears and hopes by Jason Ruspini
Are Prediction Markets Constitutional? by Caveat Bettor
Prediction Market conference round-up by Jed Christiansen
Academics to discuss prediction market experience by Michael Giberson
Beware before citing the probabilistic predictions given by the prediction markets by Steve Roman
Demand forecasting systems: Spending a lot on software doesn’t guarantee success. by Michael Giberson
Great quote for the prediction markets faithful by Caveat Bettor
Combinatorial markets for independent events: Flawed use of approach hampers price discovery by Michael Giberson
Inferring market expectations from changes in fed funds futures prices by James Hamilton
UsableMarkets Reports from the NYC Prediction Market Conference (Yes, a little, er, a lot, late) by Alex Kirtland
Betfair must display its revolutionary credentials. by Niall O’Connor
New Prediction Markets Software Site - Qmarkets by Noam Danon
Political Strategy and Prediction Markets by Steve Roman
Betcha’s Continuing Legal Struggles, Updated by Michael Giberson
Prediction markets and the flow of information inside organizations by Michael Giberson
Bayesian World Series outlook by Michael Giberson
A portal, foretelling the future — Foretal by Julian Ellison
Encouraging participation in long-term information markets by Jason Ruspini
Profits to be down at Betfair by Niall O’Connor
Germany favored to win FIFA Women’s World Cup by Michael Giberson
Inkling forums are back. by Michael Giberson
The Consumer Behavior of Prediction Markets by Donna Hoffman
Global Warming prediction exchange is set up. by Caveat Bettor
Inkling Free Pilot Program by Adam Siegel
Enterprise 3.0: new representations, new markets by Emile Servan-Schreiber
US Online Gambling: Don’t bet on it. by Niall O’Connor
Author urges friends and fans to show support by buying shares at Media Predict. by Michael Giberson
Enthusiasm and Arbitrage Opportunities at Media Predict by Michael Giberson
Pennock & Sami on “Computational aspects of prediction markets” by Chris Hibbert
A new prediction markets explainer video by Jed Christiansen
NewsFutures’ Competitive Forecasting and Idea Pageant technologies are both featured on UC Riverside’s eLab eXchange by Emile Servan-Schreiber
Conference: Corporate Applications of Prediction/Information Markets (Thursday, 1 November 2007) by Koleman Strumpf
Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson by Michael Giberson
Extracting Market Predictions from Financial Data: Is the ‘Surge’ Working? by Michael Giberson
Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets by Chris Hibbert
The ultimate proof that InTrade and TradeSports are still the same entity. by Deep Throat
Creating a Prediction Market on Inkling for the Women’s World Cup was Easy! by Michael Giberson
Barone on America’s Three Regimes, by Morton Keller by Caveat Bettor
Goff comments on Vegas vs. Sports Pundits at The Sports Economist by Michael Giberson
David Eisenthal’s Final Look at His Massachusetts Fifth Congressional District Democratic Primary Prediction Market by Michael Giberson
Betfair partner goes to the wall. by Niall O’Connor
The simExchange on July video game sales by Brian Shiau
Robin Hanson to speak at the 2007 Prediction Markets Conference by David Perry
Some global warming updates from GISS by Caveat Bettor
O’Reilly Media Money:Tech Conference by Alex Kirtland
Shorting on Prediction Markets by Alex Kirtland
How to profit from tournament betting on Betfair by Pete Nordsted
Prediction Markets Conference in New York City by David Perry
Can prediction markets be gamed? by Caveat Bettor
Betfair results eagerly awaited by Niall O’Connor
Widespread Corruption in Sports Gambling: Fact or Fiction? by Rick Borghesi
Price Biases in a Prediction Market: NFL Contracts on Tradesports by Rick Borghesi
Inkling Forums disappear. by Michael Giberson
The NFL’s Home Underdog Bias: Timing and Weather by Rick Borghesi
Betcha’s Continuing Legal Struggles by Michael Giberson
U.S. Prediction Markets May Want to Review Court Decision in NYMEX v. Intercontinental Exchange. by Michael Giberson
Person-to-person freeform betting by Nigel Eccles
Interpreting fed funds futures by James Hamilton
The truth of the source code by George Tziralis
Adam Siegel interviews first “Million Inkle Trader”. by Michael Giberson
The Most Active Inkling Market Ever? by Michael Giberson
A Betting Exchange Case Study – 20% better profit? by Toby Martin
IPO Price Discovery by Brian Shiau
How to win on the Betfair markets by Pete Nordsted
Point Shaving in the NBA: An Economic Analysis of the NBA’s Point Spread Betting Market by Jonathan Gibbs
eHorseX - the Betting Exchange by Toby Martin
NPD June sales data reviewed by Brian Shiau
Prediction markets and Pinker’s dangerous ideas by Caveat Bettor
Deep Throat on the George Mason University exodus to Chapman University. by Deep Throat
All GMU’s ICES faculty except Houser and McCabe are leaving to join Chapman University. by Deep Throat
New Kid on the Blog: Nosco. by Jesper Muller-Krogstrup
Deep Throat on HedgeStreet — Again by Deep Throat
More Business Cases? by Deep Throat
Copernican Principle: How To Predict the End of the World by Koleman Strumpf
Justice, Washington State Gambling Commission Style by Nick Jenkins
Deep Throat on the expiry of the Harry Potter event derivative by Deep Throat
Terrorism Futures = Repugnant Market? by Michael Giberson
The intelligent solution can sometimes be more damaging than the problem. by Caveat Bettor
New Fee Structure At TradeSports Causes Confusion. by Jay Graziani
Deep Throat sells Harry Potter short. by Deep Throat
Fox Business News Channel Beginning Oct. 15th by Caveat Bettor
Betcha.com: On Steamroller Justice and Reports of our Demise by Nick Jenkins
What should be Done about Manipulation of Prediction Markets? by Michael Giberson
Overview of Robin Hanson’s Paper, “Insider Trading and Prediction Markets” by Michael Giberson
Like I’ve been saying about global warming contracts by Caveat Bettor
Shifting from stocks to futures by Brian Shiau
Volumes on InTrade are way up from 2004. by Eric Zitzewitz
Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. by Eric Zitzewitz
Supporting Your Candidate on Inkling? by Michael Giberson
If They Can’t Use It, Train Them! by Alex Kirtland
Max Keiser’s thoughts on the current version of the Hollywood Stock Exchange by Max Keiser
Deep-Pocketed Manipulators are a Prediction Market’s Friend. by Michael Giberson
Intrade: Obama and Clinton at near-parity by Alex Forshaw
Organizations That Do Not Need People Anymore — HedgeStreet Edition by Deep Throat
Tradesports announces fee refunds. by Caveat Bettor
Deep Throat’s third thoughts on TradeSports Cost of Service by Deep Throat
Structure and Behavior of Commodities Markets by Rod Carvalho
The Second Workshop on Prediction Markets by Yiling Chen
Any trader who is riding a winning position for the past few months has to hold it to expiry now or else pay 4% to take profit on his OLD position, which was clearly not written into the contract when he PUT THE POSITION ON. No exchange governed by U.S. law could ever get away with this without being sued into oblivion. by Deep Throat
Deep Throat is asking a clarification from TradeSports on its cost of service. by Deep Throat
How the Fed accelerated the inflation it is now confronting by Caveat Bettor
TradeSports Cost of Service Charts by Todd Griepenburg
Wisdom of outliers helps crowds, or Average > Median by Caveat Bettor
Paper on Corporate Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
Macro reflections on private equity hypocrisy, and recent dollar history by Caveat Bettor
Rank order rankles me more than Jed. by Caveat Bettor
Deep Throat on the Red Monitor Prognosemarkt by Deep Throat
Tradesports announces new fee structure. by Caveat Bettor
World context for US publicly held debt by Caveat Bettor
Tax information from winnings from IEM by Philip Cleary
Betcha.com’s Hack of Anti-Internet Gaming Laws by Tom W. Bell
NPD releases May sales data, Crowd vs Expert compared by Brian Shiau
Deep Throat on the latest InTrade-TradeSports so-called incident. by Deep Throat
Libertarian reflections on the Sopranos and prediction markets by Caveat Bettor
After Predicting an Event Outcome, Does Anticipated Regret Take All of the Fun Out of Watching the Event? by Michael Giberson
European Foresight Project Launches Prediction Market. by Andreas Graefe
Harry Potter will NOT die? Don’t Bet on It. by Michael Giberson
Ron Paul’s zealot(s) on Intrade by Alex Forshaw
Marketplace Radio says: Don’t bet on Internet gambling ban’s reversal. by Michael Giberson
An Employee Stock Option Prediction Market by Eric Zitzewitz
Win Justin’s Money? (re: Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux.) by Koleman Strumpf
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? Redux. by Justin Wolfers
Is there manipulation in the Hillary Clinton Intrade market? by Koleman Strumpf
Manipulation can affect prices. by Eric Zitzewitz
Demise of a Sarko Killer by Emile Servan-Schreiber
Policy Event Derivatives by Jason Ruspini
Media Predict’s Brent Stinski interviewed by Sandra Ruttan by Deep Throat
Seeking nominations for an industry panel at the Second Workshop on Prediction Markets by David Pennock
Flipping off your base: a cautionary tale by Alex Forshaw
Proving business value by Jed Christiansen
Media Predict and “Infinite Reflection” by Brent F. Stinski
The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets Workshop starts today. by George Tziralis
The law of one price by Niall O’Connor
MEDIA PREDICT, INKLING AND PATENTS by Bo Cowgill
Meet Chris. F. Masse. by Deep Throat
Intrade politics roundup, May 18 by Alex Forshaw
NPD releases April sales data, prediction market and analyst compared by Brian Shiau
Rite-Solutions’ Innovation Engine is based on Lotus Notes. by Deep Throat
The human time constant by Caveat Bettor
Accounting sales of digitally downloaded games by Brian Shiau
Squawk on Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts by Menzie Chinn
There are three US-based, HedgeStreet-like prediction exchanges in the tube. by Deep Throat
A HedgeStreet-like prediction exchange is planned in an African country. by Deep Throat
Glen Boyle has received funding to start up a political prediction exchange in New Zealand. by Deep Throat
Prediction Power of Options Markets by Peter Seed
Safe Harbor Letter too Timid by Chris Hibbert
Experimenting with different market types by Jed Christiansen
The limitations of logic (and the need for passion) by Caveat Bettor
Secrets of an Inkling Top Trader: Spotting Riskless Arbitrage Opportunities by Michael Giberson
HedgeStreet showing new preview site… by Mark Rose
Critical Mass Matters. by Mark Rose
Political futures, exam-week edition by Alex Forshaw
Statement on Prediction Markets by Robert Hahn
US resorts to sleight of hand in WTO case. by Niall O’Connor
No prediction market bloggers on Blogshares by David Pennock
Can Prediction Markets Help Eliminate Poverty? by Michael Strong
Prediction Market Resources by Jed Christiansen
A lesson in stock trading mechanics by Brian Shiau
Tony Soprano, poster child for fast burn gamblers by Caveat Bettor
Beyond the Continuous Double Auction - Part II, Existing alternatives by Alan Jewell
2008 candidates: the bottom line by Alex Forshaw
Ruminating on political futures activity by Alex Forshaw
The Civil War Gold Hoax by Jason Ruspini
Recession probability index rises to 16.9% by James Hamilton
Thoughts on the Democrats’ debate by Alex Forshaw
Hybrid Prediction Markets by George Tziralis
FIRMWARE AND PREDICTION MARKETS: INKLING IS RIGHT. by Bo Cowgill
Yahoo Quietly Launches Real Money Poker Site. by Daniel Horowitz
Leading political indicators by Alex Forshaw
Robin Hanson as Prospective Economics Nobel Laureate by Michael Strong
There are three financial prediction exchanges in the tube. by Deep Throat
Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet. by David Stalcup
Next lesson: so the “futures” aren’t really futures by Brian Shiau
So what exactly are these “futures?” by Brian Shiau
Hurricane contracts? Yes! But where are the global warming contracts? by Caveat Bettor
The ontological role of derivatives by Khurram Naik
Are punters sophisticated? by Niall O’Connor
Intro to Prediction Markets Presentation by Alex Kirtland
Tax futures and the libertarian paradox by Jason Ruspini
What are the futures markets for? by Khurram Naik
Deep Throat on the CFTC and the prediction markets by Deep Throat
Deep Throat on Longitude, the software used by CME Economic Derivatives by Deep Throat
What traders bring to and want from prediction markets by Alan Jewell
The Plan To Take the Online Gaming Market - US Gaming Firms Tale of Shame by Steve Roman
Market’s Bubble Bursts: Predictions Tie for Last Among 30 Experts by Keith Jacks Gamble
The Economist is taking suggestions. by Mike Linksvayer
Soliciting Research Papers for the 2nd Workshop on Prediction Markets by David Pennock
The Giuliani manipulator buyer is back by Jason Ruspini
The Economic Derivatives Market by Justin Wolfers
Conditional and Combinatorial Betting by Chris Hibbert
What does the TradeSports/InTrade “split” really amount to? by Deep Throat
InTrade-TradeSports faces a grim future. by Deep Throat
What exactly does HSX sell to the movie studios? by Deep Throat
HedgeStreet had a major layoff last week. by Deep Throat
Third E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports by Todd Griepenburg
Second E-mail to InTrade-TradeSports by Todd Griepenburg
Designing Markets for Monthly Sales by Joey Crampton
XM-Sirius merger by Eric Zitzewitz
A Big Trader’s Open Letter to TradeSports-InTrade by Todd Griepenburg
Misunderstanding Prediction Market Failures by Barry Ritholtz
Presentation on Legality of Prediction Markets Under U.S. Law by Tom W. Bell
Seeking Presenters for a “Prediction Markets in Philanthropy” Conference by Michael Strong
Top 5 Plays of the Super Bowl? Market says No. by Keith Jacks Gamble
Inkling Markets: Try Before You Buy. — REDUX by Chris F. Masse
Super Bowl Analysis Highlights by Keith Jacks Gamble
Non-obstacles to CFTC-regulated political event derivatives by Jason Ruspini
Danger of “self-fulfilling prophecy” in political event markets by Alex Forshaw
Some interesting historical data on the Superbowl by Caveat Bettor
The Recessions of 2003, 2004, 2006 & 2006 by Caveat Bettor
An invitation to join the simExchange beta by Brian Shiau
The Homebuilder Sell Sirens Call Again by Jason Ruspini
A Global Warming Prediction Market? by Sacha Peter
What are futures? by Deep Throat
How to trade in futures market? by Deep Throat
Aloha, Poker Players Alliance by Jason Ruspini
How about balanced budget contracts? by Caveat Bettor
Email Interview: Ken Kittlitz by Ken Kittlitz
Long-term housing derivatives? by Mike Linksvayer
TradeSports reincorporates in two, just in time for NETeller’s immolation. by Alex Forshaw
No, wisdom does not require markets. by Christopher Thompson
Does wisdom require markets? by David Pennock
Discussion about applicability of prediction markets for long-term prediction! by Christian Wiehe
Why Prohibitions on Internet Gambling Won’t Work. by Koleman Strumpf
The LindeX Currency Exchange by Jason Ruspini
Conditional Superbowl victory probabilities by Caveat Bettor
Don’t take those economic forecasts so seriously by Caveat Bettor
InTrade will charge a fee for API access and usage. by Deep Throat
Global warming contract suggestion by Caveat Bettor
Writing an Article About Political Prediction Markets by Andrew Goldberg
Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers by Chris Hibbert
E-mail from an Edwards trader. [edited] by Alex Forshaw
Humble Dr. Bob crushes Vegas handicappers. by Caveat Bettor
Yootle interest rates and inflation by Jason Ruspini
Latest conditional probabilities for NFL playoff teams by Caveat Bettor
Insight or Connection - How Kynikos Associates Profited from the Gaming Bill by Steve Roman
Combining forecasts by James Hamilton
For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes by Caveat Bettor
A decision market for judging outcomes of predictions by Crosbie Fitch
Thoughts on Weather Bill by Eric Zitzewitz
What will the Fed do next? by James Hamilton
Levitt’s risky prize-seeking behavior by Mike Linksvayer
Legalized Internet Gaming in New York by Steve Roman
Sports vs. Non-Sports Divestiture by Caveat Bettor
Arbitrage is a critical component of market comparisons. by Sacha Peter
Iran - Is Something Really Up? by Jonathan Gewirtz
HP and corporate prediction markets mechanisms by Jason Ruspini
Deep Throat on Deep Throat on Deep Throat on BetBrokers, “the World’s first independent betting brokerage” by Deep Throat
Deep Throat on Deep Throat on BetBrokers, “the World’s first independent betting brokerage” by Deep Throat
Deep Throat’s Questions on Prediction Market Software Vendors - 2 by Deep Throat
Deep Throat’s Questions on Prediction Market Software Vendors by Deep Throat
How to settle prediction market debates by Sacha Peter
Prediction Markets “Excluded” from CFTC Jurisdiction? by Tom W. Bell
“Fire: Other” Futures by Jason Ruspini
NYMEX to launch Property Damage Risk Futures by Jason Ruspini
Prediction Markets for the CFO by Eric Zitzewitz
Deep Throat on the NewsFutures’s Dutch debacle by Deep Throat
Libertarian baiting by Mike Linksvayer
Perry Metzger on Peter McCluskey’s essay - Should Prediction Markets be Charities? by Deep Throat
Gävle Goat Terrorism Futures by Sacha Peter
Tales from the Chart Side by Alex Kirtland
confab.yahoo on prediction markets: Update by David Pennock
2006 and the Econbrowser crystal ball by James Hamilton
Irankling Study Group by Mike Linksvayer
Futility of real-money/play-money market linkage by Alex Forshaw
Swamping the 2008 nominations market with outside capital by Alex Forshaw
Flora of North America (CFTC regulation again) by Jason Ruspini
Credit Event Futures and other fauna by Jason Ruspini
Forget the polls and computers, let markets pick the top 2. by Eric Zitzewitz
REPLY–Bo Cowgill (”Color me perplexed…”) by Alex Forshaw
How to Define EU Failure for Betting Purposes? by Jonathan Gewirtz
Recession Contract Proposal by Caveat Bettor
The HRC attack, part 2 by Alex Forshaw
TechCentralStation grasps for one too many “wisdom of crowds” straws. by Alex Forshaw
confab.yahoo on prediction markets: Sunnyvale, Dec 13 5:30p by David Pennock
Economic Derivatives Auction Trader Motivations by Jason Ruspini
Beating the odds in 2008; Changing the game in 2012? by Byrne Hobart
Economies of scale in event markets? by Alex Forshaw
Discounting and prediction market prices by Jason Ruspini
Speaking of Definitions …. by Alex Kirtland
Gartman’s Rules of Trading by Steve Roman
Prediction Markets Definitions by Robin Hanson
Summary of the Tradesports DEMS.HOUSE.OVER29.5 issue, and the TS “credibility gap” by Alex Forshaw
Paul Tetlock’s two clarifications about the Tetlock-Hahn economic purpose test by Deep Throat
Geoscientist vs. the prediction markets by Alan Jewell
No change: Mispricing is greater in illiquid markets. by Hubertus Hofkirchner
Political Factor Analysis by Jason Ruspini
The five minutes on my 15 minutes of WSJ fame. by Alex Forshaw
Deep Throat on the Hollywood Stock Exchange by Deep Throat
Deep Throat on TradeSports-InTrade’s spin doctoring machine by Deep Throat
Deep Throat on BetBrokers, “the World’s first independent betting brokerage” by Deep Throat
Deep Throat on the upcoming CME’s Credit Event Futures by Deep Throat
Accuracy of futures prices as predictors of the fed funds rate by James Hamilton
An Extended Literature Review on Prediction Markets by George Tziralis
Chinese Markets by Bo Cowgill
Benefits and non-benefits of sports betting markets by Andrew Gelman
Best Trading Interface? Here’s One Possibility. by Robert McLister
Is the hedging economic purpose test ambiguous? by Jason Ruspini
Prediction Markets Search Engine by George Tziralis
An Email Interview: Alex Kirtland by Alex Kirtland
One way or the other by James Hamilton
Who are the market leaders in enterprise prediction market solutions??? - Deep Throat’s answer: by Deep Throat
TradeSports Castro Contract and CUBA by Steve Roman
Did the Korean Bomb help the Republicans? by Sam Savage
Short Odds for Ignorance by Paul Tetlock
Odds of GOP Retaining Congressional Control by Barry Ritholtz
Safe Harbor for Prediction Markets in SAFE Port Act by Tom W. Bell
Tom W. Bell’s (skill-based) scientific prediction exchange by Jason Ruspini
Gambling and a New Approach to Regulating Information Markets by Paul Tetlock
How important will the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act be? Markets think pretty important. by Justin Wolfers
Map of TradeSports prices for US Senate election by David Pennock
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