Prediction Markets = Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts

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The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

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  • Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts? by Michael Giberson
  • At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Patrick Young (InTrade’s fifth Beatle) still can’t figure out the industry he helped created. by Chris F. Masse
  • NewsFutures OKays “collective forecasting”. by Chris F. Masse
  • Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts by Chris F. Masse
  • Predicting vs. Forecasting by Chris F. Masse
  • Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting” by Chris F. Masse
  • What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting” by Chris F. Masse
  • Forecasting or Predicting? by Chris F. Masse
  • Collective Forecasting, Anyone? by Chris F. Masse
  • Confusing the prediction markets with the non-trading collective intelligence solutions by Chris F. Masse
  • Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.” by Chris F. Masse
  • “The fact that Inkling needs five bullet points and a graph to explain short selling is a good indication it’s too complicated.” by Chris F. Masse
  • The truth about prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets & Knowledge Management by Chris F. Masse
  • BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
  • Definition of Collective Intelligence by Chris F. Masse
  • Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold? by Chris F. Masse
  • Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast. by Chris F. Masse
  • The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count by Emile Servan-Schreiber
  • Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather? by Chris F. Masse
  • How do the HubDub prediction markets work? How can I predict the upcoming news? by Chris F. Masse
  • Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. by Chris F. Masse
  • What is a prediction market? What is the utility of enterprise prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Market Definition —updated by Chris F. Masse
  • YooPick = an innovation in spread betting markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Information Value of Enterprise Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • iPredict New Zealand by Chris F. Masse
  • WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE. by Chris F. Masse
  • How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? by Chris F. Masse
  • The second CNBC video on InTrade’s prediction markets is up and running. by Chris F. Masse
  • CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrade’s prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff. by Chris F. Masse
  • In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS. by Chris F. Masse
  • “To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.” by Chris F. Masse
  • How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition by Chris F. Masse
  • Derivatives, Binaries, Futures, or… Prediction Markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets looks like a messy Marrakesh bazaar. — Shame on all members of the field of prediction markets –including the author of this present, finger-wagging post. by Chris F. Masse
  • Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks. by Chris F. Masse
  • ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Collecting bits and pieces of information, and aggregating it, so we can understand what people know. by Chris F. Masse
  • How BetFair markets are settled in the situation where their integrity team are unhappy about some aspect of the betting on that event by Guest Author
  • BetFair Education has now a sub-site within the BetFair blog. by Chris F. Masse
  • If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market). by Chris F. Masse
  • Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset. by Chris F. Masse
  • BetFair’s future bet-matching logic by Chris F. Masse
  • The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets — The McKinsey conference should have been rooted in the economic science and McKinsey should have invited economists. by Chris F. Masse
  • How accurate are prediction markets in US elections? by Chris F. Masse
  • Speculating on event derivative markets is not “investing”. by Chris F. Masse
  • Video on InTrade’s political prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. by Chris F. Masse
  • A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. by Chris F. Masse
  • A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !?? by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so the prices can be read as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. by Chris F. Masse
  • BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching. by Chris F. Masse
  • The concept of probabilistic prediction explained to the journalists and bloggers by Chris F. Masse
  • The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming by David Pennock
  • BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price by Chris F. Masse
  • Implied Probability of an Outcome –BetFair Edition by Chris F. Masse
  • BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities by Chris F. Masse
  • P(election) = P(nomination) * P(election conditional on nomination) by Chris F. Masse
  • The conundrum of the betting market = the favorite-longshot bias. by Chris F. Masse
  • Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy by Chris F. Masse
  • Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101 by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy by Chris F. Masse
  • Defining Probability in Prediction Markets by Panos Ipeirotis
  • Prediction Markets 101 by Chris F. Masse
  • GIGO and prophets, tears and markets by George Tziralis
  • CNN Political Market = soon, the Planet Earth’s most traded play-money prediction exchange —after HSX. by Chris F. Masse
  • What the hell is crowdsourcing??? by Chris F. Masse
  • How does a betting exchange work? by Chris F. Masse
  • 0-100 prices… explained to the British traders. by Chris F. Masse
  • Do you see a sixth dimension to the prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • TradeFair Binaries User Guide – What is Trading? by Chris F. Masse
  • Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans. by Chris F. Masse
  • The details on BetFair’s Starting Prices by Chris F. Masse
  • Yes, Economics is a Science. by Chris F. Masse
  • Decision markets are markets where speculators set prices that estimate the consequences of a decision. by Chris F. Masse
  • The BetFair Starting Prices… explained by Chris F. Masse
  • How to make a set of Xpree prediction markets in 3 easy steps by Chris F. Masse
  • A virtual tour of InTrade, the leading prediction exchange for North America by Chris F. Masse
  • Explainer on Binary Betting with a Bookmaker by Chris F. Masse
  • Who wrote the broadest definition of prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • SophistPundit – Finite Mathematics by Chris F. Masse
  • Network Effects = Network Externalities by Chris F. Masse
  • The InTrade-TradeSports explainer by Chris F. Masse
  • How does a spread-betting exchange work? by Chris F. Masse
  • Robin Hanson’s annoying insistence on distinguishing prediction markets from betting markets by Chris F. Masse
  • The Inkling explainers on prediction markets are absolutely awesome. by Chris F. Masse
  • ADAM SIEGEL OF INKLING MARKETS VALIDATES CHRIS MASSE’S CONCEPT OF X GROUPS. by Chris F. Masse
  • The Inkling Markets explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • A methodology flaw in the last UK Gambling Commission’s survey report makes it useless for analysts and policy makers. by Chris F. Masse
  • Enthusiasm and Arbitrage Opportunities at Media Predict by Michael Giberson
  • How does Koleman Strumpf define the prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse
  • Here’s how Bet2Give explains what a prediction market is to its prospects. by Chris F. Masse
  • Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson by Michael Giberson
  • Risk that can be measured Vs. Uncertainty that cannot be measured by Chris F. Masse
  • Market Scoring Rules, best mechanism design ever?? by Chris F. Masse
  • The Robin Hanson explainer on decision markets for governments by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets – Practical Adoption by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets vs. Other Forecasting Tools by Chris F. Masse
  • The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Create your own prediction market at Inkling Markets in just 5 steps. by Chris F. Masse
  • Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets by Chris Hibbert
  • How To Make Money With Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Storage Markets explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • The Meaning of Probability, Class Probability, Case Probability, Betting, and Gambling by Chris F. Masse
  • Jed Christiansen’s video explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Shorting on Prediction Markets by Alex Kirtland
  • What is a network externality? by Chris F. Masse
  • HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline by Chris F. Masse
  • INTEL BUSINESS CASE: INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS DO WORK. by Chris F. Masse
  • Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. by Eric Zitzewitz
  • Paper on Corporate Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell
  • Pop Sci outputs a flawed and biased explainer on prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse
  • Pop Sci PredictionS Exchange by Chris F. Masse
  • With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate. by Chris F. Masse
  • MatchBook – Betting Exchange Explainer by Chris F. Masse
  • Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet. by David Stalcup
  • ENTREPRENEURSHIP and MARKETING by Chris F. Masse
  • Intro to Prediction Markets Presentation by Alex Kirtland
  • The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options) by Chris F. Masse
  • EVENT DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE or PREDICTION EXCHANGE or BETTING EXCHANGE? by Chris F. Masse
  • Memo to Mike Knesevitch: EVENT MARKETS, no good. by Chris F. Masse
  • Keyword Of The Day: NETWORK EXTERNALITIES by Chris F. Masse
  • The InTrade prediction market, a live options bazaar trading in current events and politics by Chris F. Masse
  • Structuring the Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Conditional and Combinatorial Betting by Chris Hibbert
  • Prediction Markets for Businesses by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets vs. Decision Markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Trading Bets at BetFair – Betting Exchange Explainer – Backing vs. Laying by Chris F. Masse
  • Beware when using acronyms. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets – Tapping the Wisdom of Crowds by Chris F. Masse
  • BetFair Multiples by Chris F. Masse
  • What the hell is a predicted probability?? – REDUX by Chris F. Masse
  • What the hell is a predicted probability?? by Chris F. Masse
  • Information or Event?? by Chris F. Masse
  • Information Derivatives, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse
  • Prognostic Markets, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse
  • How does the Hollywood Stock Exchange work? by Chris F. Masse
  • Prognosis Markets, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse
  • Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers by Chris Hibbert
  • BetFair’s explainer on betting exchanges by Chris F. Masse
  • NewsFutures’s explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse
  • Prof. Bainbridge on Burton Malkiel on the efficient capital markets theory (ECMH) by Chris F. Masse
  • Jason Ruspini wants clarification, too… by Chris F. Masse
  • HUMAN market makers = LEAD market makers by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets Definitions – REDUX REDUX by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets DEFINITIONS – not a “taxonomy” by Chris F. Masse
  • Professor Robin Hanson’s draft definitions are validated by professor Eric Zitzewitz. by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets Definitions – REDUX by Chris F. Masse
  • Prediction Markets Definitions by Robin Hanson
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