Explainers

The Midas Oracle Explainers On Prediction Markets

-

Technical Tip: To search this archive page within your browser, go to “Edit” and “Find”, and type your query.

-

Can prediction markets help improve economic forecasts? by Michael Giberson

At the contrary, let’s call them prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets = Betting Markets = Event Derivative Markets by Chris F. Masse

The Accuracy Of Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Patrick Young (InTrade’s fifth Beatle) still can’t figure out the industry he helped created. by Chris F. Masse

NewsFutures OKays “collective forecasting”. by Chris F. Masse

Predicting = Forecasting –> Collective Forecasting = Collective Intelligence That Predicts by Chris F. Masse

Predicting vs. Forecasting by Chris F. Masse

Prof Andrew Gelman on “predicting” and “forecasting” by Chris F. Masse

What Robin Hanson didn’t tell you about “forecasting” by Chris F. Masse

Forecasting or Predicting? by Chris F. Masse

Collective Forecasting, Anyone? by Chris F. Masse

Confusing the prediction markets with the non-trading collective intelligence solutions by Chris F. Masse

Gartner: The “benefit” of enterprise prediction markets is “moderate” and “early users, who have begun to overestimate their accuracy and overall usefulness, are now somewhat disillusioned with the technology.” by Chris F. Masse

“The fact that Inkling needs five bullet points and a graph to explain short selling is a good indication it’s too complicated.” by Chris F. Masse

The truth about prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets & Knowledge Management by Chris F. Masse

BetFair – Live Chat Session – Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Definition of Collective Intelligence by Chris F. Masse

Are collective intelligence solutions being oversold? by Chris F. Masse

Koleman Strumpf assesses the election forecast. by Chris F. Masse

The proper way to predict Obama’s electoral vote count by Emile Servan-Schreiber

Don’t event derivative prices represent aggregated expected probabilities, rather? by Chris F. Masse

How do the HubDub prediction markets work? How can I predict the upcoming news? by Chris F. Masse

Enterprise Prediction Markets = The wisdom of crowds comes to the enterprise. by Chris F. Masse

What is a prediction market? What is the utility of enterprise prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson is now Chief Scientist of Consensus Point. by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Market Definition —updated by Chris F. Masse

YooPick = an innovation in spread betting markets by Chris F. Masse

Information Value of Enterprise Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

iPredict New Zealand by Chris F. Masse

WORLD’S #1 PREDICTION MARKET GURU DELIVERS THE SPEECH OF THE CENTURY, THEN LOSES HIS VOICE. by Chris F. Masse

How do InTrade’s prediction markets work, and are they really accurate? by Chris F. Masse

The second CNBC video on InTrade’s prediction markets is up and running. by Chris F. Masse

CNBC airs an upbeat explainer about InTrade’s prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets = marketplaces for information trading… and for separating the wheat from the chaff. by Chris F. Masse

In a blow to the French, BetFair choose Bastille Day to premiere the revised version of the bet-matching logic of their prediction markets. — IMPROVEMENT MEANS BETTER LIQUIDITY FOR THEIR EVENT DERIVATIVE TRADERS. by Chris F. Masse

“To someone like me who trades professionally and also ran for Congress a few years back, InTrade is a marriage made in heaven.” by Chris F. Masse

How the CFTC try to define our prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Ends and Means of Prediction Markets — Tom W. Bell Edition by Chris F. Masse

Derivatives, Binaries, Futures, or… Prediction Markets? by Chris F. Masse

The Wikipedia entry on prediction markets looks like a messy Marrakesh bazaar. — Shame on all members of the field of prediction markets –including the author of this present, finger-wagging post. by Chris F. Masse

Robust, the prediction markets are the best mechanism for aggregating information. Thus, companies should use them for assessing strategy and hedging risks. by Chris F. Masse

ABC 20/20 — A good (but servile) explainer on the wisdom of crowds and the prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Collecting bits and pieces of information, and aggregating it, so we can understand what people know. by Chris F. Masse

How BetFair markets are settled in the situation where their integrity team are unhappy about some aspect of the betting on that event by Guest Author

BetFair Education has now a sub-site within the BetFair blog. by Chris F. Masse

If the British legal betting companies offer bets on the sport, it is because there is demand for bets on the sport —and if that demand were not offered in a regulated environment, it would be filled in an unregulated one (like what we see with TradeSports-InTrade and MatchBook in the US market). by Chris F. Masse

Professor Koleman Strumpf tells CNN that a prediction market, by essence, can’t predict an upset. by Chris F. Masse

BetFair’s future bet-matching logic by Chris F. Masse

The Promise Of Enterprise Prediction Markets — The McKinsey conference should have been rooted in the economic science and McKinsey should have invited economists. by Chris F. Masse

How accurate are prediction markets in US elections? by Chris F. Masse

Speculating on event derivative markets is not “investing”. by Chris F. Masse

Video on InTrade’s political prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

YouTube Videos on Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Info Value = the added accuracy the markets provide relative to other mechanisms, times the value that accuracy can give in improved decisions, minus the cost of maintaining the markets, relative to the cost of other mechanisms. by Chris F. Masse

A highly accurate prediction market has little value if other mechanisms can provide similar accuracy at a lower cost, or if few substantial decisions are influenced by accurate forecasts on its topic. by Chris F. Masse

A Betting Exchange = A Bookmaker —> !?? by Chris F. Masse

Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are structured so the prices can be read as a percent likelihood of an event occurring. by Chris F. Masse

BetFair changes the logic of its bet matching. by Chris F. Masse

The concept of probabilistic prediction explained to the journalists and bloggers by Chris F. Masse

The right way to implement a multi-outcome prediction market: Linear programming by David Pennock

BetFair SP = BetFair Starting Price by Chris F. Masse

Implied Probability of an Outcome –BetFair Edition by Chris F. Masse

BetFair Digital Odds = BetFair Probabilities by Chris F. Masse

P(election) = P(nomination) * P(election conditional on nomination) by Chris F. Masse

The conundrum of the betting market = the favorite-longshot bias. by Chris F. Masse

Fundamentals of Prediction Markets: Probabilities, Prediction Timescale, and Absolute & Relative Accuracy by Chris F. Masse

Assessing Probabilistic Predictions 101 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Market Efficiency vs. Prediction Market Accuracy by Chris F. Masse

Defining Probability in Prediction Markets by Panos Ipeirotis

Prediction Markets 101 by Chris F. Masse

GIGO and prophets, tears and markets by George Tziralis

CNN Political Market = soon, the Planet Earth’s most traded play-money prediction exchange —after HSX. by Chris F. Masse

What the hell is crowdsourcing??? by Chris F. Masse

How does a betting exchange work? by Chris F. Masse

0-100 prices… explained to the British traders. by Chris F. Masse

Do you see a sixth dimension to the prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse

TradeFair Binaries User Guide – What is Trading? by Chris F. Masse

Slate publishes a BetFair explainer for the Americans. by Chris F. Masse

The details on BetFair’s Starting Prices by Chris F. Masse

Yes, Economics is a Science. by Chris F. Masse

Decision markets are markets where speculators set prices that estimate the consequences of a decision. by Chris F. Masse

The BetFair Starting Prices… explained by Chris F. Masse

How to make a set of Xpree prediction markets in 3 easy steps by Chris F. Masse

A virtual tour of InTrade, the leading prediction exchange for North America by Chris F. Masse

Explainer on Binary Betting with a Bookmaker by Chris F. Masse

Who wrote the broadest definition of prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse

SophistPundit – Finite Mathematics by Chris F. Masse

Network Effects = Network Externalities by Chris F. Masse

The InTrade-TradeSports explainer by Chris F. Masse

How does a spread-betting exchange work? by Chris F. Masse

Robin Hanson’s annoying insistence on distinguishing prediction markets from betting markets by Chris F. Masse

The Inkling explainers on prediction markets are absolutely awesome. by Chris F. Masse

ADAM SIEGEL OF INKLING MARKETS VALIDATES CHRIS MASSE’S CONCEPT OF X GROUPS. by Chris F. Masse

The Inkling Markets explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

A methodology flaw in the last UK Gambling Commission’s survey report makes it useless for analysts and policy makers. by Chris F. Masse

Enthusiasm and Arbitrage Opportunities at Media Predict by Michael Giberson

How does Koleman Strumpf define the prediction markets? by Chris F. Masse

Here’s how Bet2Give explains what a prediction market is to its prospects. by Chris F. Masse

Hanson’s Market Scoring Rule Explained in Five Sentences, Why Betfair Gets So Little U.S. Press Coverage, and other Half-Baked Commentary by Michael Giberson by Michael Giberson

Risk that can be measured Vs. Uncertainty that cannot be measured by Chris F. Masse

Market Scoring Rules, best mechanism design ever?? by Chris F. Masse

The Robin Hanson explainer on decision markets for governments by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets – Practical Adoption by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets vs. Other Forecasting Tools by Chris F. Masse

The Robin Hanson explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Create your own prediction market at Inkling Markets in just 5 steps. by Chris F. Masse

Market Makers for Multi-Outcome Markets by Chris Hibbert

How To Make Money With Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Storage Markets explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

The Meaning of Probability, Class Probability, Case Probability, Betting, and Gambling by Chris F. Masse

Jed Christiansen’s video explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Shorting on Prediction Markets by Alex Kirtland

What is a network externality? by Chris F. Masse

HISTORY: Prediction Markets Timeline by Chris F. Masse

INTEL BUSINESS CASE: INTERNAL PREDICTION MARKETS DO WORK. by Chris F. Masse

Is Manipulation Good for a Prediction Market? Accuracy Isn’t Everything. by Eric Zitzewitz

Paper on Corporate Prediction Markets by Tom W. Bell

Pop Sci outputs a flawed and biased explainer on prediction markets. by Chris F. Masse

Pop Sci PredictionS Exchange by Chris F. Masse

With a prediction market, everyone brings a small piece of information to the table, and the consensus proves surprisingly accurate. by Chris F. Masse

MatchBook – Betting Exchange Explainer by Chris F. Masse

Americans Need to Embrace Betting Exchanges as the Preferred Way to Bet. by David Stalcup

ENTREPRENEURSHIP and MARKETING by Chris F. Masse

Intro to Prediction Markets Presentation by Alex Kirtland

The Sim Exchange: Stocks vs. Stock Derivatives (Futures & Options) by Chris F. Masse

EVENT DERIVATIVES EXCHANGE or PREDICTION EXCHANGE or BETTING EXCHANGE? by Chris F. Masse

Memo to Mike Knesevitch: EVENT MARKETS, no good. by Chris F. Masse

Keyword Of The Day: NETWORK EXTERNALITIES by Chris F. Masse

The InTrade prediction market, a live options bazaar trading in current events and politics by Chris F. Masse

Structuring the Prediction Markets by Chris F. Masse

Conditional and Combinatorial Betting by Chris Hibbert

Prediction Markets for Businesses by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets vs. Decision Markets by Chris F. Masse

Trading Bets at BetFair – Betting Exchange Explainer – Backing vs. Laying by Chris F. Masse

Beware when using acronyms. by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets – Tapping the Wisdom of Crowds by Chris F. Masse

BetFair Multiples by Chris F. Masse

What the hell is a predicted probability?? – REDUX by Chris F. Masse

What the hell is a predicted probability?? by Chris F. Masse

Information or Event?? by Chris F. Masse

Information Derivatives, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse

Prognostic Markets, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse

How does the Hollywood Stock Exchange work? by Chris F. Masse

Prognosis Markets, Anyone?? by Chris F. Masse

Integrating Book Orders and Market Makers by Chris Hibbert

BetFair’s explainer on betting exchanges by Chris F. Masse

NewsFutures’s explainer on prediction markets by Chris F. Masse

Prof. Bainbridge on Burton Malkiel on the efficient capital markets theory (ECMH) by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini wants clarification, too… by Chris F. Masse

HUMAN market makers = LEAD market makers by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets Definitions – REDUX REDUX by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets DEFINITIONS – not a “taxonomy” by Chris F. Masse

Professor Robin Hanson’s draft definitions are validated by professor Eric Zitzewitz. by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets Definitions – REDUX by Chris F. Masse

Prediction Markets Definitions by Robin Hanson

-

-

Midas Oracle Contents

- Pages

- Posts

- Best Posts

- Probabilistic Predictions

-

About Midas Oracle

- About Midas Oracle .ORG

- Blog Authors

- Contact

- Terms Of Use

-

-

Hear
this post