Monthly Archives: July 2011

Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex — [VIDEO]

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PredictWise — [LINK]

A blog on market-generated predictions: PredictWise aggregates, analyzes, and creates predictions on politics, sports, finance, and entertainment. We created PredictWise because we thought it would be interesting and informative for people to better understand the likelihood of certain major events … Continue reading

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Socially valuable betting (based on accountable predictions) has long been legal in America, professor Hanson. — [AWARENESS]

Robin Hanson: A track record tech must be combined with a social equilibrium that punishes those with poor records, and thus encourages rivals and victims to collect and report records. The lesson I take for forecast accuracy is that it … Continue reading

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‘For Liberty’, the Ron Paul film — [VIDEO]

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InTrade prediction markets on US debt ceiling — [CHARTS]

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Ron Paul: “Is gold money?” –> Ben Bernanke: “No. It’s precious metal. It’s an asset.” –> Ron Paul: “Why do central banks hold it?” –> Ben Bernanke: “Long-term tradition.” — [VIDEO]

Is gold money?

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After years of pretending being a prediction market consultant, Robin Hanson finally confesses nobody has ever cared about his stuff. — [LINK]

The Emperor of enterprise prediction markets is naked. Robin Hanson: I can confirm that this disinterest is real. For example, when I try to sell firms on internal prediction markets wherein employees forecast things like sales and project completion dates, … Continue reading

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Matt Taibbi vs. Goldman Sachs — [VIDEO]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WS0rpNHzT0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tibn5IO0I-A

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Our dwindling food variety — [CHART]

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That’s a tough one… How would you have answered? — [POLL]

UPDATE: The poll result.

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