Monthly Archives: May 2011

The Great Ephemeralization — [LINK]

Review of Tyler Cowen’s The Great Stagnation. Feel free to comment below.

Posted in Inventions & Innovations, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Thomas Malone gives a bad name to collective intelligence. — [RANT]

Thomas Malone is a smart man, and his institution is a great idea. But I can’t stand that: Solving Climate Change with CrowdSourcing I am fed up with the academics who are overselling the wisdom of crowds. Enough already.

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds | Tagged , , , , | 1 Comment

InTrade was not able to predict the elimination of Osama Bin Laden. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

I already blogged about the big fail of the prediction markets. Here’s more from the NYT, Eddy Elfenbein, and Barry Ritholtz.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

British electors don’t want to change their electoral system. — [PREDICTION MARKET]

Question asked on May 5, 2011 (United Kingdom Alternative Vote referendum): At present, the UK uses the “first past the post” system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Should the “alternative vote” system be used instead? Here’s BetFair’s … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Genesis, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Politics, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The global environment mantra is the elites’s brand-new tool to alienate the people. — [VIDEO]

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The Bridge To No-Where — [PICTURE]

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Apple will eventually be worth more than $1 trillion ($1,000 per share). — [VIDEO]

James Altucher of Formula Capital. [Download this post to watch the video, if your feed reader does not show it to you.]

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Andrea Rossi’s cheap nuclear energy generator — [VIDEO]

CANR-LENR (cold fusion) = 1 cent per kWh. Tested. ADDENDUM:

Posted in Inventions & Innovations, Research, Science | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media — [PAPER]

An Analysis of the Accuracy of Forecasts in the Political Media – PDF file.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Forecasting (Science & Practice), Journalism, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

We were lied to, of course. — [LINK]

In war times, governments always lie to their people. – a senior White House official said Bin Laden was not armed when he was killed [...] – it did not appear that any woman was used as a human shield … Continue reading

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