Monthly Archives: April 2011

Should the Goldman Sachs people be sent behind bars? — [VIDEO]

Posted on April 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse
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Did the prediction market industry fail because of the lack of usability of the prediction markets? — [REBUTTAL]

Posted on April 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

David Pennock: I like an analogy of Playstation versus Wii. Just like Wii opened up video gaming to a mass audience including women, I think there’s room for simpler/friendlier sites like smarkets that can open up gambling to a much … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Industry), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Regulators will become co-opted by a conflict of interest … AND/OR … Regulators are ignorant of the institutions they are charged with controlling. — [VIDEO]

Posted on April 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

You choose. Larry Summers: Via HP.

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Why you should stay away from Android — [VIDEO]

Posted on April 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

–> As Apple rises, Google goes down because of the rise of the app model. –> Android is rotten to the core. Via BI.

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CIA now know InTrade’s prediction markets were not useful in assessing Fukushima. — [SCREENSHOT]

Posted on April 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] –> See Jason Ruspini’s comment, by the way.

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David Pennock on the state of the prediction market industry — [LINK]

Posted on April 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Prediction markets offer: Accountability Meritocracy A marketplace to reward information release Real-time updates Accuracy Increasing ease of use, as the technology matures and diffuses Self funding

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SecondMarket and SharesPost — [LINK]

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Felix Salmon has two great posts, plus a video (at Kauffman). Good read.

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Media Predict Real-Money — [LINK]

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Media Predict Real-Money

Posted in Betting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , | Leave a comment

The difference between making sense of things and predicting things is where we run into trouble. — [LINK]

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Duncan Watts. Via mister Pennock.

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InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted on April 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Contra to Robin Hanson, Justin Wolfers and James Surowiecki (who all have exaggerated the usefulness of the prediction markets), collective forecasting is not a tool we can rely on for just anything. As I wrote in the past, we need … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment