Monthly Archives: March 2011

Justin Wolfers and his wife — [RANT AGAINST FEMINIZATION]

Posted on March 13, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

He has no freedom to buy. His wife manages his money. Subtitle: Voluntary castration, Wife as new mom. The feminization of the society is a great scourge. [E-mail me to direct me to English-speaking thinkers of feminization, so I can … Continue reading →

Posted in Money, Politics, Psychology | Tagged Alain Soral, Betsey Stevenson, boys, Eric Zemmour, feminism, feminization, girls, Justin Wolfers, men, society, women | Leave a comment

Idiots believe in earthquake prediction markets. — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on March 12, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

That’s how you spot them: They would believe in anything. [*] There can’t be any usefulness in earthquake prediction markets since science does not give us any leading indicators. (Assessing the risk of a nuclear plant melting is another issue.) … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, earthquake, event derivative markets, event derivatives, forecasts, Japan, prediction markets, Predictions, quakes | Leave a comment

Prediction market stability makes prices informative, while prediction market instability generates liquidity. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Andrew Gelman finds Rajiv Sethi’s remarks interesting: Markets are impressive mechanisms for information aggregation but they’re not magic. The information has to come from somewhere, and markets are inherently always living in the phase transition between stability and instability. (It … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, information, instability, InTrade, liquidity, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, prices, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi, stability | Leave a comment

100% Pure Cockiness — [EVIDENCE]

Posted on March 11, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

The Good Judgment: Prediction markets can harness the ‘wisdom of crowds’ to solve problems, develop products, [*] and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown and … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Exchanges & Markets, Research | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions | 2 Comments

What’s up with Emile Servan-Schreiber? — [LINK]

Posted on March 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

At Lumenogic (ex-NewsFutures), he practices “InnerViews“. Cool.

Posted in Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Journalism | Tagged Collective Intelligence, Emile Servan-Schreiber, InnerView, interviews, Journalism, Lumenogic, NewsFutures, wisdom of crowds | Leave a comment

PAUL GRAHAM ON THE APPLE MONOPOLY: “Doesn’t Steve Jobs see that he’s the mean dictator in that old Apple ad?” — [REBUTTAL]

Posted on March 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Then, why Paul Graham doesn’t start up a competitor of Apple? Would make tons of money, since consumers hate the so-called Apple monopoly, right? ANSWER: Because Steve Jobs took the right decisions. Plus, those who hate iOS devices can still … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Inventions & Innovations | Tagged Apple, Apple iOS, Apple IPad, Apple iPhone, Apple iPod Touch, Information Technology, innovation, innovations, inventions, iOS, iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch, operating systems, Paul Graham, post-PC devices, Steve Jobs | Leave a comment

iOS devices (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch) will never allow scripts. — [PREDICTION]

Posted on March 10, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Brian Chen is so wrong. If you allow scripts, you enable spammers and scammers. Steve Jobs does not want that on his post-PC devices. He is so right. Keep in mind that the next generation of smartphones will have RFID-NFC … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology, Inventions & Innovations, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged Apple, Apple iOS, Apple IPad, Apple iPhone, Apple iPod Touch, Information Technology, innovation, innovations, inventions, iOS, iPad, iPhone, iPod Touch, operating systems, post-PC devices, Steve Jobs | Leave a comment

Paul Graham: Startups use technology to make technology. — [VIDEO]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Bloomberg TV.

Posted in Business, Entrepreneurship, Finance | Tagged business business startups, entrepreneurs, Entrepreneurship, Finance, funding, Paul Graham, startup funding, startups | Leave a comment

Research on how people use the knowledge they have to develop expectations about the future and what sorts or processes and strategies lead to success — [STUDY]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Philip E. Tetlock et al.: Prediction markets can harness the “wisdom of crowds” to solve problems, develop products, and make forecasts. These systems typically treat collective intelligence as a commodity to be mined, not a resource that can be grown … Continue reading →

Posted in Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Psychology, Research | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, experts, forecasting, forecasts, Justin Wolfers, Philip E. Tetlock, Philip Tetlock, predicting, prediction markets, Predictions | 4 Comments

Rajiv Sethi responds to Jason Ruspini. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 9, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi: I don’t see a huge problem with what Nate did either (especially since he added the caveat that he disagreed with some of the imputed beliefs). My point was just that there a lot more interesting information in … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, Nate Silver, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | 2 Comments

Monthly Archives: March 2011

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