Monthly Archives: March 2011

PREDICTALOT IS THE LARGEST PREDICTION EXCHANGE CREATED BY NUMBER OF OUTCOMES (9.2 QUINTILLION). — [LINK]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

http://predictalot.yahoo.com/ Predictalot on FaceBook. David Pennock: I believe it’s the largest prediction market created by number of outcomes (9.2 quintillion). We’re approximating a #P-hard problem to get the odds. More here. I believe v0.3 is faster and easier to use … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Mechanism Designs | Tagged bets, Betting, betting exchanges, betting markets, David Pennock, derivative exchanges, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, event derivatives, exchanges, FaceBook, futures exchanges, March Madness, play-money betting markets, play-money prediction markets, Predictalot, prediction exchanges, prediction markets, Yahoo! | Leave a comment

Is there really something “racist” in this rant? — [VIDEO]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Posted in Ethics, Politics | Tagged Americans, Asians, girl, library, political correctness, US politics | Leave a comment

The IAEA to upgrade Fukushima to a Level 5 accident before midnight ET 31 Mar 2011 — [PREDICTION MARKET CHART]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

UPDATE: Upgrade to Level 6, here. Next: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM] NEXT: InTrade was not able to predict anything regarding the Fukushima nuclear energy plant. — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Post-Mortem | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, earthquake, event derivative markets, event derivatives, Fukushima, IAEA, International Atomic Energy Agency, InTrade, Japan, prediction markets, tsunami | Leave a comment

Watch the English-speaking NHK for the latest on the Japanese nuclear disaster. — [VIDEO]

Posted on March 15, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

NHK WORLD TV live on USTREAM.

Posted in News | Tagged Info, information, Japan, Japanese news, News, NHK, NHK WORLD TV, USTREAM | Leave a comment

Prediction markets are indeed worth studying seriously not only because they are complex and interesting mechanisms for information aggregation, but also because the simplicity of the contracts traded can allow strong inferences to be made about the behavior of market participants. — [ANALYSIS]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Rajiv Sethi, The Return. – From Order Books to Belief Distributions.

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged bets, Betting, betting markets, event derivative markets, event derivatives, InTrade, odds, prediction markets, probabilities, Rajiv Sethi | Leave a comment

Markets can be designed to protect Mother Nature. — [VIDEO]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

How the market can keep streams flowing: More.

Posted in Business, Politics, The Global Economy | Tagged agriculture, beer, creeks, markets, rivers, Rob Harmon, streams, water, water restoration, water use | Leave a comment

Are you more truthful when you are anonymous? — [VIDEO]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

Christopher Poole: Anonymity allows users to reveal themselves in a “completely unvarnished, unfiltered, raw way”. Yes, but the social constraints of real-ID public expression help us to behave ethically and correctly. Anonymity should be the exception, not the rule.

Posted in Ethics, Psychology, The Internet | Tagged anonymity, Anonymous, Christopher Poole, Ethics, expression, FaceBook, Freedom, identity, liberty, Mark Suckerberg, persistent identity, privacy, publication, real identity, speech, The Anonymous, The Internet | Leave a comment

Inside the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with Dominique Strauss-Kahn (“DSK”) — [VIDEO]

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Chris F. Masse

In French, but with some English: Extraits du documentaire “Un an avec DSK” from Iker Zabalzagarai & Vianney Cier on Vimeo. Canal +: Un an avec DSK, au coeur du FMI.