That’s how you spot them: They would believe in anything. [*]
There can’t be any usefulness in earthquake prediction markets since science does not give us any leading indicators. (Assessing the risk of a nuclear plant melting is another issue.)
As for InTrade, what’s the point of floating a single magnitude-9 Richter-scale contract [**], an extremely rare event? Again, not useful.
[**] The second comment from “mkg” suggests yet another contract statement problem.
Previously: InTrade’s Brand-New Rules for Departure Markets — [MARKET CONTRACT STATEMENTS]
[*] John Stossel mentioned (in passing) the InTrade prediction markets on earthquakes in 2008:
Next: The Japanese professor who predicted the nuclear disaster — [PREDICTION POST-MORTEM]
