Monthly Archives: March 2010

Dear MO reader: Why you should try Predictalot

Why should you try Predictalot? Gamers: Make almost any prediction you can think of about March Madness, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament. Sports fans: Check the crowd’s odds: Is St. Mary’s the next Cinderella? Economists: Play with a true combinatorial … Continue reading

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Betting, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Economics, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Inventions & Innovations, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs, Research, Software, Sports | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why does the CFTC allow the Cantor Exchange and not InTrade?

Joe Weisenthal has a small opinion piece on why the CFTC allows real-money prediction markets on movie business, and bans those on politics or sports. The problem in the piece is that Joe is 100% wrong. Joe says that there … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Exchanges & Markets, Hedging & Insurance, Politics, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Predictalot is a combinatorial prediction exchange.

“Predictalot is what is called a combinatorial prediction market.“

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Michael Lewis on CBS 60 Minutes: How the capitalism was almost destroyed by the capitalists in the fall of 2008 – [VIDEO]

Download this post to watch the video embedded below —if your feed reader does not show it to you. Watch CBS News Videos Online Part 2: Watch CBS News Videos Online Felix Salmon review of Michael Lewis’s book, “The Big … Continue reading

Posted in Finance, Financial Markets, History, The Global Economy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Peter Schiff on CNBC Fast Money – [VIDEO]

March 9, 2010 Ron Paul – March 11, 2010 Jim Rogers:

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Truth in Advertising – Meet Prediction Markets

Most published papers on prediction markets (there aren’t many) paint a wildly rosy picture of their accuracy. Perhaps it is because many of these papers are written by researchers having affiliations with prediction market vendors. Robin Hanson is Chief Scientist … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , | Leave a comment

Why you should *never* trust David Pennock when he brags about the accuracy of his predictions

He cherry-picks positive outcomes in hindsight, and he measures probabilistic predictions categorically and in isolation. Don’t be fooled by any “research scientist”.

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Economics, Humor, Prediction Post-Mortem, Science | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

CrowdPark = collective forecasting in German

http://www.crowdpark.de/ Everything is explained in German on their blog. Sounds cool. It would be interesting to have an English version.

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In light of the upcoming “bursting” of the Cantor Exchange, Max Keiser have regrets about creating the Hollywood Stock Exchange.

Max Keiser: Joe Weisenthal drinks the Kool-Aide http://www.businessinsider.com/how-the-cantor-exchange-movie-trading-platform-works-2010-3 The CFTC really should be called to account for launching something like this – while the fire is still burning on the various CFTC approved products/contracts responsible for the last two years … Continue reading

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Finance | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Max Keiser claims to have predicted the Lehman Brothers creative accounting thing.

MAX KEISER FOR PRESIDENT…!!!…

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