Monthly Archives: March 2010

The stock market is stochastic.

Posted on March 18, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Randomness is predictable.

Posted in Analysis (Data), Finance, Financial Markets | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

BRITISH CRETINERY: The Financial Times features the InTrade probabilities —not the BetFair ones.

Posted on March 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

This is really stupid. The decerebrated journalos at the FT chose to feature the illiquid, Ireland-based, un-regulated InTrade prediction markets instead of the very liquid, UK-based, regulated BetFair prediction markets on the next British congress. Makes no sense at all. … Continue reading →

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchange Liquidity, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Bookmaker laying a la BetFair

Posted on March 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

At Ladbrokes, you can now bet on an anti event —so to speak. Via Mark Davies —who rejoices.

Posted in Betting | Tagged , , , | Leave a comment

BetFair App for the iPhone and the iPad –> BetFair Rattle

Posted on March 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

As I understand it, BetFair has one iPhone App for the British bettors (only). And they’ve just released a new one (BetFair Rattle), also only for the UK Apple App Store. BetFair: BETFAIR LAUNCHES FREE IPHONE APP FOR FOOTBALL FANS … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

“InTrade should address this incident and suspend the account of whoever did this.”

Posted on March 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Dixit Jason Ruspini.

Posted in Ethics, Exchange & Market Management, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

OBAMACARE PREDICTION MARKET WAS BRIEFLY MANIPULATED YESTERDAY EVENING SO IT WOULD ARTIFICIALLY CLOSE AT $35. – [CHART]

Posted on March 17, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

IT IS NOW BACK TO ABOVE $60. See Jason Ruspini’s comment. UPDATE: Carlos Graterol. Joe Weisenthal. Gawker. Max Keiser. ADDENDUM More info on health care reform on Memeorandum and Politico.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 11 Comments

We interrupt this report to bring you some Jazz.

Posted on March 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Herbie Hancock – Cantelope Island Herbie Hancock – Watermelon Man

Posted in Music | Tagged , , , , | 2 Comments

Max Keiser weighs in on potential insider trading and hypothetical manipulation in the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade.

Posted on March 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Max says that the political prediction markets are “routinely manipulated” and we often see “price rigging”… 9:57 into: Previously: What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Market Efficiency), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

What has been the best InTrade prediction market ever? Has the ObamaCare prediction market at InTrade been “ahead of the commentary”?

Posted on March 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Jason Ruspini (who feels that the health care reform proposal might well be adopted) wanna feedback from you, folks. Which InTrade prediction market(s) has/have been ahead of the Press (rather than the other way around)? What is/are the best (most … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Collective Forecasting, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments

CrowdCast + SAP

Posted on March 16, 2010 by Chris F. Masse

Business Objects + Prediction Markets

Posted in Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Management, Software | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment