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Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)
This entry was posted in Exchange & Market Designs, Exchange Genesis, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs and tagged betting exchanges, betting markets, combinatorial prediction markets, event derivative exchanges, event derivative markets, Predictalot, prediction exchanges, prediction markets. Bookmark the permalink.
One Response to Predictalot = combinatorial prediction markets (a la Robin Hanson)
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Thanks to David Pennock, I’ve got a lot of reading to do! The logic is sound and the method of estimating odds is innovative. A pretty impressive application, to say the least. Unfortunately, I wasn’t able to place a bet on the site (the button to accept the bet was not operational)!
I’ve always thought that combinatorial betting is Robin Hanson’s best idea. Though this application is more of a game than anything else, it will be very interesting to analyze the betting behaviour, given the multitude of possible bets. I suspect most combinations will be akin to lottery tickets, reflecting little, if any, information.
It is a shame that David Pennock’s blog post, about a year ago, on the topic of combinatorial prediction markets, received all of one comment (to which he replied).
I’ll keep you posted.
Paul