Monthly Archives: December 2009

Nathan Myhrvold on geo-engineering to combat global warming

Great interview on CNN — video. He also talks about “investing in inventions”.

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Forecasting the US economy for 2010 and 2011

Economic forecasting for 2010 and 2011

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YouBet video tutorial for betting on US horse racing over the Internet

YouBet has processed more than $2 billion in wagers (legally) since 1998.

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Common pitfalls of enterprise prediction markets: participants who lack relevant information, too few participants, and too little trading.

GOAL: “Prediction markets seek information aggregation from a large group of diverse individuals by encouraging active participation.“ REALITY CHECK: “The biggest challenge is getting people in the company to be active” [].

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Stocks have underperformed gold. Why?

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Yahoo! Finance vertical search

Yahoo! Finance vertical search

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Predicting the direction of the Market

Just bought Wall Street Rolling at 10287; will close position just before the close of business on X-Mas Eve – confidently banking profit.

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Finance, Financial Markets | Tagged , , , , | 5 Comments

Implementing a prediction market within a company means changing the way information flows by widening the people in the know and accepting to be occasionally second-guessed by the market.

“Some corporate cultures aren’t ready to accept that yet.”

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The Climate Gate scandal highlights the modus operandi of the academic mafia.

Required reading this Friday: – How to Manufacture a Climate Consensus – About expelling the non-believers from the academic journals publishing on climate science – The Dog Ate Global Warming – About the destruction of raw temperature data of Planet … Continue reading

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The Prediction Market Journal is dead.

Or so it seems. It was a third-tier journal, run by a bunch of people who exaggerated the predictive power of the prediction markets —and read by nobody other than those who published in it. It had to die. Midas … Continue reading

Posted in Prediction Journalism, Research | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments