If you don’t get that, you have nothing to do in the prediction market industry.
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Certainly, the smartphone market size is impressive, but so is that of the desktop market. If prediction markets didn’t “take” with over 1 Billion desktop users, what makes you think 10 Billion will do the trick?
However, I do believe you are right that this is the direction prediction markets need to go (at least for the public ones). It is probably the only way to make any money in this game. While there may be some benefits to the users of the predictions, the real money will be in marketing to the predictors. If the game is interesting enough, they will come, at least for a while. If they come, marketers will pay to “talk” to them.
Enterprise prediction markets do not need this level of exposure. Presently, they have a hard enough time attracting a few hundred (or thousand) traders, and they don’t have to trade continuously to be effective.
Rather than using mobile phones, I think netbooks will be more prominent in this application. Perhaps you should ask Andrew McAfee.