How the prediction market industry lied to the media (and the public, *YOU*) about Hewlett-Packard’s pilot tests regarding enterprise prediction markets

Paul Hewitt on the Hewlett-Packard (HP) prediction markets:

Another tried-and-true method is to repeat a statement over-and-over until it becomes a “fact”. The best example of this, regarding prediction markets, is the claim that they are “proven” by virtue of HP’s remarkably lop-sided, unmistakable, trouncing of internal forecasts by a score of 6 – 2. It is usually cited as “6 out of 8″ or 75% better than the official forecasts. The “truth” is that the “wins” were by minuscule margins and many of the forecasts were equally bad. [...]

Read the rest, here.

External Link: Paul Hewitt’s blog on prediction markets