Comments on: Prediction markets, given enough active participation, are increasingly seen as an excellent way to arrive at the answers to any number of questions. http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/11/19/prediction-markets-singularity-university/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/11/19/prediction-markets-singularity-university/#comment-27448 Paul Hewitt Tue, 24 Nov 2009 23:44:49 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=19354#comment-27448 Here's an updated post on this topic on my blog: http://torontopm.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/idea-pageants-prediction-markets/ It seems to me that the hype surrounding prediction markets is getting worse. Now there are numerous blogs all quoting the Chicago conference session about this idea pageant. All of the blogs are calling this the second coming of PMs (well, almost). Corporate decision-makers must continue to be very wary of these types of claims. Academics need to spend more time researching PMs than hyping them. I'll have more to say soon. Paul Here’s an updated post on this topic on my blog:
http://torontopm.wordpress.com/2009/11/24/idea-pageants-prediction-markets/

It seems to me that the hype surrounding prediction markets is getting worse. Now there are numerous blogs all quoting the Chicago conference session about this idea pageant. All of the blogs are calling this the second coming of PMs (well, almost).

Corporate decision-makers must continue to be very wary of these types of claims. Academics need to spend more time researching PMs than hyping them.

I’ll have more to say soon.

Paul

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/11/19/prediction-markets-singularity-university/#comment-27428 Chris F. Masse Fri, 20 Nov 2009 20:07:28 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=19354#comment-27428 Paul, Take a look at this take: http://blog.crowdcast.com/?p=111 Paul,

Take a look at this take:
http://blog.crowdcast.com/?p=111

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/11/19/prediction-markets-singularity-university/#comment-27419 Chris F. Masse Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:29:06 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=19354#comment-27419 Cool. Cool.

]]> By: Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/11/19/prediction-markets-singularity-university/#comment-27418 Paul Hewitt Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:20:18 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=19354#comment-27418 I was just kidding! I was just kidding!

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/11/19/prediction-markets-singularity-university/#comment-27417 Chris F. Masse Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:04:29 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=19354#comment-27417 Paul, I just linked to that story. Thanks for the analysis. Paul,

I just linked to that story.

Thanks for the analysis.

]]> By: Paul Hewitt http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/11/19/prediction-markets-singularity-university/#comment-27416 Paul Hewitt Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:08:27 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=19354#comment-27416 Chris, are you jumping on the prediction market bandwagon (at long last)? I didn't think so, but I'm curious as to why you would parrot such a naive perspective on prediction markets. Prediction markets are not "excellent" ways to answer "any number" of questions. Their prediction range is much more limited than the author states. Furthermore, using an "idea pageant" that was "accurate" to support the claim that prediction markets are an excellent way to forecast the future is quite a stretch. The problem with the example cited is that it is not a true prediction market. Yes, it uses the same mechanism, but it is not a prediction market. A PM attempts to predict an independently generated or occurring outcome. In this case, the market, itself, generated the outcome or someone decided which of the market selections was to receive "faux" venture capital support. Sounds a lot like the Olympic site selection PMs, which were completely wrong. I suspect that most of the EPM adoption cited by McKinsey (8%!) involves similar, "idea pageant" types of markets. I agree that these markets are a form, and a useful one at that, of collective intelligence, but they are not prediction markets and should not be used as proof that PMs work. Should we be expecting a Midas Oracle Conference on Prediction Markets in the near future? Of course I'm joking! Chris, are you jumping on the prediction market bandwagon (at long last)? I didn’t think so, but I’m curious as to why you would parrot such a naive perspective on prediction markets.

Prediction markets are not “excellent” ways to answer “any number” of questions. Their prediction range is much more limited than the author states. Furthermore, using an “idea pageant” that was “accurate” to support the claim that prediction markets are an excellent way to forecast the future is quite a stretch.

The problem with the example cited is that it is not a true prediction market. Yes, it uses the same mechanism, but it is not a prediction market. A PM attempts to predict an independently generated or occurring outcome. In this case, the market, itself, generated the outcome or someone decided which of the market selections was to receive “faux” venture capital support. Sounds a lot like the Olympic site selection PMs, which were completely wrong.

I suspect that most of the EPM adoption cited by McKinsey (8%!) involves similar, “idea pageant” types of markets. I agree that these markets are a form, and a useful one at that, of collective intelligence, but they are not prediction markets and should not be used as proof that PMs work.

Should we be expecting a Midas Oracle Conference on Prediction Markets in the near future? Of course I’m joking!

]]>