Nate Silver’s prediction (November 2, 2009): “I’d make Christie about the 4:3 favorite.”
[ UPDATE: Nate Silver's prediction post-mortem on the 2009 US elections.]
You can see that days before Elections 2009, InTrade was too heavy on Corzine:
2009 New Jersey Gubernatorial Race: Was Nate Silver’s prediction more accurate than InTrade’s?