Comments on: Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/03/assessing-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/03/assessing-prediction-markets/#comment-27307 Chris F. Masse Tue, 06 Oct 2009 16:26:06 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=17602#comment-27307 Paul Hewitt has the best analysis: http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/06/olympics-chicago-paul-hewitt/ http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/06/17849/#comment-27306 Paul Hewitt has the best analysis:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/06/olympics-chicago-paul-hewitt/
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/06/17849/#comment-27306

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/03/assessing-prediction-markets/#comment-27282 Michael Giberson Mon, 05 Oct 2009 13:03:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=17602#comment-27282 See my <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/05/chicago-olympics-2/#comment-27281" rel="nofollow">related comment</a> in a later post. See my related comment in a later post.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/03/assessing-prediction-markets/#comment-27257 Chris F. Masse Sun, 04 Oct 2009 17:04:42 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=17602#comment-27257 "If IOC decisions are based on publicly observable merits" They are not. Paris was the best dossier (according to the media), last time, and London got the games. "Even if IOC decisions were based exclusively on privately-known, corrupt reasons, I don’t see why in principle bettors couldn’t identify the likely winner of this kind of process." Well, you are wrong. The mass media are not able to inform their audience about the intricacies of the IOC decisions. And some factoids get to be known *after* the IOC vote. QUOTE In surprisingly frank terms, a number of influential people in American Olympic sports questioned the performance of the U.S.O.C.’s new management team and said its two top executives were ill-equipped to navigate the insular world of international sports. UNQUOTE http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/sports/04usoc.html “If IOC decisions are based on publicly observable merits”

They are not. Paris was the best dossier (according to the media), last time, and London got the games.

“Even if IOC decisions were based exclusively on privately-known, corrupt reasons, I don’t see why in principle bettors couldn’t identify the likely winner of this kind of process.”

Well, you are wrong. The mass media are not able to inform their audience about the intricacies of the IOC decisions. And some factoids get to be known *after* the IOC vote.

QUOTE
In surprisingly frank terms, a number of influential people in American Olympic sports questioned the performance of the U.S.O.C.’s new management team and said its two top executives were ill-equipped to navigate the insular world of international sports.
UNQUOTE
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/04/sports/04usoc.html

]]> By: Michael Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/10/03/assessing-prediction-markets/#comment-27256 Michael Giberson Sun, 04 Oct 2009 13:20:19 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=17602#comment-27256 I'm not sure that the lack of leaked information from the IOC is the right issue to focus upon. The question is whether IOC decisions can be forecasted based on information that *is* available. *If IOC decisions are based on publicly observable merits, then prediction market bettors should be able to make reasoned bets based on the publicly observable information. *Even if IOC decisions were based exclusively on privately-known, corrupt reasons, I don't see why in principle bettors couldn't identify the likely winner of this kind of process. Yes Olympic-venue prediction markets don't have a good track record, but I don't think the reason is the "small, secretive committee" nature of the process. I’m not sure that the lack of leaked information from the IOC is the right issue to focus upon. The question is whether IOC decisions can be forecasted based on information that *is* available.

*If IOC decisions are based on publicly observable merits, then prediction market bettors should be able to make reasoned bets based on the publicly observable information.
*Even if IOC decisions were based exclusively on privately-known, corrupt reasons, I don’t see why in principle bettors couldn’t identify the likely winner of this kind of process.

Yes Olympic-venue prediction markets don’t have a good track record, but I don’t think the reason is the “small, secretive committee” nature of the process.

]]>