Monthly Archives: September 2009

Based on what metric, exactly?

Posted on September 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

… asks our good doctor Emile Servan-Schreiber of NewsFutures, on the San Francisco clown’s e-mailing list. The answer is simple: The San Francisco clown (who hides behind the e-mail account of that young lady) will say anything for money. Whoever … Continue reading →

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Do Jedis like prediction markets?

Posted on September 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I have just changed my religious affiliation on FaceBook. Now, it says, “Jediism”. Sounds fun. May the Force be with you. Chris Masse @ FaceBook Jediism @ Wikipedia Jedis @ Wikipedia

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Can a Keynesian beauty contest improve Pres. Obama’s suggestion box for U.S government employees?

Posted on September 24, 2009 by Michael Giberson

President Barack Obama has created the “SAVE Award,” a process by which U.S. government employees can submit ideas for “how their agency can save money and perform better.” A committee of senior officials from the Office of Management and Budget … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, All Guest Authors's Posts, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Politics | Tagged , , , , , , | 18 Comments

Global Warming Exchange update

Posted on September 24, 2009 by Caveat Bettor

up at Caveat Bettor.  An excerpt: For the first 8 months of the year, the index has averaged 0.52 Celsius over baseline, slightly warmer than 2008′s 0.44 Celsius, but still trending lower since the peak of 0.62 in 2005. Temperatures … Continue reading →

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Market Prices & Probabilities, Predictions - Forecasts | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

In tricky cases, shouldn’t prediction exchanges void all bets and refund the money {including THE TRANSACTION FEES} to all bettors?

Posted on September 24, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Check the comments made on our previous post.

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Barack Obama and the wisdom of the Federal crowd

Posted on September 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“There is no aggregation of the collective wisdom. The crowd is called on only to submit ideas, not to help evaluate them, which is the critical step in the delicate wisdom of crowd recipe.”

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In tricky cases, shouldn’t prediction exchanges void all bets and refund all bettors?

Posted on September 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

BetFair in Prediction Market Settlement Row With Simon Cawkwell Event derivative trader set to continue with BetFair legal battle [Simon Cawkwell] stood to lose £6,342 if the market was settled with Quinn getting the job, but would collect £29,983 if … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

Anish Kapoor at London’s Royal Academy of Arts

Posted on September 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse
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The end of the nuclear taboo

Posted on September 23, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Nuclear Power? Yes. Please. Their blog. The Independent article that started it all. If you understand either French or German, you can watch a documentary film broadcast on Arte (“Arte + 7″), “Nuclear, the end of a taboo?”. I am … Continue reading →

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Are BetFair wasting their time with Right2Bet?

Posted on September 22, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

One commenter: A case of throwing good money after bad. Ever since the European Court of Justice’s judgement in Placanica, the European betting companies have poured good money down the drain, attempting to lobby the European Commission ( I will … Continue reading →

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