Monthly Archives: September 2009

BetFair on Twitter

Posted on September 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

- BetFair Predicts @ Twitter – BetFair News @ Twitter – BetFair Canada @ Twitter – Mike Robb @ Twitter – Michael Owen @ Twitter – Pete Nordsted @ Twitter – ??? – ??? – ???

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Resources - References | Tagged BetFair, BetFair News, BetFair Predicts, tweets, Twitter | Leave a comment

Can we really assess InTrade’s very short prediction market on Van Jones?

Posted on September 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Carlos Graterol has a partial analysis on the Van Jones prediction market at InTrade. Basically, Carlos Graterol (an InTrade fanboy) says that InTrade should be credited for the accurate prediction. Carlos Graterol should publish what the politicians and editorialists were … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, Predictions, Van Jones | Leave a comment

There is a lack of research papers analyzing statistical properties of prediction market prices.

Posted on September 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Computer scientists are mainly focused on predictive modelling.

Posted on September 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

“As long as the system can ‘predict’ the outcome on unseen data, things are ok. A black box with perfect predictive performance is great. Explanatory models are rarely the focus.”

Posted in Economics, Forecasting (Science & Practice), Research, Science | Tagged causal models, causality, computer scientists, economists, forecasting, models, n predictive modelling | Leave a comment

Hydroptere = a foiling trimaran = the fastest sailboat in the world — And it’s French.

Posted on September 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

l’HydroptÃ¨re @ Wikipedia – lâ€™HydroptÃ¨re sets new record for the 500 and 1000nm. – Lâ€™HydroptÃ¨re breaks the 50 knots barrier. The foiler announces 100 km/h as top speed in the South of France. “A performance realized under the control of … Continue reading →

Posted in Inventions & Innovations | Tagged Hydroptere, record, sailboat, trimaran, yatch | Leave a comment

Running WordPress.org on your own servers is a lot harder than just having them hosted {for free} on WordPress.com.

Posted on September 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

That was the hard lesson that life taught to our good doctor David Pennock. And now, it’s Robert Scobble’s turn —some hackers deleted 2 months of his blog. – How to keep your WordPress blog secure – For your information, … Continue reading →

Posted in Information Technology | Tagged blogging, hackers, hacking, malware, Open Media, Robert Scobble, WordPress, WordPress.com, WordPress.org | Leave a comment

Predicting (well in advance) the Van Jones departure –> Epic FAIL

Posted on September 6, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

HubDub [*] failed to predict the resignation of Van Jones [more info]: [*] InTrade has a very young Van Jones contract (230 transactions, only): UPDATE: Carlos Graterol has a partial analysis. He has not surveyed what the well informed D.C. … Continue reading →

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Prices & Probabilities, News, Politics | Tagged Barack Obama, betting markets, event derivative markets, Glenn Beck, HubDub, InTrade, prediction markets, Van Jones | Leave a comment

Intrade’s “Super Quick 8 Question Survey”

Posted on September 5, 2009 by Mike Linksvayer

Intrade is promoting a “Super Quick 8 Question Survey” from their home page. [UPDATE: Results.] My answers:

Posted in All Guest Authors's Posts, Exchanges & Markets, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce | Tagged InTrade, poll | Leave a comment

“Tap The Collective” failed to convince me about the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets.

Posted on September 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

I don’t see any compelling argument in favor of enterprise prediction markets, so far. – Robin Hanson: Prediction markets were designed exactly these sort of hard problems – contributors know they face a risk of losing as well as gaining … Continue reading →

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Analysis (Meta), Business, Cases, Collective Decision Making, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence - Wisdom Of Crowds, Consulting, Exchanges & Markets | Tagged accuracy, Adam Siegel, betting markets, Business, Collective Forecasting, Collective Intelligence, corporate prediction markets, enterprise prediction markets, event derivative markets, inkling markets, internal prediction markets, Melody Hildebrandt, prediction markets, private prediction markets, Robin Hanson, Tap The Collective | 5 Comments

Wanna know more about Panos Ipeirotis’s paper on prediction markets of prediction markets?

Posted on September 5, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

His co-author is here, telling his side of the story. #2. There is indeed a lack of high quality statistical research on prediction markets. I have seen published papers doing terrible things like regressing prices from one prediction market on … Continue reading →

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Data), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged Panos Ipeirotis, prediction markets, prediction markets of prediction markets | 7 Comments

Monthly Archives: September 2009

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