Comments on: “Wisdom of crowds” in popular culture, again http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/29/wisdom-of-crowds-in-popular-culture-again/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Mike Giberson http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/29/wisdom-of-crowds-in-popular-culture-again/#comment-27119 Mike Giberson Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:04:38 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=17501#comment-27119 More interesting mechanisms: If you had a list of N possible diagnoses, you could run independent yes/no prediction markets (more than one possible diagnosis can be correct at the same time). However, there may be interactions between diagnoses such that is one is correct another is more likely or less likely to be correct, and this information may be relevant to the preferred medical treatment. Would the good doctor Hanson prescribe combinatorial prediction markets? More interesting mechanisms:

If you had a list of N possible diagnoses, you could run independent yes/no prediction markets (more than one possible diagnosis can be correct at the same time). However, there may be interactions between diagnoses such that is one is correct another is more likely or less likely to be correct, and this information may be relevant to the preferred medical treatment.

Would the good doctor Hanson prescribe combinatorial prediction markets?

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/29/wisdom-of-crowds-in-popular-culture-again/#comment-27074 Chris F. Masse Tue, 29 Sep 2009 15:22:42 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=17501#comment-27074 "at least the basic “wisdom of crowds” logic illustrated in the episode was correct" What is the mechanism, here? The more people claim the solution is XXX, the more likely that solution is correct? As in "Who wants to be a millionaire?", when they poll people in the room where they tap the show. Just as a thought experiment, what would be a more interesting mechanism? Making people bet (real) money on their preferred solution? “at least the basic “wisdom of crowds” logic illustrated in the episode was correct”

What is the mechanism, here? The more people claim the solution is XXX, the more likely that solution is correct? As in “Who wants to be a millionaire?”, when they poll people in the room where they tap the show.

Just as a thought experiment, what would be a more interesting mechanism? Making people bet (real) money on their preferred solution?

]]> By: Hoping Go Pulcho http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/29/wisdom-of-crowds-in-popular-culture-again/#comment-27080 Hoping Go Pulcho Tue, 29 Sep 2009 14:41:28 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=17501#comment-27080 So, six years after the publication of the Wisdom of Crowds, the notion creeps into the public mainstream, as a tool of deception and comedy. Says it all, really ..... So, six years after the publication of the Wisdom of Crowds, the notion creeps into the public mainstream, as a tool of deception and comedy. Says it all, really …..

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