Will Chicago get the Olympics? Don’t bet on it. Too risky. — 2016 Summer Olympics in Chicago — 2016 Olympics Predictions

Will Ben Shannon finish in slip? Or will he win at the Olympics lottery? Ben Shannon has taken a big bet on Chicago. Best wishes to him. (We hope he will be more successful than his latest stock market call, where he sold at the bottom.)

Midas Oracle has always been unfavorable to bets on what a close aristocratic group is going to decide. It is impossible to forecast, because there are no leaks —there is no good information to aggregate. Here’s what happened to the Paris 2012 event derivative, baby Shannon:

UPDATE:

Next: Chicago won’t have the Olympics in 2016.

Next: The Chicago candidacy, which was favored by the prediction markets (and gullible bettors like Ben Shannon), is the one that fared the worst.

Next: Why an analyst should assess each newly created prediction market.

- BetFair’s event derivative prices:

- InTrade’s event derivative prices:

- HubDub’s event derivative prices:

Who will recieve the winning bid to host the 2016 Olympics?

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Next: Could we have divined that Chicago was a lemon?

Next: The market participants did not possess a sufficient level of information completeness to arrive at the correct prediction.