Emile’s idea is a half-beauty contest, but if Emile thinks the OMB officials have expertise that won’t be swayed by the crowd, then the original SAVE AWARD process was half-good as well.
The officials would be able to count the number of similar suggestions and in that way they would approximate aggregation. It’s just not as automatic as what Emile imagines.
I don’t know what “half beauty contest” means. It is or it isn’t. This anonymous comment isn’t half stupid, it is totally worthless.
How does that saying about academia go? Things gets vicious because the stakes are so very low? Sometimes I feel the same way about the prediction market sphere! Chris asked me my opinion via email and I responded.
“Half beauty contest” is not necessarily a criticism, and I don’t know why it’s so hard to imagine beauty contests in non-binary terms. Markets commonly move on a combination of fundamentals and momentum/strategic positioning. As everyone who reads this site knows, this should be less common in liquid well-designed prediction markets with an objective settlement, but in your proposition, the participants would have some influence over the settlement. Sure, this influence is not actual control, and therefore the associated gamesmanship is likely so attenuated as to have no material effect — so yes it seems Giberson may have been too fast on the KBC FAIL button.
If I had any criticism, it was that the officials in the current mechanism would in fact be able to gauge the crowd’s aggregate opinion just by counting similar submissions. They could then select the one that was the most detailed and practical. Formal aggregation is more transparent and efficient but also is more likely to have participants’ opinions coalesce around a one-paragraph superficially attractive option. Many things sound nice in politics that neglect the (opportunity) costs and other “significant details.” Even this is not a major criticism. I’m sure you’ve dealt with this sort of issue many times, and of course I agree with the general message of your post, particularly at a time when the FSA head is decrying “socially useless activity.”