Comments on: Do businesses need enterprise prediction markets? http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/ Prediction Markets, etc. Thu, 02 Feb 2012 23:13:18 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/#comment-24598 Chris F. Masse Fri, 11 Sep 2009 08:25:08 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=16993#comment-24598 "You have been played" What if it were Robin Hanson who was "played" here? “You have been played”

What if it were Robin Hanson who was “played” here?

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/#comment-24597 Chris F. Masse Fri, 11 Sep 2009 08:15:33 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=16993#comment-24597 "Not sure what else you want." I think that to convince, EPMs should own a niche. EPMs should show that they solve (for a start) one problem across companies (project management, demand forecasting, whatever), solve that one problem much better than the traditional methods, give good results in any company where EPMs are applied to, and at a reasonable cost compared to the alternatives. All the arguments and lite business cases go in all kind of directions. You do not convince me, so far. You should drill vertically and own a niche. Then you will be convincing. I don't mind someone making a spoof website. People can mock me. (I have re-published the stuff, and Mike Giberson had a good laugh at my expense.) What is problematic is business people taking a fake identity, and then lying about the whole thing. I want to be far away from this kind of people. I want clarity. I have clarity with Emile, Adam, Matt, Leslie, etc. They are people I trust. I never caught them lying. "I told you privately at the time who was behind that and you never responded or asked for my evidence." I never had a conversation with you on that, or received any message from you on that. But if it is the argument that says that a rogue, fired employee did it, I am not convinced. I do e-mails, FaceBook messages, LinkedIn messages, and Twitter messages. I don't do "IM", telepathy, or tables that talk with deceased famous people. http://www.midasoracle.org/contact/ Niall, I don't get what you are talking about ---but maybe that's because I need a cup of coffee. “Not sure what else you want.”

I think that to convince, EPMs should own a niche. EPMs should show that they solve (for a start) one problem across companies (project management, demand forecasting, whatever), solve that one problem much better than the traditional methods, give good results in any company where EPMs are applied to, and at a reasonable cost compared to the alternatives. All the arguments and lite business cases go in all kind of directions. You do not convince me, so far. You should drill vertically and own a niche. Then you will be convincing.

I don’t mind someone making a spoof website. People can mock me. (I have re-published the stuff, and Mike Giberson had a good laugh at my expense.) What is problematic is business people taking a fake identity, and then lying about the whole thing. I want to be far away from this kind of people. I want clarity. I have clarity with Emile, Adam, Matt, Leslie, etc. They are people I trust. I never caught them lying.

“I told you privately at the time who was behind that and you never responded or asked for my evidence.”

I never had a conversation with you on that, or received any message from you on that. But if it is the argument that says that a rogue, fired employee did it, I am not convinced.

I do e-mails, FaceBook messages, LinkedIn messages, and Twitter messages. I don’t do “IM”, telepathy, or tables that talk with deceased famous people.
http://www.midasoracle.org/contact/

Niall, I don’t get what you are talking about —but maybe that’s because I need a cup of coffee.

]]> By: Niall O'Connor http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/#comment-24596 Niall O'Connor Fri, 11 Sep 2009 06:50:17 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=16993#comment-24596 In the interests of investigative journalism should this not be brought into the public domain? In the interests of investigative journalism should this not be brought into the public domain?

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/#comment-24594 Robin Hanson Thu, 10 Sep 2009 12:25:54 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=16993#comment-24594 Chris, you aren't exactly a CEO either, right? We try to encourage companies to collect good data comparing market results to other methods, and to publish and publicize these comparisons. What we can see looks good, but it would of course be great to get more data. Not sure what else you want. So you aren't listing Consensus Point because you think they are "flakey" because you think someone from there was behind the Chris Masse spoof site? I told you privately at the time who was behind that and you never responded or asked for my evidence. I'm not sure exactly what evidence has persuaded you so completely, but I'm pretty sure whatever bit strings you are using as evidence can be faked - there is other more reliable evidence. You have been played, Chris, and you don't seem to care. Chris, you aren’t exactly a CEO either, right? We try to encourage companies to collect good data comparing market results to other methods, and to publish and publicize these comparisons. What we can see looks good, but it would of course be great to get more data. Not sure what else you want.
So you aren’t listing Consensus Point because you think they are “flakey” because you think someone from there was behind the Chris Masse spoof site? I told you privately at the time who was behind that and you never responded or asked for my evidence. I’m not sure exactly what evidence has persuaded you so completely, but I’m pretty sure whatever bit strings you are using as evidence can be faked – there is other more reliable evidence. You have been played, Chris, and you don’t seem to care.

]]> By: Chris F. Masse http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/#comment-24592 Chris F. Masse Thu, 10 Sep 2009 08:21:24 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=16993#comment-24592 I made a valid point. The EPM info is costly, and any CEO's goal is to slash costs. Traditional means (firing a non-performing employee, hiring a better one) is what I think any CEO would do in this case. You are a prof; you don't reason like a CEO. You enjoy complex situations. I think a CEO wants more simplicity. You enjoy EPMs (which you sell); a CEO should reject this complexity. You don't have made the case for EPMs, so far. I blogged many times in the past that you, guys, should demonstrate the specific cases where EPMs make a difference. You have been too lazy to do that. - I answer e-mails with a content, provided I have time. I try to list things in the lists I have, provided I have time. I try to update them once in a while. I don't list people with a behavior I don't like. I don't like people who hide behind a pseudonym or another name. 1. One conference organizer does that. I don't list him, and I don't link to him. (Some "research scientists" share my judgment. And I put it plural.) 2. I was sorry to see that another person in our field used this practice: http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/13/did-the-attacker-try-to-pin-it-on-not-just-one-but-two-prediction-market-software-vendors/ There is no problem in having a verbal fight with me. I don't carry any grudge. However, as I said above, I hate people lying about their identity. I can't stand that. (On top of that, I don't like "flaky" people, as a lot of people have used that adjective to describe that person.) - So, my turn to ask you a question. 1. Why aren't you making more effort to come up with a specific reason about why businesses should use EPMs (as opposed to laughable reasons that any first-year MBA student will debunk within 5 seconds)? 2. Why aren't working with a serious EPM provider, like NewsFutures, CrowdCast, Inkling Markets, or else? "Flaky" is exactly what they are not. P.S.: Spigit should now be added in the list: http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/10/spigit-prediction-markets/ I made a valid point. The EPM info is costly, and any CEO’s goal is to slash costs. Traditional means (firing a non-performing employee, hiring a better one) is what I think any CEO would do in this case.

You are a prof; you don’t reason like a CEO. You enjoy complex situations. I think a CEO wants more simplicity. You enjoy EPMs (which you sell); a CEO should reject this complexity.

You don’t have made the case for EPMs, so far. I blogged many times in the past that you, guys, should demonstrate the specific cases where EPMs make a difference. You have been too lazy to do that.

-

I answer e-mails with a content, provided I have time.

I try to list things in the lists I have, provided I have time. I try to update them once in a while.

I don’t list people with a behavior I don’t like. I don’t like people who hide behind a pseudonym or another name.

1. One conference organizer does that. I don’t list him, and I don’t link to him.

(Some “research scientists” share my judgment. And I put it plural.)

2. I was sorry to see that another person in our field used this practice:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/03/13/did-the-attacker-try-to-pin-it-on-not-just-one-but-two-prediction-market-software-vendors/

There is no problem in having a verbal fight with me. I don’t carry any grudge. However, as I said above, I hate people lying about their identity. I can’t stand that.

(On top of that, I don’t like “flaky” people, as a lot of people have used that adjective to describe that person.)

-

So, my turn to ask you a question.

1. Why aren’t you making more effort to come up with a specific reason about why businesses should use EPMs (as opposed to laughable reasons that any first-year MBA student will debunk within 5 seconds)?

2. Why aren’t working with a serious EPM provider, like NewsFutures, CrowdCast, Inkling Markets, or else? “Flaky” is exactly what they are not.

P.S.: Spigit should now be added in the list:
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/10/spigit-prediction-markets/

]]> By: Robin Hanson http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/#comment-24591 Robin Hanson Thu, 10 Sep 2009 02:19:16 +0000 http://www.midasoracle.org/?p=16993#comment-24591 So you are a bit fan of prediction markets because sometimes they are just barely more accurate than other sources, just barely enough to make it worth your while to lift your hand to click on a link, but certainly not enough to be worth actually paying for such info? Not even if you are a large enterprise with many millions of dollars riding on such forecasts? And the evidence for your claim "I know a lot about technology intelligence"? That's it? P.S. Since you won't respond to my private emails, I'll have to ask you in public: why isn't Consensus Point in your list of <a href="http://www.midasoracle.org/predictions/software/" rel="nofollow">Software For Prediction Markets</a>? So you are a bit fan of prediction markets because sometimes they are just barely more accurate than other sources, just barely enough to make it worth your while to lift your hand to click on a link, but certainly not enough to be worth actually paying for such info? Not even if you are a large enterprise with many millions of dollars riding on such forecasts? And the evidence for your claim “I know a lot about technology intelligence”? That’s it?

P.S. Since you won’t respond to my private emails, I’ll have to ask you in public: why isn’t Consensus Point in your list of Software For Prediction Markets?

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