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← There is a lack of research papers analyzing statistical properties of prediction market prices.
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Can we really assess InTrade’s *very short* prediction market on Van Jones?

Posted on September 7, 2009 by Chris F. Masse

Carlos Graterol has a partial analysis on the Van Jones prediction market at InTrade. Basically, Carlos Graterol (an InTrade fanboy) says that InTrade should be credited for the accurate prediction.

  1. Carlos Graterol should publish what the politicians and editorialists were saying last week (the resignation calls were numerous);
  2. The InTrade prediction market should have been created much, much earlier —when Glenn Beck started his ‘anti-czars’ guerrilla (at the beginning of August 2009).

vanjonespricehistory

intrade-van-jones-chart

About Chris F. Masse

Founder and President of Midas Oracle
View all posts by Chris F. Masse →
This entry was posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets, Market Expiry, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities and tagged betting markets, event derivative markets, prediction accuracy, prediction markets, Predictions, Van Jones. Bookmark the permalink.
← There is a lack of research papers analyzing statistical properties of prediction market prices.
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