Comments on: “Tap The Collective” failed to convince me about the usefulness of enterprise prediction markets.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Tue, 08 Sep 2009 22:19:51 +0000

Do businesses need enterprise prediction markets?
http://www.midasoracle.org/2009/09/08/do-businesses-need-enterprise-prediction-markets/

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 08:31:59 +0000

You are reasoning like a professor. Business people reason and act in a different manner. I will answer more fully at a later time.

By: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 22:39:08 +0000

You may predict on a daily basis, but I don’t know if you do it well; where is your track record and a repository of other track records to compare yours with? Prediction markets don’t do intelligence, their participants do it. You don’t replace people with prediction markets, you use prediction markets to figure out *which people* to believe. Just telling people to listen to “who have had positive results in a similar position in the past” is not good enough, because it is often hard to tell which previous forecast tasks are similar to this one, prior success might have been dumb luck, and those who did well before may not be trying very hard this time.

By: Chris F. Masse

Chris F. Masse — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 21:40:37 +0000

The â€˜HD-DVD versus Blu-Rayâ€™ problematic was (and still is) well covered by the technology media. The task is to:
- select the most informed sources of information;
- follow them (and the great thing with the Internet is that we have news aggregators like TechMeme.com, which highlights important news and debates);
- detect the important bits of information;
- assess the impact of the new info in the big picture;
- assess whether the organization’s strategy should be changed.
-
I perform technology intelligence on a daily basis. It takes time. It requires curiosity and analysis skills. As for your question of who is competent, what businesses do is that they hire employees who have had positive results in a similar position in the past. They hire someone who can prove that he/she has been successful in the past at doing technology intelligence. They hire the experience.
-
Prediction markets might be useful, sometimes. But we don’t need them to perform technology intelligence.

By: Robin Hanson

Robin Hanson — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 20:25:59 +0000

You think that just any “competent individual who can read” could have told Circuit City that blu-ray was going to win, and that in general companies have no need for prediction markets since it is cheaper and more effective to just hire such employees? OK, but how do you tell who is “competent” on a topic *before* that topic is resolved, rather than after? In what sense do you like prediction markets if you think their results can always be replaced by any “competent individual who can read”?