Monthly Archives: August 2009

Read the damn InTrade contract before you use the market-generated probability in your story.

“That does change the calculus.”

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Market Contract Statements, Market Prices & Probabilities, Prediction Journalism | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BetFair in France in 2010

BetFair gets clearance from France ahead of liberalization. Thanks to Alexander Ainslie for the tip

Posted in Exchanges & Markets, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

United Kingdom’s Prime Minister should apologize for the prosecution of Alan Turing that led to his untimely death.

http://petitions.number10.gov.uk/turing/ Alan Turing was the greatest computer scientist ever born in Britain. He laid the foundations of computing, helped break the Nazi Enigma code and told us how to tell whether a machine could think. He was also gay. He … Continue reading

Posted in Ethics, Politics, Science | Tagged | Leave a comment

Earlier this year, a panel of right-wing “experts” produced a report urging the committee to remove biographies of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Stephen F. Austin, and César Chávez, and instead add history about the “motivational role the Bible and the Christian faith played in the settling of the original colonies.”

Our good friend Mike Giberson has landed in a state governed by crazy lunatics.

Posted in Politics | Tagged , , , , | 3 Comments

How Does Society Identify Experts and When Does It Work?

Robin Hanson @ The Singularity Summit @ New York City, New York, U.S.A. – 2009-10-03∼04

Posted in Events & Meetings | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Are the prediction market startups lead by missionaries or mercenaries?

John Doerr of Kleiner Perkins on the difference between “missionary” and “mercenary” entrepreneurial founders

Posted in Business, Entrepreneurship, Finance, Psychology | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

BetFair are to change the time over which the premium charge is calculated.

BetFair are to change the time over which the premium charge is calculated. Previously: BetFair impose new “Premium Charges”, and their very active traders are up in arms.

Posted in Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services

Prediction Markets as a Medical Forecasting Tool: Demand for Hospital Services Background This paper presents the outcome of a study conducted at the Royal Devon and Exeter Hospital in which a prediction market was established in order to forecast demand … Continue reading

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Three Voices on Prediction Markets: The Analyst, the Believer, and the Skeptic

Three Voices on Prediction Markets: The Analyst, the Believer, and the Skeptic Followed from: – Crowdsourcing and Prediction Markets: Right-Timing Revisited Via the Spigit guy

Posted in Analysis (Accuracy & Precision), Analysis (Meta), Exchanges & Markets | Tagged , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

How to download AVATAR by James Cameron – The greatest science-fiction film/movie of all times (past, present, and future)

How to download the AVATAR movie/film trailer. Scroll down this page. “AVATAR” is a 3-D science fiction epic film/movie directed by James Cameron. “AVATAR” tells the story of an ex-Marine, thrust unwillingly into an effort to settle and exploit an … Continue reading

Posted in Art, Entertainment, Exchanges & Markets, Market Liquidity, Market Prices & Probabilities | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment