InTrade (in the U.S.) and BetFair (in the U.K.) are de facto monopolistic, real-money prediction exchanges. Will those monopolies spur users to revolt? Will we see an open-source movement in prediction markets? That’s the question I asked privately to some of our good friends. The guys admit they don’t have the first clue, but are interested in the question being asked. Are you?
That revolt against Apple was the seed for this present post. Enjoy —it is an excellent reading. Disclosure: I am now a Mac (since the beginning of 2009). I have no iPhone. I don’t use iTunes. I use open-source browsers. And I like the concept behind Google Voice.
How are they monopolies? I don’t quite follow.
Never been a victim of one?
Carlos,
They are de facto monopolies as they get more than 90% of the betting exchange market on their respective territory.
Existing prediction exchanges (real money or not) are small and pathetic. Most potential PM users don’t know they exist. There’s hardly anything to revolt against. Plenty of room for someone to create the market with something slick and/or open source.