Monthly Archives: July 2009

FanDuel co-founders = HubDub co-founders

Tom Griffths, Rob Jones and Chris Stafford Nigel Eccles and Lesley Eccles Previously: HubDub launches FanDuel exclusively thru TechCrunch UK, which is, of course, upbeat on its future. Here’s a more critical take.

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FAIL: “profit” made on a 0% increase.

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FanDuel (by HubDub) is launched exclusively thru TechCrunch UK, which is, of course, upbeat on its future. Here’s a more critical take.

HubDub is a huge success in term of Internet popularity (pageviews, time spent on the site, etc.). However, HubDub has no business model, other than trying to get bought up by some bigger fish. Which is why Nigel Eccles and … Continue reading

Posted in Betting, Business & Economic Models, Entrepreneurship, Internet Marketing - Internet Commerce, Internet Strategy, Regulations | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

CrowdCast is *not* going to die.

Jed Christiansen disagrees with my interpretation of his anti-CrowdCast post. I disagree with his own mis-interpretation of his own verbatim.

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Taxing real-money prediction markets to solve the US public deficits?

Three U.S. states are pushing plans for video poker and slot machines as their legislators hope gambling income will compensate for declines in taxes.

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Your search – “wiser than the crowd” site:slate.com – did not match any documents.

Your search – “wiser than the crowd” site:slate.com – did not match any documents.

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CrowdCast is going to die.

That’s the bombastic [under]-statement from prediction market kid Jed Christiansen (well known, usually, for his conformist views), who argues that VC-funded companies and small-growth markets don’t mix well. That is a reasonable argument. We should pull for CrowdCast, anyway. Previously: … Continue reading

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Twitter has destroyed the usefulness of the predictive models because information flows faster than your algorithm.

How Twitter is confounding predictive modeling

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The redesign of the Hollywood Stock Exchange website

… as seen by our good friend Peter Seed. Interesting take.

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CrowdCast = market mechanism = binary spreads with a market maker

Leslie Fine (CrowdCast Chief Scientist) to me: Actually, our mechanism is a market, it’s just not a stock market. We use an automated market maker to efficiently price every bet, adjust crowd beliefs, and price an interim sell. In essence, … Continue reading

Posted in All Best Posts Ever, Collective Forecasting, Exchange & Market Designs, Exchanges & Markets, Market Makers (Automated), Mechanism Designs | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments